Everyone knows this is a must win game for San Antonio. Videos have been circulating that the Spurs are having the best time practicing, warming up and giving interviews despite being down two in the series. The Garden is going to be the most electric it has been and maybe the last 20+ years and the Knicks are focused. New York’s experience, depth and desperation to bring a title home will be the difference maker along with the fans that are going to make it uncomfortable for this young Spurs squad.

Jalen Brunson has failed to clear this prop total in six straight games. But the volume continues to be there against the Spurs, as he hoisted nine 3-point attempts in Game 1 and eight more in Game 2. In three regular-season meetings with San Antonio, Brunson averaged eight 3-point attempts. Brunson shoots better from beyond the arc at MSG and I like the nice plus-money on him to make three treys in Game 3.

The Knicks have won 13 straight and have taken a 2-0 lead on the road in the NBA Finals against the Spurs, giving them a great shot at winning their first title since 1973. But before we crown them as champions, we have to ask ourselves, were the Knicks really that much better than the Spurs? The Knicks trailed in both games until late, and they capitalized on the Spurs' unforced errors. The Knicks shot 42% from the field in Game 2 while the Spurs shot 47%. The one thing the Spurs do have is too much youth. But something has me taking the Spurs again. Refs maybe? They're still the highest-rated team in the NBA, and based on the first two close games, Spurs.

Anytime a player misses an important stretch due to injury there is going to be doubt the following game. Stephon Castle went down tweaking his ankle with under seven minutes left in game two, and did not return. He appears to be fine, and I’ll back in game three. Overall he has been a far better producer on the road in the playoffs where in nine games he is averaging 22 points, versus just 16 at home in the postseason. Less perimeter shooting from Castle, as he attacks the paint. Take his over.

The Spurs find themselves down 0-2, where their youth showed in both games. The losses is what gets glorified, but the Spurs battled back with quick rallies in both games. Look for a bit more consistent of a game, and a better coaching job from Mitch Johnson. Where they can use their total roster for execution, instead of force feeding Wemby. Take the Spurs in game three.

The Knicks have a killer instinct and they’re not settling. This team is well-coached and focused. They haven’t lost a game in a month and a half. The Spurs match up talent-for-talent, but they’re also the youngest team to reach the NBA Finals in 50 years, which showed in the closing seconds of Game 2. Now they go to Madison Square Garden, first NBA Finals game in 26 years at the Mecca of Hoops. Offensively and defensively, the Knicks were tangibly better at home. I'll back the Knicks for the third straight time.

DraftKings / FanDuel. Devin Vassell has grabbed nine rebounds in each game this series, on 22 combined rebound chances. This now marks four straight games he’s cleared this line against the Knicks, who’ve proved to be a brutal matchup for Victor Wembanyama on the glass. Wemby is rebounding at a 15% lower clip against the Knicks than his average production. To compensate, the Spurs wings have had to crash the boards, including Vassell who has incurred a whopping 45% increase in rebound chances per minute against the Knicks. We saw the bump with Dylan Harper rebounds, now his line has adjusted - time to pounce on Vassell.

Yes, the Knicks are up 2-0, and yes, the Knicks have outplayed the Spurs. But what they haven't done is outscore the Spurs in the first quarter. San Antonio is 10-2-2 to the first-quarter money line since its Game 1 loss to Minnesota in the Conference Semis. The Spurs are also the second-highest-scoring first-quarter team in the NBA, averaging 31.4 PPG. Will the circus atmosphere help or hurt the Knicks early on? We don't know, but we do know the Spurs are the better first quarter team, which we've seen through two games.

We know Josh Hart can score because he averaged 12 ppg on the season. But through two games this series he’s managed a scant three points on 1-of-9 shooting. The Knicks have still won both games. Hart’s role has been rebounding, defending and passing, and he’s done those things well. San Antonio has defended Hart well, and sometimes with Victor Wembanyama, more so Wemby can roam and be free to help. Foul trouble limited Hart's minutes too.

Karl-Anthony Towns has scored 21 and 18 points in the Knicks’ first two wins this series, but his points are still a wild card this series. The Spurs rank 31st in assists allowed to centers (players guarded by Victor Wembanyama pass). KAT has had four assists in both games this series. The last two series vs. Jarrett Allen and Wembanyama, he’s averaging 12.2 rpg with 13 boards in four of those games. His R/A totals have been 16 or higher in 10 of the last 14 playoff games, including both this series.

The Spurs have leaned heavily on Devin Vassell, who has logged at least 36 minutes in both games of this series. He averaged 31 minutes a game during the regular season, but has played 34 minutes a night in the playoffs. The added playing time has resulted in him grabbing at least five rebounds in seven of his last 10 games, including nine rebounds each in the two games against the Knicks. With plenty of minutes likely coming his way again, I’ll take this over.

Foul trouble limited Josh Hart to only 18 minutes in Game 1. Still, he finished with four assists. That came on the heels of him posting six assists across 27 minutes in Game 2. Over 16 playoff games, he has posted at least five assists nine times. If Hart can avoid foul trouble, he could blow past this over. He is a player who thrives off the energy of the home crowd, which should also help his cause.

Dylan Harper has arguably been the best of the Spurs' top three guards in this series. His minutes went from 28 in Game 1 to 32 on Friday; he finished a team-best plus-12 in the 105-104 loss. Stephon Castle tweaked his ankle in the fourth quarter of Game 2 and shot 5 of 14, though he continued to play excellent defense on Jalen Brunson. The Spurs can't afford to play all three guards at once given the Knicks' size on the wings, and so far the best pairing has been Harper and De'Aaron Fox. Look for Harper, who grew up in New Jersey as a diehard Knicks fan, to play 30-plus minutes and clear this combo line for the fifth straight time.

DraftKings. After a pedestrian Game 1, Mikal Bridges came out guns blazing in Game 2 of the Finals, scoring 20 points on an efficient 8/13 shooting. He’s now cleared this points line in nine of his last eleven games dating back to the Hawks series, as his late season struggles are now well behind him. The matchup does suit Bridges’ shot profile well, as the Spurs were a bottom five team against mid range jumpers this season. Look for the Knicks wing to continue to make an impact in Game 3. I’d bet this to over 13.5 points (for a partial unit).