With the Blue Jays 10-1 Game 1 win Saturday against the Yankees, they are now the best over team in baseball, passing Seattle. Max Fried is on the mound, but his two starts in Toronto went way over the total won by the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are now 55-27 at home. Rather than go with Chris Bassitt or Max Scherzer, who they left off the roster for this series, they're going with Trey Yesavage in his fourth Major League appearance to start the game. He pitched well in his last start, going five innings, allowing no runs in a 5-1 win over Tampa Bay. But this is it for the Yankees. They have to take advantage of the kid. Over is the play.

The Yankee's go-to option all season in their rotation has been Max Fried, and no reason that should change in the ALDS at Toronto. Fried was sharp in his playoff debut on Tuesday, allowing just four hits in 6 1/3 shutout innings vs. the Bosox, continuing a trend we saw in a near-flawless September, when the Yanks won in all five of Fried's starts as he posted a 1.89 ERA for the month. This is also a crucial spot for the Yanks to get back in this series after dropping the opener, and John Schneider is rolling the dice for the Blue Jays with rookie starter Trey Yesavage, whose MLB experiences counts three starts with a 3.21 ERA in September. Play Yankees on Run Line

It would not surprise me if Aaron Boone has to go to the bullpen before Max Fried can finish a full six innings tonight. We saw the scrutiny that Boone faced when he pulled Fried in the Wild Card round as he was pitching well but he had reached 100+ pitches and Boone felt the bullpen lined up better than with a lefty. Similar could be said here as we get later into the game, with the Jays having Guerrero Jr, Kirk, and Springer as tough righties in the top of the order. This will also be the 5th time this year that Fried faces this Jays lineup, so getting plus odds for under six full innings in this spot is showing some value.

We understand why the Yankees are favored behind Max Fried, but the Blue Jays have been the AL's best team at home and are 24-16 against southpaws like Fried with a team OPS of .755 that was fourth-best in the majors during the RS. Fried's regular-season road ERA was about a run worse than at home. He had a mediocre 4.07 ERA in four starts vs. Toronto. The Yanks haven't seen hard-throwing Jays rookie Trey Yesavage (1-0, 3.21).