The Rangers have stayed under 68.1% of the time....

Texas has won the last five meetings with the Royals, but they come in here at opposite ends of the spectrum, with the Royals on a six-game losing streak, scoring just 11 runs, while the Rangers have won four straight with a rock-solid bullpen. The Rangers are the best under team in MLB, staying under 48 games, or 67.6% of their games. On the mound tonight, we have Seth Lugo for the Royals going against right-handed Jack Leiter. The Rangers have had a couple of offensive outbursts while winning seven of their last eight games, but they still only average 6.99 a game, and the Royals average 6.97. Under is the play.

Game 5 of the NBA Finals is tonight, and the series is knotted up at two games apiece, but a major thing happening in this series is that 3 of the 4 games have stayed under the total. This isn’t the play that got them here. Defense-minded first. Game 4 started out as one of the fastest of the series with Indiana taking a 35-34 first-quarter lead, but Indiana fizzled from there, ending up with a weak fourth quarter, scoring just 17 points. The Pacers led going into the fourth quarter and got outscored by 14 points by the Thunder. The Thunder is going to control the pace of Game 5 at home. Over is the play.

The Phillies and Marlins have gone over the total six straight times while splitting three games apiece as they begin a four-game series in Miami. The reason I say under is because it looks like Sandy Alcantara is back to being his normal self with his last two games going under and his last game being his best, going six innings and no runs allowed against the Pirates. The Marlins average 9.4 runs a game, but I think it'll be different today with Mick Abel only allowing four runs in his three starts. Just the under.

The Thunder are in the same situation as they were in the Denver series, where they lost Game 1 at home and Game 3 on the road and responded with the Game 4 win. They only went 2-5 against the spread in the series but went on to win Game 7, and I think it's going to be something like that here as well as the Thunder play Game 4 at Indiana. The Thunder fizzled out in the 4th quarter, scoring only 18 points. It was trending over all game until late when OKC couldn't make a shot. They shot 47% for the game and 45% from three, and still lost thanks to 17 turnovers. The Pacers aren't going to slow down. Just the over.

The Yankees and Red Sox met last week at Yankee Stadium, and all three games went over the total. They weren't just nipping at a total of 8.5, they were crashing the 15,17, and 18 range. One of the games was started by Garrett Crochet, who starts today. Boston has stayed under in the last two games in wins against Tampa Bay, but in their previous five games, they went over the total. Ryan Yarbrough starts for the Yankees, and last week against the Red Sox, he allowed eight runs in four innings. Crochet allowed five runs in six innings. Just the over.

The Blue Jays have won 12 of their last 14 games, and ace Kevin Gausman is on the mound at Philadelphia. They just swept the Cardinals at St. Louis, one of the toughest places to win for opponents this year. The Blue Jays have won Gausman's last four starts. The Phillies have been struggling the last couple of weeks and have lost Ranger Suarez's last two starts. Over the last two weeks, the Phillies have hit .227 while the Blue Jays lead baseball during that span, hitting .294. Everybody's hitting for the Blue Jays. Blue Jays to win.

The Thunder are one of the best cover teams of all time, winning 81 games and covering 63 times, and doing so at home and on the road equally. They've already shown the Pacers are overmatched by winning and covering three of the four meetings this season. The Pacers Game 1 win was a one-time thing. In Game 2, the Thunder shot 49% from the field, 39% from three-point range, and scored 123 points. That was just an average Thunder game where they had all their parts working. They've been doing it all season. Thunder to cover.

Game 2 went over the total with the Thunder winning 123-107, making it four out of the last five meetings going over the total. The Thunder have come in now winning and covering three of the last four meetings against the Pacers, and the Pacers win in Game 1 barely happened. Both teams consistently run and score quickly. The Pacers started slow in the first quarter and first half of both games, but came alive in the second half. Both teams will score plenty. I don't see how that changes in Indianapolis. Over the total.

The Blue Jays have been the hottest team in baseball over the last two weeks. Over their last 13 games, they've hit an MLB-best .302 and have won 11 of their last 13 to move to 37-30, just four games behind the first-place Yankees. They’ve won five straight games against the Cardinals, and the Cardinals have three straight home losses to drop them to 22-13 at home on the year. Today's total is 8.5, and they've gone over 11 of their last 12 games. Just the over.

The Rangers are only 31-35 on the season and even worse on the road at 11-22, scoring only 3.3 runs per game, but it's the pitching that allows only 3.3 runs per game that's keeping the Rangers alive on the season so far. That's 6.6 runs total per game by the Rangers, and we have a total here at 8.5, and it's been like that for most of the season as the Rangers have stayed under 45 times. The Rangers have lost Tyler Mahle’s last three starts, but they stayed under his last five games and 9 out of his last 10 games. Just the under.

Sandy Alcantara stopped his streak of six consecutive games allowing 4 runs or more by allowing only two runs in his last start. Maybe it's a sign that he found his Cy Young form again, but the Marlins ended up losing that game to the lowly Rockies. The Marlins have lost eight of his last nine starts, and in the game that they won on May 28th against the Padres, Alcantara allowed six runs. I have to take the Pirates, who have won a season high four games in a row, with Mitch Keller, who started the Pirates last loss. The Pirates are having fun for the first time this season, ride the streak.

Cleveland has lost nine of their last 14 games while the Reds are one game over .500 at 34-33 and ride a four-game win streak. Andrew Abbott is the reason I am betting the Reds today. He's been on it all season, with the Reds winning seven of his 10 starts. He had gone six straight starts of allowing one run or less until allowing five runs against the Brewers in his last start. Last month, he beat Cleveland by allowing no runs in five innings in a 3-1 Reds win. Reds win again.

The Marlins took three out of four in the opening series against the Pirates, but it's the Pirates with the better record on the season at 26-40 to the Marlins 24-39, thanks in part to the Pirates sweeping the Phillies three games over the weekend. The streak is the key for betting the Pirates Monday, who have Mike Burrows pitching his fourth start of the year, and his last one went really well, pitching 5.1 innings, allowing no runs in a 3-0 win over Houston. Miami comes with Eury Perez, who hasn't started a game since September 2023. The Pirates are 14-14 since firing Derek Shelton and making Don Kelly the manager. Pirates to win.

The Reds have reached .500 again with a 33-33 record after sweeping the Diamondbacks over the weekend. They also swept Cleveland last month in Cincinnati and now meet in Cleveland for a three-game set in the battle for the Ohio Cup. This will be the first time Reds manager Terry Francona returns to Cleveland, where he managed through 2023. Cleveland has lost four of their last six, but one of those wins was behind Luis Ortiz, who beat the Yankees 4-0. That's part of the reason the price is so high; the other part is because Wade Miley makes his second appearance of the year and first start. The two clubs have stayed under in the last eight meetings. I bet the Reds.