The Ravens committed five turnovers last Thursday...

This matchup exemplifies a classic betting trap. It features a winning team facing an inferior opponent, and the spread seems too easy. The Titans lost both meetings against the Jags last season, both by one possession, with a much weaker QB under center. Tennessee has not won a home game and will be motivated to secure a victory for its dedicated fans. This will be the Jaguars' fourth road game in five weeks and their first outdoor road game in over two months. That's an advantage for Tennessee that isn't reflected in the betting line. My model has Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite. Grab the 6.5 and sprinkle some money line action.

The San Francisco 49ers will be playing at 10:00 AM (body clock) on a short week. The weather forecast looks wet and cold, which the home team is more accustomed to playing in. Cleveland's defense ranks among the league's most fearsome pass-rushing units. Myles Garrett leads the NFL in quarterback pressures, and the Browns' secondary features elite cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr. The Browns rank 3rd in sack percentage (10.31%) and 3rd overall in defensive pressure, creating problems for any quarterback. This system from weeks 10 to 15 has achieved a success rate of just under 58% across a large sample, focusing on underdogs of 6.5 points or more with an over/under of 42 points or fewer.

This is not a great spot for the Atlanta Falcons after playing two straight overtime losses. Their defense was on the field for a total of 149 plays, and they are now basically playing their third consecutive road game. Atlanta had an early bye in Week 5 and is now playing its seventh consecutive week. New Orleans ranks 13th in consistency, while the Falcons rank 32nd and will be missing key starters on both sides of the ball. The Saints have two weeks to practice and install game plans. Kellen Moore's squad will be well-prepared following the bye week, during which teams are 14-8 this season.

I always like backing the Browns as home underdogs, especially in division games with the better stop unit. Cleveland has a point differential of -15.3 in unfamiliar territory, while at home, they post a +9.0 point differential in the Dawg Pound. The Ravens crushed the Browns 41-17 as 12.5-point home chalk despite getting outgained 322-242 back in Week 2 with Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland achieved more first downs and ran 19 more plays than Baltimore. A minus two turnover differential was costly. Myles Garrett called out his team after last week's loss, and the Browns will be highly motivated in this division matchup. With 15-25 mph winds and a 50% chance of light rain, we have the makings of a closer-than-expected low-scoring contest.

Justin Herbert has cleared this number in 7 of 9 games, including five times when playing indoors. He's averaging 43.2 rushing yards per game indoors this season. With a banged-up offensive line, Herbert is expected to use his legs quite often to avoid the Steelers' pass rush. The only quarterbacks that Pittsburgh has faced who is considered elusive is Justin Fields and Drake Maye, who had 48 and 45 rushing yards respectively. The Steelers haven't had to contend with a running quarterback until now, but that is likely to change in this game. The crowd should be pro-Steelers, which will fuel Herbert's performance.

John Harbaugh and Jim Harbaugh are close brothers who talk on the phone. They discuss whether they might have an Apple Pie or Sweet Potato Pie for dessert on Thanksgiving, and ask how the kids are doing. But they really talk about football, and being the great coaches they are, each brother looks for every edge possible. The Chargers played the Vikings two weeks ago. You don't think John will ask his brother, Hey, what did you see here, etc? They share insights. We know Lamar Jackson is outstanding against the NFC, going 24-3. Minnesota hasn't played Baltimore since 2021, and it didn't go well. The Ravens are well-rested and still in desperation mode.

Josh Allen averages 44.0 rushing yards per game against the Kansas City Chiefs in regular-season matchups. Last week, he only recorded seven rushing yards against Carolina. Historically, Allen performs well on this prop after a subpar rushing game. I project him to have 40.1 rushing yards, which leaves a good amount of flexibility from this line.

The public perception is that the Jaguars are the much better team, thus laying 3.5 points on the road. The Raiders are ranked 21st in sack differential (-4) while the Jags are ranked 28th (-10). You can’t depend on past offensive statistics because injuries have hindered Las Vegas. The good news is that stud TE Brock Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers are back in action. Las Vegas is ranked three spots higher in net yards per play, with a roster depleted in previous weeks. I like the Raiders on the money line, so getting 3.5 points seems like the right side. Per R.J. White, teams catching 3 or more at home after a bye are 14-5-1 ATS since 2020.

Cade Otton has significantly increased his target share, recording 5, 6, and 9 targets in his last three games due to the absence of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay's pass-heavy red-zone approach (29 passes vs. 19 carries inside the 20-yard line) makes him a primary target. New Orleans has allowed eight passing TDs to non-WR positions, creating an ideal mismatch for a receiving tight end. Otton has not scored a touchdown in his last 12 games, but he did find the end zone against the Saints in New Orleans for two consecutive seasons. Otton has 10 career touchdowns, with half scoring in a dome.

The Buccaneers are coming off a brutal Monday Night Football drubbing to the Detroit Lions, losing WR Mike Evans and DE Haason Reddick to injury. This short week poses significant challenges for Tampa Bay, as they have only six days to prepare, and their schedule has been particularly demanding with three games played on short rest this season. New Orleans has been competitive at home with all three losses by 7 points or less. Rookie head coach Kellen Moore has his team playing hard. Give me the home divisional dog in this spot.

Justin Herbert averages 25.8 rushing yards per game. Most importantly, Herbert has gone over 15.5 rushing yards in four of six games this season (67% hit rate). Herbert has exceeded his rushing yards in 7 of his last nine home games, and has sailed over 15.5 rushing yards in 13 of his last 21 indoor games since 2023. He had just one rush for three yards last week. The Colts' defense has allowed quarterbacks to run, with Bo Nix gaining 20 yards and Jacoby Brissett rushing for 19 yards on only three carries. Play all the way up to 20.5 rush yards.

The Colts will play their second consecutive road game in Los Angeles (Week 4 loss) after two straight home tilts. They are currently ranked fourth in net yards per play while facing the 29th hardest schedule. In contrast, the Chargers are ranked 10th in NYPP while playing against the 17th hardest slate. Daniel Jones will have difficulty throwing against the Chargers, who rank second in opponent passer rating (73.7). The Chargers' brilliant coaching staff knows Indianapolis can't run wild if they want to win this game. The Colts have scored 71 points in their last two games and now hit the road. This is a strong system that supports the home team.

The Eagles are in the middle of a division sandwich, having played the Giants last Thursday and playing them again in Week 8. Every team will be fired up to play the defending Super Bowl champions. Minnesota has a strong home-field advantage, ranking in the top five. Kevin O'Connell has won two of three after a bye week, with the only loss by two points against Detroit last year in Minnesota. Giving offensive-minded head coaches two weeks to prepare is typically an advantage not accounted for in the line. I made this line Philadelphia -1 with a healthy J.J. McCarthy under center for Minnesota. He's good to go. Play the Vikings plus the points.

Atlanta allowed Baker Mayfield to rush for 39 yards on five carries in Week 1. In fact, the Falcons' defense, while statistically impressive overall, has critical vulnerabilities that favor mobile quarterbacks like Josh Allen. Atlanta ranks 25th in QB rush EPA and 28th in scramble defense EPA. Allen enters Week 6 averaging 42.4 rushing yards per game. The Falcons faced Josh Allen and the Bills in Buffalo back in 2021. Allen had 15 carries for 81 yards. He will be doing everything possible to win this game after a loss. I like this prop, especially indoors, where Allen has rushed over 50 yards in four straight games dating back to last year.