The beauty of head coach Andy Reid is that he creates a game plan that may differ from the offense used in previous weeks. He intentionally held Noah Gray out so the Eagles wouldn't entirely game-plan for him. I expect several 12-personnel plays to utilize Noah Gray's size downfield. Philadelphia will focus on defending against the run and quick passes, similar to the approach the Chiefs offense took against Buffalo. Gray has recorded only six catches for 30 yards in his last four games. In the 2023 Super Bowl, he had two receptions for 22 yards. That will work.

Dallas Goedert has exceeded this total in all three of his postseason games. In the 2023 Super Bowl, he recorded 60 receiving yards when these two teams faced off. During the regular season, Kansas City allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, averaging 70 yards per game. Dalton Schultz achieved 63 receiving yards in the divisional round against Kansas City. The Chiefs managed to limit the Bills' tight ends to a low total, partly due to some drops. Andy Reid and his staff will focus on stopping the run, which will widen the middle of the field. The indoor environment improves the chances of success for this prop bet.

Travis Kelce had a very quiet performance in the AFC Championship game but will likely bounce back in the Super Bowl. Andy Reid's masterclass in orchestrating the offense will be vital, especially with two weeks to prepare. Travis Kelce has scored 20 touchdowns in 24 career postseason games, including two in his last three Super Bowls. After failing to find the end zone in last year's Super Bowl, I expect him to score at least one touchdown in what could be the final game of his brilliant career. The plus money line is of tremendous value.

The 49ers and Eagles had stronger rosters than the Chiefs during their last two Super Bowl victories. However, Andy Reid and his coaching staff possess strategic expertise that gives the Chiefs an advantage over the Eagles. Philadelphia faced only four teams ranked in the top 12 for defensive DVOA, and they have two rookie cornerbacks who will be tested in this matchup. This should be a highly competitive, one-score game. The Chiefs will have a quarterback and head coach entering the Hall of Fame five years after retirement. I picked Kansas City to win the Super Bowl in August and still believe in the Chiefs.

Travis Kelce has participated in 23 postseason games, including the Super Bowls. He has exceeded this number in 19 of those 23 contests, with an impressive streak of 14 consecutive games. That's hard to ignore. His postseason average is significantly higher in the playoffs, demonstrating that he performs best in January and February. Again.

In his last game against Washington, Dallas Goedert recorded five receptions for 61 yards, averaging 12.2 yards per catch. Goedert's 2024-25 season stats show he averages 11.8 yards per reception, with 42 receptions for 496 yards over 10 games. Goedert has demonstrated the ability to make explosive plays, with six receptions of 20+ yards and two of 40+ yards this season. He's exceeded this number in 7 of his last 10 home games, including four in a row. With Jalen Hurts hobbled, he's less likely to run and more likely to find Goedert as a safety valve. Sam LaPorta had six receptions for 51 yards against this Commanders' defense last week. There are no significant winds in the forecast. My model projects 52.3.

Travis Kelce has participated in 22 postseason games, including the Super Bowls. He has exceeded this number in 18 of those 22 contests, with an impressive streak of 13 consecutive games. That's hard to ignore. His postseason average is 86.5, while his regular season average is 74.3, demonstrating that he performs best in January and February.

The Vikings' offense ranks 6th in the league, averaging 237.8 passing yards per game. T.J. Hockenson has received at least five targets in each of the last seven games and has averaged 49.5 receiving yards since returning from injury. With the Rams likely to prioritize containing star receiver Justin Jefferson, Hockenson may encounter more opportunities as a security option for quarterback Sam Darnold. The Rams' defense has been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the fourth most receiving yards at 64.7 per game this season.

The Commanders played the easiest schedule (30th) of all the playoff teams. They went 2-3 in outdoor road games. Washington is ranked 30th in run defense, while the Buccaneers are ranked 4th in run offense. The Bucs rank 4th in red zone offense, while Washington is 22nd in red zone defense. Tampa Bay owns the No. 1 third-down offense, while Washington is ranked 15th in third-down defense. The Commanders' defense was on the field for 75 plays and 37.03 possession time against Dallas. Washington has a negative sack differential (-0.4), and these teams struggle in the Wild Card round. The Buccaneers have established a playoff pedigree, making the divisional round last year, while the Commanders are brand new in post-season play.

He has surpassed this number in eight of his last ten games. The Rams have allowed the most receptions (254) and receiving yards (3,127) to slot receivers this season. They may struggle in this matchup with a very young defense and the likelihood of resting starters on both sides of the ball. Jaxon Smith-Njigba recorded 180 receiving yards in the first game at Seattle. Playing in a mostly indoor stadium with a controlled environment suggests that he could exceed 67.5 receiving yards against a Rams defense that may not be fully committed.

This will be the Vikings’ 11th straight game after having their BYE in week six, which should offset Green Bay’s one less day of rest. These teams have split their season series in the last three seasons. Minnesota defeated Green Bay 31-29 as 2.5-point road dogs against a “nicked” Packers squad. Green Bay outgained Minnesota 465-379. The Packers have better net yards per play on both sides of the ball and a better sack differential (+1.8 vs. -0.2). I like the road team in this spot.

The LA Rams are overrated, ranking 21st in net yards per play, while the Jets are ranked 7th. The Rams have a net yards per play of -0.53 in road games, while the Jets are +0.76 at home. The Jets' secondary is healthy, with D.J. Reed a full participant at practice. The Jets are significantly better in key defensive metrics for passing and running. The Rams are a dome team playing outdoors in freezing weather. Last season, Matthew Stafford had a record of 1-1 straight up and 0-2 against the spread in two games played when the temperatures were below 40 degrees. His win was a 1-point victory in East Rutherford against the Giants as 4-point chalk. Aaron Rodgers has consistently excelled in freezing conditions.

T.J. Hockenson has surpassed 38.5 receiving yards in 7 of his last ten home games, averaging 59.2 yards during that stretch. Since returning from injury, he has averaged six targets per game this season. The Bears have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. My model projects his receiving yards at 53.

The Detroit Lions are a predominant single-high safety defense that opens up huge running lanes against opposing quarterbacks. Detroit has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards against quarterbacks this season. Josh Allen rushed for 54 yards at Houston, 50 yards at Indianapolis, and 82 yards at the LA Rams. I expect a big day for Josh Allen at another indoor venue. My model has this number at 47.

The Denver Broncos are ranked second in net yards per play defense, eighth in yards per game defense, fourth in net yards per pass defense, second in red zone defense, sixth in run defense, and eighth in opponent passer rating. The Colts are ranked 23rd in net yards per play defense, 29th in yards per game defense, 27th in net yards per pass defense, 17th in red zone defense, 30th in run defense, and 23rd in opponent passer rating. Sean Payton wasn’t happy with the Broncos’ defensive effort, allowing 32 points at home before their BYE week. Another data point I like is a Dome Team playing outdoors in December. My betting model has the Broncos favored by 9 points.