I've been on this all season and I'm sticking with it: When stars are out, books overreact because they know the pubic will follow. Kawhi Leonard is out and James Harden is questionable, but the Clippers, who want to secure a top-four seed, are still more than capable of playing with a Suns team that isn't as consistent as the roster suggests it should be. This will be a tight game one way or another. Take the points.

The Warriors are desperate for this win with a two-game lead over the Rockets, who they play on Thursday, for the final Play-in spot, but the Mavs are jockeying for postseason positioning as well and they are simply playing too well right now. Golden State should be 3-point dogs at minimum but reputation and the home court is buying them points with causal bettors. Don't fall for it. Dallas wins.

Golden State is a .500 team at home and well below that ATS. The Pacers are battling to stay out of the Play-In and will be able to score on a Warriors defense that is bottom 10 overall. Take the points.

Bogdan Bogdanovic is one of the most dangerous shooters in the league even if you don't hear enough about him. Without Trae Young the Hawks are going to be firing to keep up with the Clippers. Bogey goes over.

I like the Kings straight up in this one. Take the points if you're squeamish but Sacramento is playing well and just defeated the lakers recently in a game that showed the Lakers rally have no way of stopping the Kings once they get going. Domantas Sabonis can struggle with size and physicality, but he went for 20 rebounds and a triple-double last time out vs. Anthony Davis. Roll with Sac.

A lot of teams mess around with weaker opponents. Not the Thunder. They are young and brash and all go all the time, and they are going to blow the doors off Memphis.

I typically like to bet FOR the team missing a star because the line tends to get over-inflated, but in this case with Brunson back for New York and both Maxey AND Embiid out for Philly, it's too much. Knicks cover.

Atlanta is 5-2 since Young went down but it has come against weak/significantly injured opponents. New Orleans is whole and has been great ATS all season. Atlanta has been terrible ATS. This game plays out accordingly.

Doc Rivers is putting Damian Lillard in more positions to do what he did in Portland with a spread floor and higher pick and rolls. I think he gets hot down the stretch, and it starts with a big game against a Warriors team facing the always tricky first game back home after a road trip.

As a general rule, the line response to a superstar player being out is too extreme, preying on casual gamblers who don't realize how good every player in the NBA is capable of being with increased opportunity. Booker is out for Phoenix. OKC is a better team, but shouldn't be a six point favorite on the road. You have to ride this star-out theory over the long haul, and I'm sticking with it in this case. Give me the Suns.

The Nuggets have been on cruise control all season, but it's go time now. They've won three straight coming out of the All-Star break and Nikola Jokic is on a heater. The numbers don't support this bet. The Nuggets are under-.500 at home ATS while the Kings are 18-12 on the road. All the more reason to take Denver. That factors into this line. It's a different time of year for a different Nuggets team.

The Thunder are rolling and Houston is coming off a big win over Phoenix. Both teams defend and play really hard, but OKC's firepower pulls away as the game gets deep.

Everything points to Golden State here. The Warriors are rolling, at home, and Jamal Murray is out for Denver. Nothing is that easy. Take the points with the Nuggets, who are 9-7 without Murray this season with a handful of marquee wins, including one over the Warriors.

The Wizards are disaster, and OKC, though on a back to back, is riding the momentum of a major energy win over the Clippers. This is a team starting to feel itself as a true contender but is young enough to not take nights off. Bet the blowout.

The Clippers have only played four games without Kawhi Leonard this season. They are 2-2, but the two good teams they played blew them out. I don't think they get blown out here; in fact, I would play the money line on the Warriors, who stay hot and get a tight win.