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Brad Botkin

Book Nerd

Brad Botkin is a senior NBA writer who has been with CBS Sports since 2011, the first seven as an editor, and over that time he has refined his wagering approach down to one basic rule: Do not trust your first instinct. This most often applies to the glamorous teams and players, but Overs fall into this category, too. Casual gamblers love the big teams and Overs, and the books steal value accordingly. When Brad sees a bet that screams one way, he is always intrigued to look deeper into the opposite angle. For Brad Botkin media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

7-1 in Last 8 NBA Player Props Picks
+825
RECORD: 7-1-0
# 3 NBA EXPERT
+825
7-1 in Last 8 NBA Player Props Picks

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Brad's Past Picks

Dec 08 2024, 1:00 am UTC
League
Memphis
127
@ Boston
121
+690
10-3 in Last 13 NBA Picks
+85
2-1 in Last 3 NBA ATS Picks
+300
3-0-1 in Last 4 BOS ATS Picks
Analysis:

The Celtics have won 16 of their last 17 games against the Grizzlies, and Jayson Tatum has literally never lost to them in his career (13-0). This can't continue for much longer. Memphis is too good, and in this case, getting too many points.

Pick Made: Dec 07, 11:47 pm UTC on DraftKings
Dec 04 2024, 1:30 am UTC
League
Memphis
116
@ Dallas
121
+825
7-1 in Last 8 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Dallas is one of the stingiest 3-point defenses in the league, but Memphis scores a ton of paint points and the Mavericks will have to sink down some to mitigate that. Jaylen Wells is always ready to shoot quickly off the catch, and he has covered this number in five of his last six games.

Pick Made: Dec 03, 9:25 pm UTC on BetMGM
Dec 04 2024, 12:30 am UTC
League
Orlando
106
@ New York
121
+825
7-1 in Last 8 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Mikal Bridges has had a rough go behind the arc this season. His five 3s in his last game was against a battered New Orleans team and Orlando is going to be happy to leave him to prove he can do that again. Which is to say, Bridges will be the shooter, not the creator, in this one, and he's not terribly effective creating leverage against tight pressure as it is, which Orlando applies in spades. There shouldn't be a lot of playmaking opportunities available to Bridges, who has recorded fewer than three assists in four of his last fives games including zero in two of them.

Pick Made: Dec 03, 9:34 pm UTC on FanDuel
Nov 27 2024, 1:00 am UTC
League
Houston
117
@ Minnesota
111
+825
7-1 in Last 8 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

The Houston Rockets give up the fourth fewest 3s per game, both attempts and makes. Anthony Edwards has gone over this number in all but three games, but he has thrived on open looks (49% conversion rate with closest defender between 4-6 feet, per NBA.com tracking). He won't be getting a lot of those looks on Tuesday with Houston's ability to switch across the perimeter and stay attached to shooters because everyone can keep their man in front. If Edwards is going to go over, he'll have to do it against heavy contests. I'll take the under.

Pick Made: Nov 26, 9:27 pm UTC on BetMGM
Nov 24 2024, 1:30 am UTC
League
Golden St.
94
@ San Antonio
104
+690
10-3 in Last 13 NBA Picks
Analysis:

Golden State is on a back-to-back and Victor Wembanyama is active for the Spurs, who register as a top-10 defense and a bottom-10 offense. San Antonio struggles to score and the Warriors' shots don't fall at quite the same rate on tired legs.

Pick Made: Nov 24, 12:33 am UTC on Caesars
Nov 21 2024, 12:30 am UTC
League
New Orleans
100
@ Cleveland
128
+690
10-3 in Last 13 NBA Picks
+85
2-1 in Last 3 NBA ATS Picks
+285
4-1 in Last 5 NO ATS Picks
Analysis:

Usually I hate going against teams with key players out as we too easily overlook the abilities of every NBA player and the lines tend to overcorrect, but in this case, who is going to put the ball in the the hoop for New Orleans? Their top seven players are all out. Cleveland is on a back-to-back and could be hung over from its first loss of the season, but I don't care. I'll take my chances on the Pels simply fading away on their own.

Pick Made: Nov 20, 11:19 pm UTC on FanDuel
Nov 21 2024, 12:30 am UTC
League
New Orleans
100
@ Cleveland
128
+690
10-3 in Last 13 NBA Picks
Analysis:

The Pelicans are without Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Jordan Hawkins. The Cavs are without Darius Garland, which hurts their offense, but have the two big men to still limit things defensively against a positively G-League Pels offense. I don't see how this game goes over 217.

Pick Made: Nov 20, 11:24 pm UTC on Caesars
Nov 19 2024, 1:00 am UTC
League
Houston
100
@ Milwaukee
101
+690
10-3 in Last 13 NBA Picks
Analysis:

Damian Lillard is expected back but he hasn't played in over a week. Combine that potential rust with the defense of the Rockets, who also aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut, and I like an ugly low-scoring affair. Keep in mind, these teams have combined to fall short of the over almost 60% of the time this season.

Pick Made: Nov 18, 7:16 pm UTC on DraftKings
Nov 16 2024, 1:00 am UTC
League
Denver
94
@ New Orleans
101
+690
10-3 in Last 13 NBA Picks
+85
2-1 in Last 3 NBA ATS Picks
+285
4-1 in Last 5 NO ATS Picks
Analysis:

Nikola Jokic is out for personal reasons, but I always like teams with a star out to step up and play better than the public expects. New Orleans remains a MASH unit with all its injuries. I still like Denver to cover this line on the road.

Pick Made: Nov 15, 11:30 pm UTC on BetMGM
Nov 16 2024, 12:30 am UTC
League
Brooklyn
122
@ New York
124
+825
7-1 in Last 8 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

The Knicks' perimeter defense has not exactly been stingy when it comes to giving up 3-point attempts, and Cam Thomas is a gunner if you ever saw one. Brooklyn is one of the hardest playing teams in the league and should keep this one close, giving Thomas a full minutes load at getting to three triples.

Pick Made: Nov 15, 11:25 pm UTC on DraftKings
Nov 15 2024, 2:00 am UTC
League
Dallas
113
@ Utah
115
+825
7-1 in Last 8 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Late in his career, Klay Thompson has struggled to string together consecutive big games. He had 22 and six 3s on Tuesday against the Warriors. Don't bet on him backing that up. Fact is, Thompson has only totaled 22 points + assists in two of his 11 games so far. Yes, Kyrie Irving is out, which could mean more touches and shots for Thompson. I'm still playing the percentages.

Pick Made: Nov 15, 12:43 am UTC on BetMGM
Nov 13 2024, 3:00 am UTC
League
Dallas
117
@ Golden St.
120
+825
7-1 in Last 8 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Klay Thompson is making is return to face the Warriors on Tuesday for the first time since signing with the Mavericks. He's basically averaging three made 3s per game (2.9), and this is not an average game. He'll be looking for his shot early and often and he has a way of rising to the occasion.

Pick Made: Nov 12, 5:06 pm UTC on FanDuel
Nov 10 2024, 10:00 pm UTC
League
New York
121
@ Indiana
132
+825
7-1 in Last 8 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

It took a while, but Karl-Anthony Towns is starting to get aggressive offensively with 64 points on 43 shots over his last two games. That includes nine made 3-pointers. KAT is shooting a blistering 55% from 3 this season. It's just a matter of the attempts, and now that he's hunting shots, two 3s in a pretty safe bet in Indiana.

Pick Made: Nov 10, 5:38 pm UTC on DraftKings
Nov 10 2024, 8:30 pm UTC
League
Boston
113
@ Milwaukee
107
Analysis:

The Celtics have scored at least 117 points in eight of their 10 games. Milwaukee is a bottom-10 defense. Damian Lillard has been heating up and I can see the Bucks pushing the Celtics in a shootout, but they will not be stopping Boston.

Pick Made: Nov 10, 5:46 pm UTC on DraftKings
Nov 10 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Houston
101
@ Detroit
99
+690
10-3 in Last 13 NBA Picks
+85
2-1 in Last 3 NBA ATS Picks
Analysis:

The Rockets are a top-shelf defensive team and Houston's +4.1 point differential points to a much better team than Detroit at -2.6, even if both teams have been nearly identical ATS (Rockets 5-4, Pistons 5-5). Yes, the Pistons are coming off an emotional win vs. Atlanta on a Cade Cunningham game-winner; all the more reason for a little letdown. Houston covers here.

Pick Made: Nov 10, 4:52 pm UTC on BetMGM
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