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FanDuel. Immediately after Game 3, Mike Brown pointed out the need for the Knicks to move the ball better. With the Spurs physically guarding Jalen Brunson the entire halfcourt and doubling Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges has to get more involved than his Game 3 dud. Bridges seem to struggle to find any flow after picking up two quick fouls within the first three minutes and subsequently sat for the next 12 game minutes. Look for the Villanova product to get back on track tonight.
The Knicks haven't lost back-to-back games since April 20 & 23 and haven't lost back-to-back at MSG since mid-January. This is one of those I won't stress losing because I'd like the Chalamets and Stephen A's and McEnroes (although I loved him in that memorable Curb episode: "Freak Book!") of the world to just go away. Would be thrilled with a Spurs win to ensure a Game 6. As far as I can tell, the road team has never won the first four games of any NBA Finals. I completely remember the '93 Finals when the Bulls won the first two in Phoenix and the Suns won Game 3 in Chicago, but we all know what happened onward: #MJdontloseinfinals
As long as the Spurs continue to dominate every opponent in the first quarter, we are going to continue playing the moneyline. San Antonio is now 11-2-2 to the first quarter ML since losing Game 1 of the Conference Semis to Minnesota. That includes the last two games vs. Thunder and all three games of the Finals. The Spurs average 31.4 points per first quarter, the second best in the NBA. They’ve won the first quarter of the Finals by 8, 9, and 11 points.

De'Aaron Fox has shot poorly in two of three games in this series, but he ended Game 3 on a high note, nailing the mid-range jumper that helped seal the Spurs' win. The Knicks are giving him great looks, both in the mid-range and from beyond the arc. With Stephon Castle having a big scoring performance in Game 3, look for Fox to pick up the scoring load in Game 4.
When a team has a prolonged win streak, the big worry is the game after a first loss. Even with the Knicks being at home, you are seeing the spread venture down to pick em territory. San Antonio has made enough defensive adjustments that game two’s shining performers in Mikal Bridges and Landry Shamet were non existent in game three. Defense gets the Spurs back in the series, as they pull off another road win.

De’Aaron Fox had the offense in game two with twenty points. Game three he stayed aggressive with his shot, and shot fourteen attempts. Although he had an off shooting night, staying with it is what matters. For the second straight game he came up clutch in the fourth quarter with six points. Take Fox to clear his points prop for the second time in the NBA Finals.

DraftKings. Dylan Harper cannot stop rebounding, as evidenced by his 9 rebounds on 19 chances in Game 3. Averaging six boards per game in the playoffs, Harper has cleared this line in 7/8 games in which he’s played at least 27 minutes. Victor Wembanyama continues to struggle to produce on the boards, and Harper’s .42 rebound chances per minute played is very close to the .46 of his 7’5’’ teammate. With the rookie continuing to play big minutes, this is an easy bet despite the juice.

Mikal Bridges was a virtual no-show in Game 3, scoring two points in 29 minutes. That's unlikely to repeat itself. The Knicks watched Jalen Brunson dribble too much in the loss, and coaches and players have stressed the need for better ball movement and cutting. Bridges is the Knicks' best cutter. Look for Bridges to be more involved and impactful as he clears this prop total for the 11th time in the past 13 games.

Landry Shamet scored between 13 and 16 points in four straight playoff games before a tough three-point Game 3 (1-of-8). Still, he’s firing, and he’s likely to get overlooked by a Spurs defense that has to contend with Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby. His one make in Game 3 was a 3, and seven of his attempts came from the outside. He hit three 3’s in each of the first two games. He hit 3-4 3’s in three of the four games vs. the Cavaliers last round, too.

The Spurs' defense centered around slowing Jalen Brunson. Brunson kept shooting anyway, went 11-of-25, and the Knicks lost. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns finished just 4-of-10 for 11 points. He scored 21 and 18 in the opening two games. He also grabbed just eight rebounds after securing 12 and 13 in the opening games, and one assist after four assists in Games 1 and 2 as well. New York needs KAT to be productive in the paint again. It should be a Knicks priority.

At one point in the playoffs, Victor Wembanyama had a stretch in which he averaged 13.9 rebounds over 10 games. However, he has averaged just 8.0 rebounds across eight games since then. After hauling in 12 rebounds in Game 1, he had nine and eight boards the last two games. With regards to this combined prop, Wembanyama has recorded 14 or fewer rebounds and assists in eight straight games. The Knicks are a big team with two very good rebounding centers, so I’ll take the under on this hefty number for Wembanyama.

OG Anunoby was excellent in Game 3, scoring 28 points on 9-for-13 shooting from the field. He has scored at least 17 points in all three games against the Spurs and is shooting 54.3% from the field in the series. Before he hurt his hamstring against the 76ers, he had averaged 21.4 points over his first eight playoff games. It took him some time to shake off the rust when he returned, but he has now scored at least 17 points in six straight games. I think he remains productive in the scoring column as the Knicks try to avoid losing both games at home.

FanDuel. Landry Shamet only made one three pointer in Game 3, but he got off seven attempts in 23 minutes. He’s now attempted 20 threes over the three games in the finals, including the second most wide open threes on the Knicks (10, per NBA tracking data). I expect the volume to continue to be there for Shamet, who shot 43% from three at Madison Square Garden this season.

Rookie star Dylan Harper has grabbed six-plus rebounds in six straight games. He finished with nine boards in 32 minutes Monday, the second straight game in which he played 32 minutes. His leaping ability and quickness were on full display. I would also go Over 6.5 at plus money.
The Spurs should be up 3-0 over the Knicks if it weren't for two poorly played final minutes of Games 1 and 2 by the Spurs. Knicks lead 2-1. But I think the Young Guns learned a great lesson from the two losses. They finished strong in the 4th quarter in Game 3 and just played their game. No running the clock or playing games by holding the ball. They finished the game strong, and that's a huge lesson learned for a young team. I think the best team in the NBA, with the highest rating, proved that to be true in Game 3. Spurs win Game 4.
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