Micah's Picks (3 Live)
Micah's Past Picks
Georgia survived the brutal gauntlet of the SEC schedule and is playing Texas for the SEC championship at Atlanta the same place that they beat Clemson to start the year. Despite barely getting past Georgia Tech at home their wins all season have been huge against the best opponents. And the last three games Carson Beck hasn't thrown an interception and has thrown 11 touchdown passes. Georgia is only 3-9 against the spread but one of those covers was against Texas at Texas, 30-15. It was one of their smoothest wins of the year and probably Texas strongest opponent of the year. I'm trying to find it figure out how Texas passed them in the ratings. I'm on Georgia.
The Big 12 championship game is at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, and features two teams that are 10-2, Iowa State and Arizona State. Both teams have a common loss to Texas Tech. The biggest difference between the two is that ASU covered 10 of their 12 games and ISU was 7-5 against spread. ASU will be without their top receiver but ISU still has to stop Cam Skattebo who hasn't been derailed often with 17 touchdowns and 1,398 rushing yards as well as 35 catches from the backfield for 468 yards. You want to change your defense scheme to try and stop him but then you become vulnerable elsewhere. Hard to stop a tank. I'm on Arizona State to win.
UNLV and Boise State hookup for the Mountain West Conference championship game tonight in Boise. But a big difference in the spread from 6 weeks ago in the game they played was in Las Vegas. The spread was Boise State -4 then and now the game is Boise -4 in Boise. What gives? Perception of UNLV's wins are better? UNLV hasn't lost on the road this year and they haven’t in their last eight games on the road. UNLV is 2-2 against the spread after losing to Boise State. And Boise State won all five of their games since beating UNLV but they haven't covered their last two and are 2-3 against the spread. I think the rating differential is skewed. Boise State to win.
Western Kentucky beat Jacksonville State 19-17 over the weekend, ending a two-game losing streak for them. It was a must-win for them. Jacksonville State had won eight straight games until they lost at Western Kentucky. It was a game that wasn't as meaningful as it was for WKU. Now the game means something. This game will be played in Jacksonville, Alabama. The home edge is worth 4 points. Jacksonville State has the No. 3 rushing program in the country averaging 257 yards per game. It'll be about 35° with no wind in the game. Jacksonville State to win.
Aman-Ra St. Brown is going to have a nice game today against the Packers who have been chirping about them not worrying about his play tonight. It's just talk and take what you want from it but I think St. Brown feels disrespected and he needs anything he can to motivate himself for a game. When the ball comes his way the ball is usually caught. He had five receptions in his last game for 73 yards and six receptions for 62 yards in the game before that. And the game before, he had 11 catches, 161 yards, and two touchdowns. He hasn't scored a touchdown the last two games which is a surprise since he has nine. St. Brown over yardage.
The Lions are 11-1 and 9-3 against the spread and face the Green Bay Packers that are 9-3 but only 6-6 against the spread. To me this is a gift line. You're saying that these teams are almost equal despite the games being in Detroit and that could be further from the truth. I think the Packers are 7 points better at home. Green Bay was getting two and a half at home against the Lions and now it's three in Detroit? And we know about the Lions with the No. 2 offensive team at 395 yards per game and the No. 1 scoring team at 31.9. The Lions moneyline because the price is too cheap.
Stephen F Austin and Texas Rio Grande Valley hook up and the last 6 times they played they've gone over the total listed today. Rio Grande Valley scores 87 points per game and it's one of the top teams in the nation with three-point shooting sitting fourth in 3-point attempts at 35 and 9th and three-pointers made at 12. Stephen F Austin is the 8th best defensive team in the nation at holding opponents to 36% and they only score 66 points per game. It's a battle of will and who can impose their will over the other. Rio Grande is 6-0 against the spread and 5-1 to the over. First-year head coach Kahil Fennel is doing a nice job. I'll take the over.
Jameis Winston only threw for 27 attempts last week because of the snow, tonight it'll be 38° with 4 miles an hour wind and no precipitation. In his three previous starts for the Browns he had 46 attempts against the Saints, 46 attempts against the Chargers, and 41 attempts against the Ravens. Chances are they're going he's going to need to throw. Over 35.5 attempts.
Bo Nix gets a lot of the acclaim for the recent Broncos success, but their defense is carrying the load ranked No. 3, allowing 296 yards per game and also ranked first in sacks with 42. The Broncos are 7-5 and 9-3 against the spread. The Browns offense is surely better with Jameis Winston but they still rank 29th overall. The Browns recently won two home games against the Steelers and Ravens but haven't gone on the road since Week 2 at Jacksonville. The best thing about Bo Nix is that he's gained much confidence as the weeks go by. In his last three games, he's thrown eight touchdown passes with no interceptions. Broncos cover.
The 5-6 49ers are in a tough spot with a two-game losing streak only covering four of their last five games and they might not have their quarterback ready for Sunday’s game at Buffalo. Brock Purdy might be out and Brandon Allen would be the starter with Joshua Dobbs as a backup. The 9-2 Bills are on the run now of winning six in a row and covering five of the six. They've gone over their last three games and that's the point, they keep coming and don't stop. I don't see how the 49ers will keep up and that’s even with Purdy, without him the Bills win by 20. I have to lean Bills here, something like 27-6.
We’ve got a great game with the Eagles and Ravens and it's too close to call but what I like is the over. The last four meetings between these two clubs have gone over and the Ravens have gone over 10 of 12 games this season. The Eagles have won seven straight. The Ravens have the 24th-ranked defense allowing 355 yards per game. The Eagles have the No. 1 defense allowing 274 yards a game and they'll face the Ravens No. 1 offense that puts up 426 yards a game. Eagles score 26.9 points a game, Ravens score 30 points a game. The temperature will be a cool 40. Over is the play.
Middle Tennessee and UAB both want to score and the total may look high at 157 but it should be closer to 170. Middle Tennessee averages 81.4 a game and UAB averages 76.8 allowed per game. UAB averages 84 points scored per game. UAB brought back three starters from last year and several key bench players that went 23-12 in coach Andy Kennedy's 4th year. Middle Tennessee is 5-2 and they've covered four games while UAB is 4-4 but they're 5-2 going over. Just the over.