Bailey "Over" Ober has cashed some tickets for us already this year with his outs prop and we're going to keep riding the hot hand. He's gone six full innings in back to back starts (both vs the Tigers FWIW) and at 15.5 outs, I have to back him again here. The Angels are starting to look like a solid matchup for pitchers again this year and Minnesota got just nine innings combined from Tuesday and Thursday's starters, leaving a lot of work to the bullpen. The Twins are in the midst of 31 games in 33 days, and could use any help to save the bullpen they can get. Their top 2-3 relievers have been used a good bit the last few games too.

The price on Ross Stripling to get a 4th strikeout is a bit light in my opinion at -125 (Draftkings). Over this line in 4/5 starts and while Baltimore hasn't been an easy strikeout matchup, that's partially why this is at 3.5... Baltimore can go with a lefty heavy lineup and Stripling was better at striking out lefties last year with a 12.5% swinging strike rate, but now that number is only half what it was, with little difference in pitch mix. One difference is a higher usage of his sinker, but this lineup has solid numbers against that pitch. If he limits using the sinker and leans on his heavier whiff % pitches, I'd feel much better about this one. Play to -150.

I like getting in here under 17.5 outs against Reese Olson, who has failed to complete six innings in 3/4 starts so far. He very well could pitch into the 6th inning again but to fully finish that inning is something totally different. Olson also has a Detroit Tigers bullpen behind him that's been one of the best in baseball and they're relatively rested over the last few days. Kansas City has some solid hitters in their lineup and over the last couple weeks they've been just about league average for OPS vs right handers, but that was down slightly from being a top-10 offense earlier this year.

Gray’s first two starts of the year came against the Cubs and Astros, two of the tougher teams to strike out, but the two starts after that have been encouraging. He struck out nine batters against Oakland and seven against Detroit, two of the highest strikeout teams, but this matchup with Seattle shouldn’t be much worse. Also, in a relief appearance this weekend vs Atlanta, Gray threw 24 pitches over 1.2 innings, with four of five outs coming via the punch out. He has an impressive swinging strike rate above 15% to righties and has raised that rate above 11% vs lefties. Even if he's been outperforming some of his underlying stats so far with run prevention, I think we can get a 6th K.

Landon Knack was not great but not bad in his MLB debut, going five innings and striking out four batters. But facing the same lineup he just saw won't be easy, and I'm betting on this stingy Nats lineup to see Knack even better their second time around. Over the last two years at AAA, Knack was not a huge strikeout guy, recording less than one K/inning with lefties being pesky. The Nats can run quite a few lefties in their order but that's yet to be seen... They also hit Knack hard 50% of the time, his called/swinging strike rate was unimpressive and he hasn't been a guy to get super deep into games, as 80 pitches has been about his limit.

My buddy Propstarz is already on this one and for good reason. Dean Kremer is a pitcher we should continue fading on strikeouts, mostly due to his high contact rates and minuscule 5% swinging strike. Despite the Angels being better than average as a strikeout matchup, at 5.5 I'm happy to fade this number. Kremer has only eclipsed this line one time this year, when he needed 7 full innings and two strikeouts in his final three batters to hit the over.

Yusei Kikuchi absolutely turned the Yankees lineup inside-out last start, and he's ran up nine strikeouts in back to back outings. The Yankees lineup he faced has been much worse with strikeouts of late than some of their numbers have caught up to yet, and the previous matchup with Seattle was certainly a good one for strikeouts as well. I think the number on Kikuchi should be 5.5 when looking at this matchup with the Royals, who are bottom five for K% to lefties so far (small sample), while Kikuchi's swinging strike rate is only slightly above average and he's struck out nearly 36% of right handed batters, vastly different than his 25% rate last year.

LA ace Tyler Glasnow takes the mound against Adrian Houser. After losing the first two games of the series (and now three series' in a row), I'm expecting a big effort from the Dodgers to avoid the sweep and end this home stand on a high note. New York already won the series and doesn't get an off day tomorrow (LA does), so I could see the Mets be frugal with their top bullpen arms, while the Dodgers have their top-2 relievers available. Will Smith also sat yesterday so he should be back in the lineup. Adrian Houser has an xERA over five and has walked 10 batters in 15 innings, with a 43% hard hit rate.

Aaron Nola struck out nine Rockies last time, but had four or less strikeouts in his previous three starts. He cruised into the 8th inning in that start, punching out his final five batters to accrue so many strikeouts. This matchup with Chicago is "middle of the road" for K's, and their lineup should feature at least four lefties, who Nola has struggled to strike out this season. 3/9 K's came from lefties in his last start and Zack Wheeler struck out eight White Sox yesterday, but half were vs lefties. The last two games for Philly have been easy, with starting pitchers going 7+ innings, so we could see that rested bullpen in action early if Nola has trouble. Played at -138 on Fanduel.

Shoutout to my buddy Propstarz for tipping me off here, as the price at +116 represents value and is worth at least a half unit. Oakland may be striking out a ton against left handed pitchers, but Logan Allen's profile is one I want to fade. Allen needs a 6th strikeout to beat us and he's gone to that level only once this season, when he struck out six in 6.2 innings but needed to punch out his final two batters, jumping from four to six strikeouts. Also, if lefty Ryan Noda is out of the lineup, I expect this number to take a hit, as Allen would face nine righties, who hit .300 against him with only 13 strikeouts in 17 innings.

Bailey Ober went six innings last weekend against this Tigers lineup and even though I don't love back to back matchups for pitchers, we're getting this line at 15.5 again and I think it should be at 16.5... Ober was efficient in that last start, needing 84 pitches to complete six innings while allowing just three hits. If not for a bad (and abbreviated) first start, he likely would have pitched into the 6th inning in his second start too, when he threw 68 pitches in five innings while allowing three hits. The Twins used four bullpen arms to back up Joe Ryan yesterday, and despite some trouble with runs, Ryan still was allowed to pitch into the 6th inning.

Sean Manaea had a couple fairly good starts to begin the season vs inferior opponents before being touched up by the Royals last time out. Now he faces a Dodgers lineup that will feature far better talent than the lineups of Cincinnati and Detroit where he found success. I'm not confident he can last all that long in this one, so I'm happy to play the under on the 5th/6th inning turn here. The one start this season where Manaea went over this line was his first start of the year, when he took a no-hitter into the 6th inning. As long as he doesn't have a nono going tonight, I think we see him done prior to that 6th inning.

Freddy Peralta has gone over 16.5 outs in each start so far and he was over this line in 18/33 starts last year. There were five more starts last year where he came up just one out short of going over 16.5 outs, so he has been around or over this number with regularity. Tomorrow the Brewers have DL Hall starting, the reliever turned starter, and he's struggled to get deep into games, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers try to save a bit of the bullpen here with their ace on the mound. The Cardinals offense hasn't been great and of note, they are bottom-8 in MLB for pitches per plate appearance. A few quick at-bats could be the difference here.