Brandin Podziemski is back to coming off the bench for the Warriors, and it's where he should've been all along as a second-unit energy scorer. I like the freedom he'll have to hit the gas in non-Steph Curry minutes. He's scored in double digits five of his last seven games and has cleared the 10.5 number in seven of his last 10.

The Warriors got off to a great start against the Kings in their last outing without Stephen Curry, Draymond Green or Jimmy Butler, but as the game progressed they had a harder and harder time generating quality offense. I look for the same in this one. Butler and company will be enough to keep this a game for a while before Denver eventually pulls away.

There's always an overcorrection when stars are sitting in the NBA. This year we've already seen the Lakers cover without Luka Doncic or Austin Reaves, the Mavs cover without Anthony Davis, and the Bucks without Giannis and Pacers without four of their top five guys both win outright vs. Golden State, among other examples. With Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler both out for the Warriors, it screams Kings. Go the other way.

Julius Randle has been superb to start this season. With Anthony Edwards out bet on Brooklyn's defense to gravitate to Randle, who's always been a better playmaker than he gets credit for.

Myles Turner is coming back to Indiana and conventional wisdom says he'll want to stick it to his former team. Add in all the guys Indiana is missing and this seems like a no-brainer Bucks bet. Newsflash: No-brainers don't exist. Go look at Rick Carlisle's track record as a home underdog. The Pacers just took out the Warriors as a home dog and they'll cover again here against Milwaukee.

I'm doing it. I've picked the Thunder all along and I still think they'll pull this game out, but not by this many points. I'm pretty much all in on Indiana. If you're not by this point, that's on you.

OKC has won at least two games in every series by at least 20 points, except this one. The dam is going to give and I'm betting on it happening in Game 5 with all the momentum of stealing Game 4 and the home crowd on OKC's side.

The Thunder have been by far the better team in this series. A Game 1 Indiana miracle has it tied 1-1, but OKC is too dominant defensively and the shooting hasn't even come around yet. The Thunder have won two games in every series by at least 20 points. There is another blowout coming.

The Pacers haven't had much success slowing down Brunson as it is, and now his primary defender, Aaron Nesmith, is playing on a hobbled ankle. The Knicks were way more desperate than Indiana in Game 3. Indiana isn't going to let off the gas in Game 4, and it will be largely up to Brunson to keep the Knicks attached.

On top of the fact that Indiana's top guys haven't shot as well at home, New York is learning quickly that playing Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson together is creating on offensive buffet for Indiana. Those two played fewer minutes together in Game 2 and the total went easily under. I would bet on even fewer minutes for that tandem in Game 3, as Tom Thibodeau has already switched up his starting lineup.

This is too many points to give to an Indiana team that has been one of the best in basketball since January 1. Stop thinking this is some kind of weird run that is going to end. The Pacers are at worst evenly matched with New York and probably a little better. I'd be tempted to take the money line, but I feel very good about six points.

Nikola Jokic leads all conference semifinal players with 14.7 rebounds per game. OKC cannot keep him off the glass, and given that Jokic will likely play even more minutes in Game 7, the over is definitely the play here.

Nikola Jokic played over 46 minutes in Denver's Game 7 loss to Minnesota last season. He likely goes well into the 40s again on Sunday, and given that Aaron Gordon is either out or severely diminished, Jokic will have to carry an even bigger load. No way OKC keeps him under 30.

The Thunder are the best team in the NBA and by far the best team in this series. Don't let Denver's Game 1 comeback divert your attention from what we saw in Game 2, when OKC blew the doors off. That's the real gap that exists between these teams. Too much OKC defense and depth, and not nearly a big enough spread here. Double-digit win for OKC.

The Warriors, and specifically Stephen Curry, are being strangled by the Houston defense. The only way to loosen things up is for Jimmy Butler to be aggressive downhill. When he starts finishing and drawing fouls, the perimeter pressure will have to relent some. Butler knows this. It's his time. Forget every game he's played for the Warriors to this point. This is the game they got him for.