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    Brad Botkin

    Book Nerd

    Brad Botkin is a senior NBA writer who has been with CBS Sports since 2011, the first seven as an editor, and over that time he has refined his wagering approach down to one basic rule: Do not trust your first instinct. This most often applies to the glamorous teams and players, but Overs fall into this category, too. Casual gamblers love the big teams and Overs, and the books steal value accordingly. When Brad sees a bet that screams one way, he is always intrigued to look deeper into the opposite angle. For Brad Botkin media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    4-1 in Last 5 NBA Game Props Picks
    +408
    RECORD: 4-1-0
    +408
    4-1 in Last 5 NBA Game Props Picks

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    Brad's Past Picks

    Jun 18 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    88
    @ Boston
    106
    Analysis:

    Doncic is 1 for his last 15 from deep. He's tired. That's part of it. But I believe in Doncic's big-game gene, and with the season on the line and Dallas having to keep up with what will likely be a riled-up Boston offense at home with a chance to close it out, Doncic is going to need to heat up from beyond the arc.

    Pick Made: Jun 17, 10:53 pm UTC
    Jun 18 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    88
    @ Boston
    106
    +408
    4-1 in Last 5 NBA Game Props Picks
    Analysis:

    My gut says Boston controls this game and Dallas will be trying to stay within striking distance most of the night. I can see a seven-point lead at the break but Dallas finding a way to hang around and backdoor cover the full-game line with a score that looks closer than the game actually was.

    Pick Made: Jun 17, 10:56 pm UTC
    Jun 15 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Boston
    84
    @ Dallas
    122
    Analysis:

    Doncic has cleared this number just one in this series, and not by far. In Games 1 and 3 he wasn't even close. The key is the assists. Boston is making it extremely difficult on his with their ability to guard him one on one and not have to leave easy passing lanes open by doubling. Doncic is tired and not shooting well. Of course he could have a huge game, but everything we've seen so far in this series points to the under.

    Pick Made: Jun 14, 9:03 pm UTC
    Jun 15 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Boston
    84
    @ Dallas
    122
    Analysis:

    Tatum has played fantastic offensively besides his shooting. He's getting the extra defensive attention and the potential assists should be there again. If Boston shoots well, which I believe they will, those will add up, and I like Tatum to also settle into his own shot with the pressure of the not losing the title all but gone. Tatum was aggressive in Game 3 and I think he will be again. Take the over.

    Pick Made: Jun 14, 9:11 pm UTC
    Jun 15 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Boston
    84
    @ Dallas
    122
    +91
    9-7-1 in Last 17 NBA Picks
    Analysis:

    Nothing in this series has suggested the Mavericks have any chance against the Celtics. Why would that suddenly change? This should be a five-point line. Vegas is hoping you fall for the “backs against the wall” narrative. Don’t.

    Pick Made: Jun 14, 11:30 pm UTC
    Jun 13 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Boston
    106
    @ Dallas
    99
    Analysis:

    Dallas' 3-point shooting has to bounce back to some degree and a lot of that comes off Luka drive-and-kicks. I know Boston is trying to stay home on shooters and guard Luka one on one, but they were more willing to double in Game 2 and Luka's assists went way up. Look for a repeat in Game 2.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 9:54 pm UTC
    Jun 13 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Boston
    106
    @ Dallas
    99
    Analysis:

    Dallas hasn't been able to keep Boston out of the paint through the first two games. They have ti come down off someone, and Horford is the likeliest one to be abandoned. Plus, he should get a few more minutes with Porzingis either out or potentially limited.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 9:51 pm UTC
    Jun 13 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Boston
    106
    @ Dallas
    99
    +378
    16-11-1 in Last 28 NBA ATS Picks
    +190
    3-1-1 in Last 5 DAL ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    This is an overcorrection. What did you see in Games 1 and 2 that would warrant a 10-point line shift in favor of Dallas just because it's playing at home? Boston is undefeated on the road in these playoffs, and the Porzingis factor is being a little overhyped. We're not talking about Michael Jordan. I think Boston wins this game outright whether Porzingis plays or not.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 9:57 pm UTC
    Jun 10 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    98
    @ Boston
    105
    Analysis:

    Kyrie Irving scored 12 points in Game 1 and with Luka hurting in Game 2, he knows he needs to put up a big number tonight. The Celtics are guarding the Mavericks straight up so without passing lanes opening up these guys are going to have to individually create. I think Kyrie gets it going from 3 tonight.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 10:48 pm UTC
    Jun 10 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    98
    @ Boston
    105
    +378
    16-11-1 in Last 28 NBA ATS Picks
    +190
    3-1-1 in Last 5 DAL ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    With the Celtics guarding Luka and Kyrie straight up without helping, those two guys know they need to put their foot down in creating their own offense. I trust them to at least keep this game close, if not win and tie the series up.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 10:50 pm UTC
    Jun 07 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    89
    @ Boston
    107
    Analysis:

    Boston will have to get aggressive with doubles and blitzes on Luka as this series and even this game goes on, but early on I think they’ll try to stay rooted in switch and hold principles which will give Luka the chance to play one on one early. I think he has a huge first quarter and rides that to an over on this line.

    Pick Made: Jun 06, 9:28 pm UTC
    Jun 07 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    89
    @ Boston
    107
    +378
    16-11-1 in Last 28 NBA ATS Picks
    +190
    3-1-1 in Last 5 DAL ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Game 1 is a bit of a feeling out game and Boston has a lot more to figure out with how it will defend Luka than Dallas does defensively. While the Celtics are busy trying different things, I expect Dallas to find an early rhythm and ride that to a Game 1 victory. With 6.5 points, I feel even safer.

    Pick Made: Jun 06, 9:33 pm UTC
    May 31 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    124
    @ Minnesota
    103
    +378
    16-11-1 in Last 28 NBA ATS Picks
    +190
    3-1-1 in Last 5 DAL ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    For some reason everyone thinks the Wolves are some sure bet to win this game. This is way too big a line. The Dallas offense is far more reliable. Anthony Edwards still hasn’t had a truly efficient game. KAT has shot well one out of four games. Far more evidence in favor of Dallas to close what should be another close game at the end.

    Pick Made: May 30, 11:19 pm UTC
    May 29 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Minnesota
    105
    @ Dallas
    100
    +378
    16-11-1 in Last 28 NBA ATS Picks
    +190
    3-1-1 in Last 5 DAL ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    KAT has struggle mightily in this series and this is probably too little too late, but the Wolves won't die easily and Towns will get it going in Game 4.

    Pick Made: May 28, 11:39 pm UTC
    May 28 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Boston
    105
    @ Indiana
    102
    Analysis:

    McConnell has been playing like a borderline All-Star, and that's just not going to continue. I'm betting on Indiana's shooting cooling off some, which hurts the assists, which we'll put somewhere around 5-6. I think McConnell goes for fewer than 15 points.

    Pick Made: May 27, 7:23 pm UTC