The Saints are getting a ton of love for Derek Carr joining the fold, but this is still a Dennis Allen-coached team with a thin running back group. (Also, Carr and Allen were 0-4 together with the Raiders.) Meanwhile, the Titans thrive as field goal or greater underdogs behind Mike Vrabel (22-9-1 ATS). The hope was to get the hook here, but it appears as if folks are catching on and this spread is about to drop under the field goal. Derrick Henry is back, Ryan Tannehill remains underrated as a game manager, and there is enough talent on both sides to overcome New Orleans’ legitimate home-field advantage.

Well, I told myself that I would play this if it dropped to -2.5 so guess I have to he says halfheartedly. I'm just not a believer in Ryan Tannehill any longer and Tennessee has new coordinators for the offense, passing game, running game and defensive passing game. Lot to break in. No Alvin Kamara for the Saints which was why I wasn't touching this above -2.5. Believe NO pulls it out by a field goal.

With the generally underappreciated Ryan Tannehill back under center and bruising RB Derrick Henry back in the fold, the TItans should have the edge against a Saints club that going through transitions at multiple positions and should be a work in progress for much of the season.

Ryan Tannehill is 36-19 SU as a starter with Tennessee, and he has good weapons in Treylon Burks, DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry and tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo. The Titans will have a more creative attack under new OC Tim Kelly. Mike Vrabel thrives in the underdog role and has a major edge over Saints coach Dennis Allen. Look for a tight game that goes to the wire, and grab the points.

The Titans were 7-3 last year, coming off an AFC No. 1 seed, when the wheels fell off due to injuries. Now they're healthy, added DeAndre Hopkins and are getting little buzz. The biggest mismatch here is coach: Dennis Allen (15-38 career record) vs. Mike Vrabel (22-9 as an underdog of 3+ points). Vrabel will make that 23-9.

Derrick Henry rushing for under 80 yards? In this economy? Henry topped 80 rushing yards in 12 of his 16 games last year, and the Tennessee offensive line added a big piece on the interior in first-round pick Peter Skoronski. The Saints' defensive line was not good a year ago, allowing more than 100 rushing yards 10 times and finishing 20th in yards per rush allowed. Their offseason additions don't move the needle enough for me to expect Henry to finish below the 80-yard mark, so I love getting this number even with DeAndre Hopkins boosting the passing game.

I am bullish on Okonkwo's long-term outlook, however he is playing in one of the lower-volume passing attacks in the league and Tennessee added alpha WR1 in Deandre Hopkins, who will command a significant target share. Okonkwo never eclipsed six targets last season and only had 4+ receptions in 3 of 17 games. The Saints were also the best defense last season at limiting opposing tight ends. New Orleans surrendered a paltry 3.4 receptions and 29 receiving yards per game to the position.

Think about the Titans' offseason moves. They improved their O-line in the draft, then they signed DeAndre Hopkins a year after cultivating talents in Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo. Things are changing just enough for a Titans team with a fresh new coordinator in Tim Kelly. This week they'll see a still-strong Saints run defense, which means it'll be easier for them to consider taking to the air. Given their upgraded receiving corps, I think they'll embrace it. Lastly, when Tannehill didn't go over 30 pass attempts last year, the Titans usually won or got blown out. In three of four games when he did go over 30 pass attempts, the Titans were in close games. That's exactly the situation I see on Sunday.

Tennessee gave up the most receiving yards to tight ends last season, 1,130, and now they face a breakout candidate in Juwan Johnson to begin the 2023 season. With new QB Derek Carr in New Orleans, who based on his usage of Darren Waller in Oakland / Las Vegas loves to throw to the tight end, Johnson is set for a bigger season. Last year he had 508 receiving yards but assuming he stays healthy, that feels about 250 light for me. I'm looking for a 50+ yard effort from New Orleans' top tight end in Week 1.

Remember the Titans…and that the horrific pass defense you saw down the stretch last year was a byproduct of cluster injuries on the back end. This Tennessee defense will make major strides with better health in 2023 and has the perfect DNA for winning on the road. Coach Mike Vrabel thrives as an underdog. He is 20-20 straight up and 23-16-1 against-the-spread in his career when his team is an underdog. Grab the points, but you won’t need them.

Derek Carr is set to make his Saints debut after spending nine years with the Raiders. Carr averaged 33.4 passing attempts last season and 34.9 attempts over his career. I like his chances to air the ball out at least 32 times Sunday considering he an excellent supporting cast of pass catchers led by Chris Olave. The Saints will also be without Kendre Miller and Alvin Kamara. New Orleans will face a Titans team that was a significant pass funnel last season due to the strength of the Titan's run defense.

Derek Carr's New Orleans debut comes against a defense that largely struggled last year, but Tennessee also had the most injured defense in the league last season. They'll be better this year, and adding DeAndre Hopkins to the passing attack will help keep the Titans competitive as an underdog, as per usual with Mike Vrabel. Rush defense may be a problem for the Saints, particularly early in the year with the new pieces in the rotation, and this could be a big Derrick Henry game. Make sure to get the hook at DraftKings or wherever else it's available.

While I don't suggest betting much of anything five weeks in advance I'm going to bend the rule just for this pick. The Titans' boast arguably the worst WR corp in the NFL (and we're writing this ahead of DeAndre Hopkins' free agency decision) coupled with a very questionable offensive line. It's basically Derrick Henry and the Saints know it. On the other side New Orleans has a new offense with Derek Carr to adjust to as well. However, both teams have defenses ready to go right out of the gate. I'll take my shot that we see a ton of handoffs and a running clock.