Jalen Williams is having a terrific postseason but it’s largely going unnoticed. The third year pro has an extremely well rounded game and is excellent on both ends of the court, however this is a hefty combo line in what is likely going to be a paced down environment.

Anthony Edwards was criticized for not shooting enough in Game 4, when he finished with just 16 points, six assists and four rebounds. Edwards' season likely will end Wednesday, and I don't think the superstar will go out quietly. He's had two monster games in this series already. Look for Edwards to play at least 40 minutes and clear this prop total.

Check out this...461-460. That's the total scoreline of this series thru four games, a one-point edge for the Thunder, and suggesting that despite the fact OKC can sew up matters tonight, this series isn't as one-sided as some believe. True, three of the games were one-sided, including OKC's home wins in Games 1 & 2, but even those games weren't one-way traffic all the way, OKC using second-half spurts to pull clear. Minnesota, however, did seem to gain confidence in the games at Target Center, and though losing on Monday, came within 2 points, despite Julius Randle scoring only 5, while the bench contributed 64 points. Meanwhile, can SGA (40 points Game 4) & Jalen Williams (34 points) play any better? Play T-wolves.

It’s win or go home tonight for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Their star player Anthony Edwards will need to be assertive early on. That was not the case in game four as his first shot came within the final minute of the first quarter. Expect the aggressiveness we saw in game two where Edwards took ten first quarter shots, and that opened up his game for the final three quarters. Take Edwards over in game five tonight.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander not only scored 40 points in Game 4, but he also had 10 assists. He only played 28 minutes in Game 3 because of the lopsided score, but he still had six assists. He has produced at least eight assists in each of the other three games in this series. During the regular season, he had at least eight assists in three of four games against the Timberwolves. I don’t think the Timberwolves will go down without a fight, so Gilgeous-Alexander should play enough to have a favorable opportunity to reach this over.

Naz Reid averaged a career-high 6.0 rebounds per game during the regular season. In the first two rounds of the playoffs against the Lakers and Warriors, he averaged just 3.6 rebounds. However, this is a much better matchup for him against the Thunder. Not only did the Thunder allow the 11th-most rebounds per game during the regular season, but they have allowed the most rebounds per game in the playoffs. Reid has grabbed at least six rebounds in all four games against them and he even had eight rebounds in three of the games. Look for him to be productive on the boards again.

The only game of a previous seven landing beneath 218 between these sides this season came in Game One of this series when the T-wolves went ice-cold in the second half. In games 3 and 4, scorelines reached 244 and 254, respectively. The Wolves are having obvious problems slowing down SGA (40 points in game 4) and Jalen Williams (34 points on Monday), hardly keeping scorelines down. Meanwhile, Minnesota scored 126 on Monday even with Julius Randle contributing only 5, suggesting Chris Finch has some other options, including Illinois rookie Terrence Shannon, Jr along with Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Naz Reid, able to contribute 64 points off the bench in Game 4 and give the Wolves enough options to keep pace. Play Wolves-Thunder Over

We have the same% (66%) of the full game under 220.5 as we do for OKC to cover so the model projection is entirely based on MIN coming under their team total. I am taking the first half under because this could get out of hand and all bets are off as far as defensive intensity in the second half if OKC is up 30. Expect regression to the mean from long range for both teams after the hot 3pt shooting in Game 3. The series has gone way over the line in the last 3 resulting in this line being up to 221 in some spots, and a full 4 points higher than Game 2's closing consensus.

We'll take the plus money on a line below his average and his projection. We are getting buy low value because Naz Reid is averaging around 8 points per game his last 7 but he does come in with 3 straight double digit games. If anything, he could play an even larger role than usual because Julius Randle, as skilled as he is, is a turnover waiting to happen vs OKC’s defense. He averaged over 13.5 this season and while he averages less on the road, the over 9.5 rate was still a solid 29-17, 63%.

The Thunder smell blood and I suspect they build up another hefty lead again. Maybe they struggle some in second half to put MIN away but we keep riding them first half at home. They are +13.4 in postseason first half at home with a ridiculous 27.5 net rating, 15 assists/5TO, 49.2% from the field with a 59.7 TS%. Wild metrics. Wolves keep giving the ball away. OKC averaging 63/first half at home this playoffs where they are 7-1. MIN is a -.3 in first half on the road in playoffs. Thunder are smothering their stars.

Naz Reid is projected for 11 points. He averaged over 13.5 this season and while he averages less on the road, the over 9.5 rate was still a solid 29-17, 63% (over 77% at home). We never pass up +$$$ value on a line under both a player's projection and average when that player's minutes and usage are 100% predictable. We are getting buy low value because he is averaging around 8 pts per game his last 7 but he does come in with 3 straight double digit games. If anything, he could play an even larger role than usual because Julius Randle, as skilled as he is, is a turnover waiting to happen vs OKC's defense.

The model has OKC covering this in 66% of simulations. I would say there is a 50% chance of this being a normal, dominating OKC game where they win by their average of around 15 points and a 16% chance that the game is tight throughout but a late OKC run gets the cover. I'm glad MIN managed to keep Game 4 close and cover the spread because it is keeping this line tighter than it should be. But I have even more confidence in OKC because of their clutch shot making in situations where teams without championship mettle would have folded. The Thunder will cover because of the "death and taxes" inevitability of their style of play… turnovers and two point differential at home.

The Thunder opted to go with a smaller lineup and inserted Alex Caruso for Isaiah Hartenstein in the second half of Game 4’s victory. While OKC was able to hang on for the win, they were outscored by Minnesota in the second half. This is a large number for Caruso and I’m not convinced he sees another significant bump in playing time.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Thunder flirt with 130 again. The three would start falling again in Game 4, as we told you, and they shoot much better at home and know how to show it big when it matters most. Thunder are averaging 123.3/G at home and have scored 118 or more in 15 of their last 18 at home. Not enough of ANT and Julius Randle showing up on the defensive end and OKC is keeping the rebound percentage more than close enough and getting sufficient second chance points. Will push the pace here and also continue to turn the Wolves over like crazy, giving them quick, easy transition baskets.