OKC has won at least two games in every series by at least 20 points, except this one. The dam is going to give and I'm betting on it happening in Game 5 with all the momentum of stealing Game 4 and the home crowd on OKC's side.

The Pacers blowing Game 4, and losing the spread verdict as well, still gnaws in Indy after being outscored 12-1 in the last three minutes. The Pacers have to be more efficient late on the attack end, and not solely rely on 3-pointers that weren't falling on Friday. Lots of different combos for Rick Carlisle, but finding the right mix can be a challenge; look for Carlisle getting Obi Toppin into the game to at least crash the offensive boards. Yes, the Thunder has big KO power, yet only in Game 2 has OKC been able to pull clear. Like Game 5 against Denver, this one figures to stay tight and not easy for the Thunder. Play Pacers.

Game 5 of the NBA Finals is tonight, and the series is knotted up at two games apiece, but a major thing happening in this series is that 3 of the 4 games have stayed under the total. This isn’t the play that got them here. Defense-minded first. Game 4 started out as one of the fastest of the series with Indiana taking a 35-34 first-quarter lead, but Indiana fizzled from there, ending up with a weak fourth quarter, scoring just 17 points. The Pacers led going into the fourth quarter and got outscored by 14 points by the Thunder. The Thunder is going to control the pace of Game 5 at home. Over is the play.

DraftKings. Despite his clutch shot making, I’m looking to fade the Tyrese Haliburton on his points plus assists line. Haliburton has only cleared this line in one of the four games so far this series - Game 3 in Indiana. Haliburton’s production has dipped on the road all season, and has stayed under this line in six of ten road playoff games. The Thunder will continue to use elite defenders Luke Dort and Cason Wallace at the point of attack to take away Haliburton’s looks. His time of possession and drives are both down in the Finals, despite a spike in his front court touches - the pressure has forced him into getting rid of the ball quickly.

DraftKings. Even though we’re on to Game 5, I still think the books are undervaluing Chet Holmgren’s combined points and assists line. Holmgren has joined Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams in playing big minutes. The big man is coming off 35 and 37 minute performances the last two games, as the Thunder continue to shorten their rotation. Holmgren has cleared this line in nine of ten games with 30+ minutes in these playoffs, and in 17 of 22 games in total this season.

Alex Caruso has achieved legendary status in Oklahoma City after providing the Thunder with excellent play on both ends of the court. Caruso is the most experienced member of the team and has proven to be one of the best offseason additions possibly in league history (yes, hes been that good). With that being said, this is a big combo line for Caruso who is shooting over 50% from both the field and from behind the arc. Considering the shooting volume, Caruso will have to continue to be red hot to eclipse this line.

OKC is now responding to the Pacers' newfound defense. SGA has found ways to draw fouls or just make the shot. The Thunder averaged 111 in their first three games vs. MIN before figuring them out and tallying 128 and 124 the final two games, not to mention they now have days to create a gameplan. The Thunder should also see natural upward regression of their 3-point shooting given how poor it was last game. The SportsLine Model has this projected at 118.

Pascal Siakam hasn’t exactly been efficient, shooting 43.6% from the field in the Finals. However, he has scored at least 19 points in three of the four games. One of the keys has been him getting to the foul line more often. He averaged 3.9 free-throw attempts per game during the regular season, but he has averaged 7.3 free-throw attempts in the Finals. Tyrese Haliburton isn’t a high-volume scorer and Myles Turner has gone cold from the field. If the Pacers are going to win Game 5, they need Siakam to score at least 20 points. I think he gets there.

This is as low of a total (223.5) as we've seen in this series after three of the first four games landed on the under. Some oddities the last two games, which were trending over into the 4th Q before the pace slowed. In Game 3, it was the Thunder going cold in the final stanza and scoring only 18 points. In Game 4, it was Indiana's turn, as the Pacers couldn't buy a bucket in the 4th quarter, and certainly not a triple, as they scored only 17 points. Into the Finals, both teams had been trending over and we think there's too much firepower on both ends for these games to continue slowing down in the 4th quarter. Play Pacers-Thunder Over.

Back in December, this line would have been at least 11.5 and as high as 14.5 at some points during the season for Isaiah Hartenstein. Despite his 5-2 under stretch in his last 7 games, he has crushed this over of 7.5 with a 13.8 average and ridiculous 71-7 (91%) over rate this season. Our projection of 6.2 points and 2.1 assists reflects his reduced output recently but that's still solid over value at this point in the season where lines are sharp.

The main reason why OKC was such a prohibitive favorite heading into this series was the Pacers were not an elite defense. But the Pacers have played like an elite defense in the series holding OKC to well under this line in 3 of the 4 games (110 in G1, 107 in G3, 111 in G4). I feel like OKC will figure out how to attack Indiana's defense, especially at home where the referee's whistle should be kinder. The Thunder averaged 111 in their first 3 games vs MIN before figuring them out and popping for 128 and 124 the final 2 games. The Thunder should also double their 3-point shooting percentage in Game 5 after Game 4's pathetic display.

The Thunder cover in 67% of simulations, winning this one by an average score of 118 to 103. Unlike the games in Indiana where turnover margin was relatively close, we do not expect it to be close at OKC with a projection of 16+ turnovers for IND and just 10 for OKC. We also project a +5% shooting advantage for OKC from 2-point range. The Thunder by -9.5 line is based on their turnover and 2-point shooting advantage. The value our model has on the Thunder is from a projected +9 rebounding advantage that the oddsmakers and betting markets aren't properly accounting for with OKC.

The Thunder have played 11 games at home and they have led 10 of them at the half by 8 points or more. We are not getting off this play now. OKC's defense is ridiculous in the first half at home and they average 62 points in those halves. Their first half home playoff net rating of +31.3 is ridiculous. the Pacers have a first half road +/- of -3.9. They couldn't get past 45 first-half points in the first 2 games at OKC. Their turnovers soar early in games on the road and its going to be nuts in the Thunderdome for Game 5.

I want to grab this now for Monday (Why is there no game Sunday? And no hockey either! Seems like a massive fail between the two leagues in a great TV window. Guess I'll watch 60 Minutes or talk to my wife or something. Better get up to speed on Twilight because that's usually the conversation.) before it potentially drops to 34.5. SGA is capable of scoring 50, but he has topped this number just once in the series. I tend to think the Thunder blow the doors off the Pacers in Game 5 so that may mean Gilgeous-Alexander doesn't play 40 minutes like he did Friday when he finished with 35 points. Hook definitely might matter, although our model has SGA at 33.5 points.