Brian Robinson has gone over this total only one time, and it was against the NFL’s worst defense (Denver) when he had 20 touches. If he stays under 18 touches and doesn’t break a big one, we should cash.

Dotson is not 100% healthy and he hasn’t hit this number all year long. Sure, he will have a breakout game, but until then I will keep winning playing the Under on his props.

In four games this season, Sam Howell has gone way over this number twice. The two times he was under, he had 31 and 29 attempts. The 29 attempts were in a blowout loss to Buffalo in which the team ran 18 fewer plays than projected, and the 31 attempts came in Week 1. Over.

The Bears cannot cover RB out of the backfield, and Gibson is the perfect guy to take advantage. He might get this on a single play. Go Over.

The last three weeks, D.J. Moore's median receptions are six despite the fact the Bears throw fewer passes than projected. I make the number five receptions. Over.

Fields has just one rushing TD this year but should have plenty of opportunities against a Washington defense that allows 30 points and more 350 yards per game. Although Chicago finally got some production from its backfield last week, Fields is still its most dangerous weapon near the goal line and provides some value at this price.

This rates as a potential letdown spot for the Commanders, who outplayed the Eagles much of the way last week only to come up three points short. The moribund Bears' issues are well documented, but they showed some signs of life last week despite blowing a 21-point lead against the Broncos. Washington doesn't play well ATS as a favorite and nearly lost its home opener to Arizona.

Bears/Commanders over 44.5 - The Bears are 4-0 over, mainly because of a very weak defense. Their QB Justin Fields had his best game last week and I expect much of the same versus a below average Washingotn defense. Look for Washington QB Sam Howell to have another solid game after leading his team to 31 points versus the Eagles.

Chicago+6 over Washington. Both teams are coming off of disappointing losses. The Bears have revenge from a 12-7 loss last year in Chicago. I do like what I saw from Justin Fields last week versus Denver. The Bears are 0-4, the Commanders are 2-2 but their stats look very similiar. My model has Washington by 4.

There are only so many options for Chicago. Chase Claypool is away from the team so Darnell Mooney’s 25% of team passing yards should be more than safe. Anything above 150 total passing yards should be good for Mooney to hit the over. Mooney had big 50+ yard games in Weeks 1 and 4. With Claypool out, a similar game should be in store. Our model has him projected for 41 yards.

Last week, three Broncos running backs combined to catch eight passes on eight targets for 64 yards. It continued a trend that's seen the Bears give up an NFL-high 234 receiving yards to opposing backs. That puts Antonio Gibson in a good spot, because he's run nearly twice as many routes as Brian Robinson Jr. Gibson has gone Under this number in three of four games. But the exception came against Denver, which gives up the second-most receiving yards to RBs.

The Bears have lost 14 straight games blowing a 21-point lead to the winless Broncos last week, losing 31-28, and they didn't cover the number again (0-3-1). Washington comes off an impressive outing against the Eagles losing 34-31. QB Sam Howell and all his WRs were in unison and it looks like the Eric Bienemy system has made its mark. Bears QB Justin Fields is feeling the pressure and last week’s failure only made the weight on his shoulders heavier. Washington is already 5.5 points better than the Bears on a neutral field, add in 2.5-points for home and I have a spread that should be -8. The value is crossing over 7 down to -6. Washington is the play.

DJ Moore has been playing great football and has hit this prop in each of his last three games. He's also enjoying some solid passing volume and efficiency (catching 17 of 22 targets over his last 3 games). The Washington secondary has been vulnerable to the deep ball all year and they likely will face a lot of passing from Justin Fields in a negative game script for the Bears. I like DJ Moore's total receiving yards and this longest reception prop.

The Commanders' top running back has impressed this year but the key for him is volume. He's averaging 15 carries for 65 yards per game thus far and if Washington leads late as expected, Robinson can expect a heavy dose of work. I'll predict that he exceeds 20 carries and tops 75 yards on the ground so we'll lay the juice to hopefully cash this prop.

The modest total is a byproduct of each team's unsung QB. Let's look past the reputations of Justin Fields and Sam Howell and see this: The defenses are ranked 29th and 31st. The Commanders have yielded 30-plus points the past three weeks, while Bears opponents are a field goal shy of hitting the 30-point threshold in every game. Chicago will send out a rookie fifth-round choice in the secondary because starters Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson remain shelved. Bears defensive coordinator Alan Williams resigned suddenly after two weeks, upending the unit. Expect plenty of points from both sides.

DJ Moore drew 22 targets over the past three games, twice going off for 100-plus yards, after being targeted just twice in the opener. He had a 27.3 percent target share in the 31-28 loss to Denver last Sunday. The Commanders have given up 33-plus points in three straight games with No. 1 receivers A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs eviscerating them the past two weeks. Newly confident after his best passing game ever, Justin Fields should connect often with Moore, getting us Over this number.

I don't like fading my Bears so I'm not playing much, but they have ruled out top CB Jaylon Johnson and safety Eddie Jackson, and the other starting safety and maybe the team's best defender, Jaquan Brisker, was a surprise late addition to the injury report Wednesday, where he was limited with a hamstring injury. I might trust a well-coached team to bounce back from Sunday's crushing loss, but the Bears are not a well-coached (or well-owned) team. Thankfully, Connor Bedard season starts Tuesday.

Moore has been great in two games and pretty much a non-factor in two. I'd rather have Mr. Potato Head as the Bears head coach than Matt Eberflus, and I'm not ruling out Ebeflus, who makes Marc Trestman look like Vince Lombardi, benching Moore offensively and using him as a gunner on special teams because he thinks that's best for the team. It's just really hard to be a Bears fan right now and getting to the point where I ache for the days of the USFL's Chicago Blitz. Both SL's model and AI projections have Moore finishing comfortably Over this number. He ranks Top 10 in the league in yards per target.

Terry McLaurin struggled to start the season as he had a case of turf toe that limited the speedy receiver. McLaurin is coming off the best game of the season against the Philadelphia Eagles where he torched the Eagles defense for 8 receptions for 86 yards and a few DPI calls. Terry gets a tasty matchup against a Bears pass defense that ranks in the bottom five in nearly every metric and are likely to be missing their two best defensive backs in Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson. We're getting a discount on this number as well as Terry usually settles in around 67.5 receiving yards.

You can make a strong argument the Commanders defense covers tight ends as well as any coverage unit in the NFL. Admittedly some matchup stats vs positions can often be arbitrary, however this is not the case with Washington. Last season the Commanders held the position to just 36 YPG (3rd lowest in the NFL). Through four games this season Washington has surrendered just 82 yards to enemy TEs. Kmet is running most of his routes close to the LOS as his 6.83 ADOT is ranked 34th at the position. Washington has quality safety play and I like their chances to limit Kmet.

Sam Howell is coming off arguably his best game as pro after leading the Commanders offense to 31 points on the road in a hostile environment. Howell showed off his underrated athleticism and rushing prowess picking up 40 yards on 6 carries. The threat of Howell's legs has been missing from Washington's offense and I believe we'll see a few designed runs on TNF. Even if I'm wrong at just 13 yards Howell can easily get home through the flow of the game.

The Bears are the NFL's laughingstock after blowing a 21-point, third-quarter lead at home to the woeful Broncos. Chicago hasn't won a game in nearly a calendar year. The Bears don't fire head coaches mid-season, or else Matt Eberflus likely would be gone after a head-scratching decision to eschew a short field goal late in a 28-all game. But this spread has gotten to the point where I have to take the Bears, especially with the improvement Justin Fields showed against Denver. Washington is 0-2 ATS at home, dealing with injuries to multiple receivers, and unaccustomed to the big-favorite role. The Commanders have given up 33 or more points in three straight games.