Each team has a good defense. Both teams are allowing their opponents to under 25 points per game. Their offenses have struggle scoring touchdowns, usually settling for field goals. New England is averaging 13.8 points per game and the Saints, 15.5.

Fading the Patriots has been immensely profitable -- as we've mentioned frequently in this space -- but the key to doing that is by circling games against talented opponents where New England is getting too much credit. The opposite is the case here as the Pats are being devalued against a poor club after last week's terrible loss to the Cowboys. Not only is Bill Belichick surely looking for blood, his ferocious, attacking defense gets to prey on an injured Derek Carr. This is a good bounce-back spot for New England and a one-week respite where we play the Pats.

The beautiful nature of playing interception props is that they can happen any moment, even when the quarterback plays it perfectly...which the Patriots offense rarely does. This offense is built on playing ahead of the sticks on 1st down, striking on 2nd and staying out of 3rd and long. Once you see 1st down get stifled or moved back due to penalty, there's our spot...and it happens often. The Saints defense can force it quick.

Following the most embarrassing loss of coach Bill Belichick's career, look for the desperate Patriots to muster an ugly win against a short-handed Saints club that couldn't move the ball behind an ailing Derek Carr last week.

Rashid Shaheed is destined for a mismatch here. Just about anyone he lines up with he can outrun, and the Patriots are dealing with some heavy injuries. Christian Gonzalez is out for the season likely and J.C. Jackson will look nothing close to 100%.The Saints offense is looking embarrassing after last week and need a new outlet. An explosive play or two from Shaheed will be just what this offense is looking for.

Can't imagine either side scoring in the 20s. The Saints average 15.5 points per game, the Patriots 13.8. Newcomer Derek Carr has not worked out in N'Awlins. He's thrown for just two touchdowns and is enduring a sore shoulder on his passing arm. The offense has produced only four TDs all told. Not even RB Alvin Kamara's return from suspension has helped. Pats QB Mac Jones has yet to complete a toss on a throw beyond 25 yards. New England cannot count on its ground game, not with a mere one rushing score. Besides, the Saints' D yields just over 100 rush yards an outing.

Kendrick Bourne has been targeted 13 more times than any other Pats wideout. He should draw Paulson Adebo's coverage often Sunday. Adebo is dealing with a hamstring injury and has been ineffective in the two games he's played (ranked 114th among corners by PFF). Look for Mac Jones to target Bourne enough for the 28-year-old to go Over this number for the fourth time in five games.

Bill Belichick is coming off his worst loss, a 40-3 trouncing at Dallas. But before that his Patriots were respectable, losing close ones at home to Philly and Miami before beating the Jets on the road. New England has already played three of the top six teams in terms of Super Bowl odds. New Orleans is 2-2 after facing four mediocre teams. With Derek Carr playing through a shoulder injury, look for the desperate hosts to play a more efficient game and come out on top.

Kamara had one of the most unique receiving lines in NFL history last week in the loss to Tampa Bay: 13 catches but for only 33 yards as Derek Carr was simply dumping the ball off all game. I'm fairly certain Kamara will not average 2.5 yards per catch again but should get at least 5-6 receptions barring injury.

The Pats were dealt two big injury blows on defense with Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez out for the foreseeable future. But the players that remain should be good enough to slow down a Saints offense that this year has largely slowed itself down, ranking 29th in yards per play and last in red zone success rate. While this isn't an easier matchup for the Patriots offense in terms of yards per play, the Saints' mediocre sack rate on defense could make this a nice bounceback spot for Mac Jones. Let's fade the Saints as road favorites outdoors and the overreaction to New England's struggles last week.

More gross! The Pats look awful right now and Mac Jones was "benched" last week against the Cowboys. He wasn't really, though, and Bill Belichick can cook up a good enough defensive gameplan against a lifeless Saints offense where the Patriots will only need like 17 points to win the game. I'm banking somewhat on the Saints trotting out Derek Carr again this week. If they did it last week, why wouldn't they again in Week 5? Alvin Kamara caught 13 passes for 33 yards and Carr attempted 37 passes for 127 yards. The Buccaneers have a very good defense but if the Saints don't find something more, the Patriots will chokehold them like they did the Jets two weeks ago.