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Sun, May 117:30 pm UTCBall Arena
Track OnCBS Sports
Oklahoma City
Thunder
OKC
Last 5 ATS
W/L75-16
ATS57-32
O/U48-42-0
FINAL SCORE
92
-
87
Denver
Nuggets
DEN
Last 5 ATS
W/L55-38
ATS46-47
O/U50-40-1
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
75-16
Win /Loss
55-38
57-32
Spread
46-47
48-42-0
Over / Under
50-40-1
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
OKC @ DEN
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

MONEYLINE
OKC @ DEN
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OVER / UNDER
OKC @ DEN
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50%
PUBLIC
50%
MONEY
51%
PUBLIC
49%
MONEY
Over90%
PUBLIC
Under10%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Avatar
Total Points + ReboundsIsaiah Hartenstein Over 19.5 Total Points + Rebounds -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NBA Player Props Picks
Prop's Analysis:

FanDuel. Isaiah Hartenstein has cleared this line in all three games this series, and in all five games against the Nuggets this season. The Thunder need him on the floor defensively against Nikola Jokic, and his presence as a roll-man in the pick and roll allows the Thunder to expose the Nuggets weak interior defense (Denver ranked 27th against roll-men this season). Look for Hartenstein to bounce-back after a rough 5/14 shooting performance.

Pick Made: May 11, 6:59 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total PointsRussell Westbrook Over 10.5 Total Points -130
LOSS
Unit1.0
+3169
164-113 in Last 277 NBA Player Props Picks
Mike's Analysis:

Russell Westbrook only scored eight points in Game 3. That was his first full game in the playoffs in which he didn’t score at least 14 points. Michael Porter Jr. played well, which resulted in Westbrook logging just 22 minutes. This line has dropped by three points compared to Game 3. I’m not going to overact to one disappointing stat line. I like Westbrook to bounce back and hit this over.

Pick Made: May 11, 6:30 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Points + ReboundsIsaiah Hartenstein Over 19.5 Total Points + Rebounds -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+3169
164-113 in Last 277 NBA Player Props Picks
Mike's Analysis:

Isaiah Hartenstein only shot 5-for-14 from the field in Game 2. That’s rare for him, considering he shot 58.1% from the field during the regular season. Still, he finished the game with a double-double. He has recorded at least 20 combined points and rebounds in all three games against the Nuggets. Going back even further, he has at least 20 combined in five of seven playoff games. I’ll take this over again.

Pick Made: May 11, 6:25 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total Points + Assists + ReboundsAaron Gordon Over 25.5 Total Points + Assists + Rebounds -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+806
52-35 in Last 87 NBA Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

Aaron Gordon has elevated his game in the playoffs, especially at home. He has cleared this prop total in all but one home playoff game. With Denver playing a small rotation and Nikola Jokic attracting most of the attention, Gordon is in a great spot to continue his all-around production.

Pick Made: May 11, 5:32 pm UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadDenver +6.5 -108
WIN
Unit0.5
+3136.25
160-89-1 in Last 250 NBA Picks
+401.5
30-23-1 in Last 54 NBA ATS Picks
+366
14-8 in Last 22 DEN ATS Picks
Matt's Analysis:

Do I think the Thunder win? Probably. But 6.5 on the road against the best player in the world, whose team leads the dang series seems awfully steep. And it's not like anyone is out injured. It would mark only the 10th time this decade that Denver is getting at least 6 at home in a regular season or playoff game (6-3 ATS in those nine) -- some books had 6 for Game 3, which the Nuggets won outright, but some closed at 5.5.

Pick Made: May 11, 1:41 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadOklahoma City -6 -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+2109
129-98-2 in Last 229 NBA Picks
+1048
58-43-1 in Last 102 NBA ATS Picks
+1058
25-13 in Last 38 DEN ATS Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

Trendlines in this matchup have been identifiable; when OKC wins, it's usually a blowout (27 ppg, counting reg season), but when Denver wins, it's close under (6 ppg). We've seen this trend already in this series with the Nuggets winning a couple of nailbiters in Games 1 & 3 while the Thunder rolled up a 43-point blowout in Game 2. As it was Denver needed some late heroics again from Aaron Gordon to force the OT in game 3, but with a thinner bench there are not as many options for the Nuggets if one of their big guns should have an off night. If liking the Thunder, don't worry about the spread...it hasn't mattered when beating Denver. Play Thunder

Pick Made: May 11, 8:07 am UTC on DraftKings
1st Quarter Spread1st Quarter Oklahoma City -1.5 -118
WIN
Unit1.0
+175
4-2 in Last 6 NBA Game Props Picks
Stephen's Analysis:

The model and oddsmakers favor OKC to win this game, with money line odds around -235. When OKC wins, it's typically a dominating performance, often featuring a strong +10 streak in the first quarter. Therefore, if you believe in OKC's overall victory, betting on them to cover the first quarter spread of -1.5 is more appealing given their recent history.

Pick Made: May 11, 4:25 am UTC on BetMGM
1st Half Spread1st Half Oklahoma City -3 -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+185
4-2 in Last 6 NBA Game Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

This just might be a zig-zag series, but even amid that trend the Thunder taking the first half remains a thing. They are super fast starters, especially on the road, and coming off a listless finish in Game 3 I anticipate a stellar first half here. OCK +6.6 on road in 1st half, best by far in NBA, and scored 61.4 in first half on road in regular season (tops) and 7th in pace - trends that have held in playoffs. Nuggets cannot get it together early at home, with Game 3 the latest example. Nuggets were 27th in first half D rating at home and just 14th in first half +/- at home. Maybe OKC can't keep it going for 48 minutes, just 24.

Pick Made: May 10, 1:48 pm UTC on Caesars

Team Injuries

Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025
Avatar
PG
Nikola Topic
KneeOfs
Denver Nuggets
Wednesday, May 14, 2025
Avatar
SF
Hunter Tyson
AnkleOut
Sunday, Feb 23, 2025
Avatar
PF
DaRon Holmes II
AchillesOfs
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