Micah's Picks (3 Live)
The Suns strategy Sunday against the Blazers was to slow the game down to a drip, and the Blazers came away with a 92-77 win. The Suns were without their three best players, and the strategy didn't work as they shot 36% from the floor and had 19 turnovers. That strategy halted the Blazers streak of eight straight games over the total. They're at home tonight against the Timberwolves, and I expect that fast pace to continue with the Timberwolves, who have gone over three of their last four ball games. They've also gone over the last two meetings, the last being February 11th in Minnesota. This game gets over.
Michigan had scored 82 points or more in six consecutive games until they scored a season low 63 points in Washington DC against Duke. They got manhandled in that game like no other, and they need to get back to Michigan basketball, which is scoring 89 points a game. Minnesota will give its finest attempt, but it is in no position to dictate anything. Duke, maybe; Minnesota, no way. In a regular game, Michigan shoots 51% from the field and 35.7% from 3-point range. Minnesota is going to be in trouble following the Duke win. Michigan shows off. Michigan over 83.5 points.
Michigan (25-2) scored its fewest points of the season (63) on Saturday against Duke, its second loss. They shot 40% from the field and 24% from 3-point range while turning the ball over only 7 times. Duke dictated the pace, controlled the game, and you could see frustration on Michigan's faces as they made only 6 of 25 threes. Michigan will get back to who they are and use Minnesota (13-14) as a test session. Michigan has dominated teams all season, averaging a 89-68 score. I look for them to win big as if they're playing Rutgers or Penn State. Michigan to cover.
Mismatch in the Sun Belt conference with Coastal Carolina visiting Georgia State. I made the line with Coastal Carolina -5, it came Georgia State -1, and moved to the road team -1.5 where it's at now. Georgia State has lost seven of its last eight games. Coastal Carolina has gone 17-12, covering 17 games, and they're 8-7 on the road. Coastal Carolina comes off a win as an underdog against Marshall and has covered four of their last five games. Coastal Carolina is playing better ball at the moment. Coastal Carolina to win.
St. Louis is 25-2 on the year, which brings a big target on their back. They lost their last road game at Rhode Island 81-76 as a 9.5-point favorite. They were losing at home in their last game to VCU, but had a furious comeback in the second half to win. Dayton has won and covered their last three games, but it was on January 30th that they lost 102-71 to St. Louis. Dayton played well that day, but had 15 turnovers, and St. Louis shot 62% from the field. St. Louis has the No. 1 defense in the nation, holding opponents to 36.3% shooting. The Billikens are 7-1 on the road, and I think they win this one by double-digits. St. Louis to cover.
We've got a battle in the Sun Belt conference with Old Dominion visiting Marshall, who sits a half-game out of first place. These teams hooked up in Norfolk, Virginia, on February 11th, and Marshall won 81-79, but ODU got the cover at +2.5. That's been the theme all season for Old Dominion: they play with heart, but barely lose. They're 10-19 on the year but have covered 15 games, whereas Marshall is 18-11 and has only covered 10 games. ODU has covered four of its last five games. Marshall has covered once in their last seven games. ODU plus the points.
North Texas (15-12) only allows 66 points per game, which has helped 16 of their 25 lined games stay under the total. FAU (15-12) scores 80.3 points a game but has stayed under in 13 of its 25 lined games. I think Sunday’s pace will favor North Texas, playing at home. This defense allows only 22 field goals per game and only 5.9 3-pointers per game. Both figures are top 10 in college basketball. FAU has stayed under in four of its last five games. North Texas has won and covered the last two meetings, and both games stayed under 141. The last time they met was at FAU last February, won by North Texas 71-61. That's a score I'll take on Sunday. Under.
Don't you think Michael Porter is due for a big game? In three of his last four games in January, he scored 30 points or more. They were all Nets losses, but Porter played strong. In his game on January 29th against his former Nuggets, he scored 38 points and made 7 of 15 three pointers. But in February, he doesn't have any games over 23 points. He's playing the Hawks, who have lost four of their last five. They're playing their third game in four nights just like the Nets. I think this is a game the Nets can win, and I think Porter's going to score more than 24 points.
The Blazers have won four of their last five games, and all five games have gone over. In fact, they've gone over seven games in a row. The Nuggets played last night and lost to the Clippers, and it went over the total as well. The Nuggets have lost five of their last seven games, and I think they get into a shootout tonight in Portland. The Nuggets are 35-21 to the over this season. Over is the best play in this game.
Virginia Commonwealth has a 10-game winning streak going, and St. Louis comes off a rare loss. The Billikens had an 18-game win streak snapped Tuesday night at Rhode Island as a 9.5-point favorite. But I like St. Louis at home, where they're 16-0 this season. I like them to bounce back after the humiliating loss against a VCU team they’ve beaten the last two times. St. Louis has a defense that's No. 1 in the nation, allowing only 36.5% shooting and holding opponents to 27.6% from 3-point range, also No. 1. St. Louis has to prove themself again, and I like that. I'm betting on that St. Louis defense to set the tone.
Iowa has won the last three meetings against Nebraska, but has been on a two-game losing streak and has failed to cover its last three. Nebraska has three losses this season, all to the three best teams in the Big Ten: Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan. Iowa is 8th in the conference with eight wins so far, but those wins have come against second-tier Big Ten teams. Nebraska has proved that it is worthy of being a first-class tiered Big Ten squad. Their defense only allows 39.8% shooting, and offensively, they are fourth nationally in assists-to-turnover ratio (1.95). Total team effort. Nebraska averages 79.4 points and is 6-1 on the road. Iowa is outclassed in this game. Nebraska wins.
Houston (23-2) rides in on a six-game winning streak. The Cougars are visiting Ames, Iowa, where they will be underdogs for the first time this season against Iowa State (22-3). Houston has returned to its traditional format of controlling games with defense, staying Under the total in its last five games. Houston is now No. 2 nationally, allowing 61.3 points a game. Iowa State averages 84.2 points and shoots 50.6 percent from the field, and the Cyclones come off a beatdown of Kansas after losing at TCU. Iowa State has stayed Under the total in its last three games. This total is only 134.5, which is built on both teams' defensive trends. While the Cyclones are 14-0 at home, I bet on the Houston defense.