This is too many points to give to an Indiana team that has been one of the best in basketball since January 1. Stop thinking this is some kind of weird run that is going to end. The Pacers are at worst evenly matched with New York and probably a little better. I'd be tempted to take the money line, but I feel very good about six points.

Lots for the Knicks to worry about now that they have lost home-court edge after Wednesday's wild 138-135 OT loss. By us, more of a concern on the NY side might actually clue into the total projection, as the Knicks, as was mostly the case in the regular season meetings vs. the Pacers, have been easily goaded into playing at Indiana's faster pace, and the Game One scoreline had already easily cleared the low 220s total well before overtime; expect the recent over trends (Knicks over 6-2, Pacers over 7-1 in each of their last eight) to continue in Game Two. These teams scored between 221-253 in reg-season meetings and hit 250 during regulation on Wednesday, so over again seems within reach. Play Pacers-Knicks Over

In game two expect the Knicks to heighten their defense on the perimeter on guard Tyrese Haliburton and defending the three point line. All starters shot above fifty percent in game one except for Pascal Siakam. This may have been due to the Pacers layoff of eight days, but Siakam ranked 23rd in the NBA this season in field goal percentage. He will perform better in game two and eclipse his points prop.

One of the Knicks' advantages in this series is Karl-Anthony Towns using his varied offensive game vs. Myles Turner. KAT has now scored 30, 40 and 35 points in his last three meetings with the Pacers. This is a must-win for New York, so I expect Towns to play 35-plus minutes. He "only" played 39 minutes in Game 1, compared to three others Knicks' starters who played at least 42. He was plus-9 for the game, the only starter to record a positive plus-minus.

Andrew Nembhard scored 15 points in Game 1, shooting 6-for-10 from the field over 35 minutes. He only averaged 29 minutes per game during the regular season, but he has averaged 33 minutes per game in the playoffs. That has helped him average 14.6 points per game in the playoffs. With regards to this prop, he has scored at least 12 points in eight of 11 playoff games. The Knicks will likely focus their defensive efforts on slowing down Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and Aaron Nesmith, which should afford Nembhard with enough quality open looks to hit this over.

The Pacers stormed back to win Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals in dramatic fashion. Aaron Nesmith hit a bevy of key three-pointers down the stretch, Tyrese Haliburton tied the game at the buzzer in the fourth quarter and the Pacers completed the comeback by winning in overtime. With all of that in mind, they have somehow been made an even bigger underdog heading into Game 2. The Pacers have won five of six road games during the playoffs. They have shown that they can come back from big deficits multiple times. I think the Knicks win, but this is a lot of points. Look for the Pacers to keep things close enough to cover.

Downstream in these East finals, that fatigue factor for New York vs. Indiana’s 11-deep bench could indeed be a determining factor for this series in which the Pacers (who have also won five straight road playoff games this spring) have already stolen home-court edge. NBA history, however, suggests Friday could be a spot for the Knicks to dig in their heels, even if it requires invoking the venerable NBA playoff zig-zag theory, which over the years has been a recurring factor, often more pronounced in Game Two; this season, teams that lost outright in Game One are 8-5 vs. the number, while home teams that lost outright, historically a winner at a slightly higher percentage, bounced back to cover four of six. Play Knicks

This is a huge RA line for Josh Hart, who averaged under 16 rebounds + assists in the regular season. We’re getting an inflated late partly because he pulled down 13 rebounds and handed out seven assists in Game 1, although he benefitted from OT as well. Hart looks a bit gassed to me which makes sense considering his massive workloads that have carried over from the regular season. I’d play this for a full unit at 15.5 as well.

The consensus line sits at IND +5.5, so grabbing the extra half-point at +6 offers immediate value. The model didn't account for the chaos of Game 1—it focused on the fundamentals: Indiana's +9% edge in three-point shooting and New York's turnover issues, with the Knicks committing more than twice as many. In simulations, Indiana is shooting 37% from deep compared to New York's 35%, while turnovers are projected to be even. New York being a heavier favorite than they were in Game 1, despite the loss, likely reflects public sentiment rather than sharp analysis that "no way" a team loses both games at home, but we just saw these teams pull off that trick in the last round.

Loved it in Game 1 and love it here. I don't think The Garden is going to get in the Pacers heads. Indiana will look to run and gun again here and they are now averaging 119.5/G in the playoffs - best in NBA. Oh, and 120.5 on road. NYK is just 8th in D rating in postseason. The Pacers' depth and high tempo are a problem. IND is tops in the NBA playoffs in assist/TO ratio, EFG%, TS% (61.5!!) and shooting over 50% from floor. They've scored 114+ in 9 of 11 postseason games and will try to force the Knicks to run with them.