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We got two starters pitching at the absolute best of their life going at it today at Fenway Park this afternoon. The Diamondbacks have won eight of the last nine pitched by Brandon Pfaadt and haven't allowed an earned run between his last four. The Red Sox have won Payton Tolle’s last seven starts, and in his last two he's only allowed one earned run. The Diamondbacks will again be without second baseman Ketel Marte, who's a huge part of their offense. Under is the way to go in this game.

The Mets have won three of their last four meetings with the Padres, but the Padres are coming in with Walker Buehler, who they've won their last six starts behind. He faced the Brewers and the Diamondbacks in his last two and only allowed two combined runs. Those were blowouts, with the Padres winning by 4 or more in each game. The Padres are hot at 67-58, while the Mets are looking at 2027 carpet samples. Padres to win.

The Astros have only gone 6-6 behind Hunter Brown this season, and he's looked a little off since coming back from injury on June 16th. He's only looked like the dominant pitcher from last year once on July 25th, when he shut down the White Sox for seven innings. Bryan Woo hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts, and his last start is a big deal because he went five innings allowing no runs on the road at Yankee Stadium, but the Mariners lost 4-1. Woo may have fixed something in his mechanics, but the road has still been terrible for him, with a 1-8 record in 13 road starts and a 6.22 ERA. Astros to win.

With the Diamondbacks' gritty 2-0 win against Chris Sale and the Braves last night, they're now tied for the final wild card slot. They've also won seven of their last nine against the Braves and have their most consistent starter of the season in Eduardo Rodriguez, taking the mound as an underdog. The Braves have won Grant Holmes' last seven starts, and he hasn’t allowed a run in his last two games, but Rodriguez is no slouch at 11-4 with a 2.70 ERA. Corbin Carroll is in his hot zone in his last four games, getting six hits that include two doubles, a triple, and two home runs. Diamondbacks to win.

Cleveland has lost 16 of their last 21, and last night's 7-5 loss to the Padres was a perfect example of everything going wrong for Cleveland. They jumped out to a 3-0 lead and had their best starter on the mound, and ended up with another loss. That's losses in six of their last seven games. The Padres are the hottest team in baseball, and they are an underdog today. They lead MLB with a .282 batting average over the last 30 days. Padres to win.

The Padres are rolling better than anybody in baseball, winning 15 of their last 19 games, and that's part of the reason I think Michael King should be a favorite over Gavin Williams today. San Diego has beaten Cleveland the last five times they met. Cleveland is actually a better road team than at home, and overall they average only 3.96 runs per game. The Padres won King's last start against the then-hot Astros when he only allowed one run in six innings. Williams had his streak of 10 strikeouts or more end at five consecutive games after the White Sox beat him in his last start. Cleveland has lost four of his last five starts. Padres to win.

The Yankees have won the last four meetings with the Mariners and also eight of the last nine. The Mariners come into this game in a world of hurt with a six-game losing streak and a 56-65 record, 4.5 games out of the last AL wild card spot. The Yankees have won their last two against the Mariners and look for the sweep on Thursday. The welcomed news is that they put 10 runs on the board Wednesday. Logan Gilbert has lost his last two outings against the Yankees, including March 31st when he gave up five runs in Seattle. Max Fried bounced back to his old self in his last outing against the Braves, allowing no runs in 6.1 innings. Yankees to win.

Luis Garcia has only played with the Yankees in seven games and has hit just one home run so far, and none in his last six games. But I think Thursday afternoon at Yankee Stadium against Logan Gilbert and the Mariners is the perfect opportunity to hit his second homer. Gilbert has allowed four home runs between his last two ballgames spread over 13.2 innings. He’s served up 19 home runs on the season. Garcia has hit 24 home runs this year, but he went 0-for-4 yesterday. He hits one out against Gilbert.

Bryan Woo can't possibly be as bad as advertised on the road, but I see that he's 1-8 with a 6.70 ERA in 12 starts on the road, and it makes me believe he's scared of the road. The sports psychologist might be able to fix it, but his problem is deep. His last outing at home was against the Tigers, and he pitched seven innings, only allowing three hits and no runs. His previous two starts were on the road against the Dodgers and Rangers, and he allowed five runs each. Tonight he’s at Yankee Stadium. Guess what I think happens.

The Rangers have won four of their last five games to sit at exactly .500 on the year at 59-59. They play the Angels tonight, whom they've lost four of their last six to, and the Rangers have a 27-32 road record. The bet today is on MacKenzie Gore, who pitched six innings of shutout ball against the Giants his last time out. The Rangers have won four of his last five starts, and tonight I think he slows down the Angels, who hit him for seven runs on July 8th. He's got paybacks on his mind. The Angels have lost Reid Detmers' last 6 starts. Rangers to win.

The Blue Jays have won six of the nine meetings with the Red Sox this season, but the Red Sox took two of three during their current hot streak on July 26th. The reason for this bet, besides the Red Sox being incredible this season, winning 27 of their last 32 ball games, is that the Blue Jays are pitching Jameson Taillon. The Blue Jays withstood the Astros in his last outing, where he gave up three runs, but in his last start with the Cubs he gave up seven runs to the Pirates. I think the Red Sox hit him hard tonight in Toronto. Sonny Gray is 14-2 this season with a 2.78 ERA. Red Sox to win.

The Tigers are 56-59 on the season in a very winnable AL Central, only 3.5 games behind the leader. They traded Tarik Skubal away, but they're very much alive for a postseason berth with what they have. The Giants are lost, sitting at 48-67, and they just had a yard sale of their best players. They can't wait for the season to end. The Tigers have won the last four meetings. Keider Montero gets the start, taking over full-time for Skubal in the rotation. So far on their West Coast road trip, the Tigers have gone 5-1, and in the last three games at Seattle, Dillon Dingler hit a home run in all three games, going 7-for-14 with six RBIs. Tigers to win.

Drew Rasmussen is pitching his absolute best on the season, winning his last three games and allowing only two combined runs between them. His last two were his best as the Rays won 1-0 against the White Sox and 1-0 against Cleveland. But those two shutouts were at home, where Tampa Bay has the best record in baseball (41-18). On the road, it's a different story as they sit 27-28. Seattle is the same way with a 33-26 record at home and 23-34 on the road. The Rays have won five of the last six meetings. Final note: the Mariners are tied for last in hitting at .230 on the season. I like the Rays to win.