At home, I think this price has some value for the Guardians to win the game. They've won each of the last two starts that Tarik Skubal has made against them and it seems like they may have his number a little bit. That's not to say he pitched poorly against the Guardians in those two outings, going 12 innings and allowing just three runs, but he also allowed 11 hits and five walks, which is rather uncharacteristic. Skubal just completed what's likely his second consecutive Cy Young season but he may be feeling some fatigue at this point and the Guardians just have the momentum right now.

One the surface, it's the same as last season for the Tigers, the last AL wild card once again, but circumstances completely different after stumbling thru this December with a .291 win rate and surrendering the Central to the Guardians. The Tigers led the AL Central almost wire-to-wire, and now get the privilege of once again facing a rampant a rampant Cleveland, which took five of six from the Tigers within the last two weeks, as Tarik Skubal couldn't win in either of two starts for the Tigers. Momentum is on Cleveland's side and the Guardians know they can beat Skubal. Gavin Williams (1.88 ERA in four September starts), and two wins over the Tigers, looks well-priced in Game One. Play Guardians on Money Line

In Game one of this series, I like backing Gavin Williams to cover at least five innings. He's been great for most of the year, but in September he pitched to an ERA under two, and faced the Tigers twice, covering 11 innings, allowing just two runs on seven hits. Williams walked four batters and struck out an impressive 21 with 34 whiffs. My thought here is that even if Williams gives up a few runs, burning up the bullpen early in the series in a game with Tarik Skubal on the mound is not very smart, so even with multiple runs allowed I think Williams should remain in a bit longer. And of course if he pitches well then he should be fine.

This is the same pitching matchup from last Tuesday when Gavin Williams and the Guardians defeated Tarik Skubal and the Tigers. Skubal has a hard-hit rate of 33% (95th percentile) with an average exit velocity of 86.1 mph (97th percentile). In contrast, Williams has a hard-hit rate of 44.3% (19th percentile) and an average exit velocity of 90.4 mph (19th percentile). A significant factor often overlooked is Cleveland's bullpen situation. Despite having an excellent relief corps, they have been without closer Emmanuel Clase since July, and Nic Enright remains unavailable. After their division lead collapse, Detroit has everything to prove and enters the series with a 33-19 record in Game One. Skubal aims to end the team's three-game losing streak when he's on the mound.

Managers don't care nearly as much in the playoffs as they do in the RS about starting pitchers going the full five and qualifying for a win. But this is still an awfully low number on Gavin Williams, who has gone at least five in five straight and in the vast majority of his outings. Williams has also been better at home and during the day and has great 2025 splits vs. Detroit. Our model has him at 5.3 innings. Don't care about the .3 part.

This may well be a 1-0 game so we certainly will take +1.5 cheaper than Detroit money line even against Tarik Skubal. The Guardians' Gavin Williams has been about as good of late -- team has won his past five overall -- and Cleveland owned the Tigers in the season series to steal the Central. The teams met six times in the season's last 12 games as the Guardians completed an unprecedented charge to the division title.