Micah's Picks (1 Live)
Devin Booker stepped up in his last six games, going over his personal total posted in five of them. He's taking on his veteran leadership role and leading by example at the most critical time of the season. He scored 30 points or more in his last three games and five of his last six. The team will rise with Booker, and they all know what time it is. It’s time for Book to cook. Over.
The Suns won two of three games this season against the Blazers, including both games at Portland, and lost the game in Phoenix without Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks. Everybody's healthy now except for Jalen Green, who may miss Tuesday with a knee injury. The Blazers have won five of their last seven games, while the Suns have won three of their last five. The Suns need to take care of business to advance and not have to play Friday night for their season. Suns to win at home.
The Nationals have momentum after sweeping Milwaukee, when they were +150 or higher in all three games, scoring an average of 6 runs per game. They've averaged 11.8 runs a game, going over the total 11 times, which is why the total is sitting at 7.5 with Paul Skenes pitching. The Nationals are hitting the over in 73.3% of their games, which is second only to Tampa Bay at 76.9%. Nats starter Cade Cavalli has pitched very well in his three starts, all of which have gone over. Skenes has gone over all three games as well, but in his last two outings, he has only allowed one run each. The bet is against the high Skenes total. Under.
The Orioles have won five of their last six games and are currently tied with three teams for first place in the AL East. The Diamondbacks have won six of their last eight games and are currently 9-7, sitting third in the NL West. The Diamondbacks have been on the road for their last six games and have three more at Baltimore, while the Orioles boosted their recent stats against the White Sox and Giants. Ryne Nelson makes his fourth start of the year and comes off his best outing so far, allowing one run in 5.2 innings. The Diamondbacks were the underdog even before likely Orioles starter Dean Kremer was announced. Diamondbacks to win.
Put yourself in Coach Dan Hurley's position. He's seen what's happening in the tournament with Michigan scoring 90 points or more against its opponents. He has to strategize for it, and I think he's going to figure out a way not to play their game. His team allowed an average of 65.1 points per game this season. He should be prepared and ready to execute. Michigan was not covering heading into the Tournament and scored 72 or less against Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. Hold them down; it can be done. Duke beat them 68-63 in February. Hurley carries championships as badges on his sports coat. Michigan under 75.5, and Connecticut also has a chance to win.
Connecticut's path through the NCAA tournament went through the Big Ten Conference with victories over UCLA, Michigan State, and Illinois. Now it's Michigan's turn. In all those instances, they kept the game low scoring, and all three stayed under the total. They also beat Duke along the way. This is when coach Dan Hurley is at his absolute best, and his ego will not allow anything less in prime time. Connecticut plus the points.
Michigan shot 51.1% from the field while holding opponents to 38.4%, which ranks No. 1 in the nation. Michigan has taken its game up a notch, with everybody elevating their play to make them look like they did in November and December, when they were blowing everybody out. That team is back, and they have scored 90 points or more in all four of their tournament games. Consistency. They’ll score at least 80 against Arizona.
I'm looking at the total in the first Final Four game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis between Illinois and Connecticut. The total shows 139.5, while I made the total 134. Illinois scores a lot of points, but they can play slow-down ball as well and have stayed under their last three, making it 22 for the season. Connecticut has stayed under in four of its last six games and 20 overall on the season. The under.
The Phillies have won their last seven games against the Rockies, and they're at Coors Field today for the Rockies home opener. The Rockies got swept at Miami but won two out of three at Toronto in the last series. The Phillies are 3-3 after winning the last two against the Nationals. The key to this bet for me is Aaron Nola pitching in thin air in April and giving up one of those monster innings. He gave up three runs in five innings in his first start against the Rangers, which included giving up two home runs. Michael Lorenzen gave up three runs in 4.1 innings in a loss to the Marlins. The Phillies are 4-1 to the Over. Over the play.
The Giants have struggled to hit the ball this year, averaging only 2.3 runs per game, but they won their first two games in San Diego and scored 9 runs in one of them. I think the situation with the starting pitchers favors the under in this game. We have David Peterson starting for the Mets, who didn't allow any runs in 5.1 innings in his last start against the Pirates, and Robbie Ray makes his second start after losing 3-0 to the Mets in his first start. Under is the play.
The Diamondbacks have beaten the Braves four straight times, the last meeting in June, and they just came off a sweep of the Tigers. After starting the year 0-3, they're now 3-3, and Ryne Nelson is on the mound, and he's an attractive underdog. He's facing Reynaldo Lopez, who won his last start against the Royals as a $1.44 favorite. Nelson lost to the Dodgers in his first start. Arizona to win.
The Crown Tournament is an 8-team, 5-day tournament that features an NIL price pool of $500,000. It tips off with Oklahoma and Colorado in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Arena. Oklahoma opened as a 5.5-point favorite, and it's up to 9.5 because Colorado lost its three leading scorers to the transfer portal. This is a Buffaloes squad that started 12-3 and finished 17-15. It's been over 2 weeks since the teams last played, but Oklahoma started figuring things out at the end of the year, covering their last seven games, winning six of them. They finished the year 19-15 and were one of the last cuts to miss the NCAA’s. Oklahoma to win by 10 or more.
Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite over Tennessee in the Elite 8 matchup at the United Center in Chicago, with the winner going to the Final Four. Michigan has turned it up a notch since losing the Big Ten championship game to Purdue, and they’ve scored 90 points or more in all three games since. They look like their former selves from November and December when they were destroying teams nightly. Michigan has won and covered the last three meetings with Tennessee. Tennessee has a great story in the tournament, but the fact remains that they lost four out of their last six games before the tournament started. Michigan has the No. 1 defense in the nation, allowing 38.6 shooting. Michigan covers.
Purdue faces Arizona in the Elite 8 in San Jose, and Arizona is up to a 6.5-point favorite in this game. Arizona has won 12 games in a row since it lost its only two games of the year in back-to-back fashion to Texas Tech and Kansas. Arizona went 35-2, covering 22 games. It's a formidable opponent for Purdue to tackle, but I think they can. Purdue has had three meetings with Arizona since 2007 and won all three, the last time in 2023. Purdue has won seven straight games, including beating Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. Purdue has 19.7 assists per game and is No. 1 in the nation in assist-to-turnover margin. Purdue wins outright.