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Brad Botkin
Brad Botkin
Book Nerd
Brad Botkin is a senior NBA writer who has been with CBS Sports since 2011, the first seven as an editor, and over that time he has refined his wagering approach down to one basic rule: Do not trust your first instinct. This most often applies to the glamorous teams and players, but Overs fall into this category, too. Casual gamblers love the big teams and Overs, and the books steal value accordingly. When Brad sees a bet that screams one way, he is always intrigued to look deeper into the opposite angle. For Brad Botkin media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
LAST 4 NBA ML PICKS
+215
Record: 3-1
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Golden St. 95 @ Memphis 134 | 05/12 | 1:30 AM UTC

UNDER 219

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Memphis is going to struggle to score in against closeout Golden State defense, but at the same time, Memphis is a far better defensive team without Morant. I like that combo against a fairly high total.

Dallas 80 @ Phoenix 110 | 05/11 | 2:00 AM UTC

OVER 215

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Chris Paul isn't going to lay another egg, and back in Phoenix the Suns will come out hot and score late behind Paul and Booker. Dallas won't make 20 3s again, but it has found its stride offensively as well. Luka Doncic in the post puts the Suns in a pick-your-poison dilemma, but Phoenix, with the crowd into it, will force the pace a bit higher. Games 1 and 2 totaled at 235 and 238, respectively. Will this game go that high? I don't know, but I feel good about clearing 215.

Miami 108 @ Philadelphia 116 | 05/09 | 12:00 AM UTC

Miami 115

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Embiid came back in Game 3 and the Sixers rode the emotion and defensive uptick he provided. Miami is a better team. Harden isn't providing enough scoring and now Miami has a Kyle Lowry game under its belt. He'll be big in Game 4 and the Heat will re-take control of the series.

+215 3-1 IN LAST 4 NBA ML PICKS

Golden St. 101 @ Memphis 106 | 05/04 | 1:30 AM UTC

Golden St. -2

LOSS

ANALYSIS: The Warriors didn't get great nights from Klay Thompson or Stephen Curry in Game 1, and they only had Draymond Green for a half. On the flip side, if Jaren Jackson Jr. really going to shoot like Stephen Curry again? Warriors go home up 2-0

Golden St. 117 @ Memphis 116 | 05/01 | 7:30 PM UTC

Golden St. -135

WIN

ANALYSIS: The Grizzlies are coming off a hard series against Minnesota and they are not a great half-court team. Put having to play fast and the already fatigued legs together, and I think Memphis' shooting fades over the course of the game with Gary Payton II and the Warriors' switching defense all over Ja Morant, who will need his outlet shooters to hit shots for him. I also like the under in this game for the same reasons, and I will take the parlay.

+215 3-1 IN LAST 4 NBA ML PICKS