Tennessee’s offensive line has allowed only six sacks, tying for the sixth-fewest. Houston’s line has already allowed 12 sacks in just four games, one of the highest totals in the NFL. Nico Collins, who lines up outside nearly 85% of the time, is a classic boundary receiver and deep threat. He and C.J. Stroud have developed impressive timing, especially in domes. But when Collins plays outside, his yards per game drop by almost 20, and he’s only scored six touchdowns outdoors compared to 21 inside. Home divisional dogs getting 7.5 points with a total under 40 is too good to pass up. Also, all the weather models are calling for rain (80-90% chance) and some wind, so the grass field is likely to play slow.

In 2025, Kansas City faced an unusual schedule—they never had to play two straight road games in back-to-back weeks unless there was a bye in between. The last time the Chiefs went on the road for consecutive games without extra rest was back in November 2024. Las Vegas averages 13.0 offensive yards per point, which ranks fourth in the NFL. The Raiders' defensive front has quietly put up strong numbers with a 50% pass-rush win rate and a 36% run-stop win rate. Both teams have a positive sack differential, and with Jackson Powers-Johnson likely to miss time, the Raiders are counting on Caleb Rogers, who’s a solid replacement at right guard. After running my model last night and on Tuesday, there’s 1.2 points of value.

Houston’s offensive line is struggling. C.J. Stroud has faced more pressure than any other quarterback this season, which helps explain why the Texans rank 30th in yards per play and 20th in EPA per play. With top receiver Nico Collins sidelined by a hamstring injury, Houston just can’t create separation on the outside to ease that pressure. The Texans’ defense is giving up explosive pass plays on a league-worst 23.3% of attempts. Meanwhile, Indianapolis enters this matchup with solid trench play and an efficient run game (4.4 yards per carry), while ranking third in red-zone scoring. Yes, Indy hasn’t won since last November (nine straight losses), and the Texans have won the last five matchups, though they’ve only covered the spread twice in those games.

Seattle’s defensive scheme, especially their split-safety and Cover 6 looks, leaves open some key areas in the middle of the field. These coverages create soft spots between the deep-half safety near the sideline and the zone defenders underneath—exactly where Arizona likes to use Trey McBride. In Week 1, McBride lined up in the slot more than any other Cardinals pass-catcher, and according to Next Gen Stats, seven of his nine catches came from those inside positions. Over his last four games against Seattle, McBride has made the most of these coverages, posting lines of 12 catches for 133 yards, 7 for 70, 7 for 52, and 9 for 127—averaging 95.5 yards per game. A controlled environment makes this line closer to 69 yards.

Baltimore has cluster injuries at WR, with Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane highly questionable. The defense is also nicked up, and I can see this spread dipping a bit. Lamar Jackson and company have always been tough to defend on turf indoors, but now he’s outdoors on grass. The Saints have greater defensive speed than the Colts, and they showed their offense can score in bunches when Tyler Shough led them back to force overtime. Even if the Ravens control possession, the Saints can make explosive plays and keep the margin within the number. Baltimore has a huge matchup at Dallas coming up, so this could be a “sleepy” spot. My model has the Ravens favored by exactly 7 points.

The Vikings will play their first Week 1 home game in three years, and U.S. Bank Stadium is a tough place for any team to start the season. Minnesota has won seven of its last ten Week 1 home games. Right now, the Vikings have an advantage on both the offensive and defensive lines. Backing defensive coordinator Brian Flores with extra time to scheme creative blitz packages seems right. Minnesota is favored by 1.5 points at most sportsbooks. Since 2000, home favorites in Week 1 who face teams that finished above .500 or made the playoffs the year before are 50-30-5 ATS. Since the Vikings are underdogs at MGM, I have to mention that Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 24-6 ATS since 2009.

The Philadelphia Eagles have a ginormous advantage over Washington in the trenches, and it’s not particularly close. Washington’s offensive line is weakened by injuries and lacks the chemistry needed to contain the Eagles' front seven. Philadelphia’s defensive line, led by Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, is set to exploit this weakness. In their last four matchups, the Eagles have run wild, piling up 875 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns at nearly six yards per carry. Last season, Washington managed to convert just 15.2% of their late downs. And that was with a better offensive line than they have now. Eagles should win comfortably, so I will swallow 4.5 points. My model has the Eagles winning by 8 points (24-16).

Washington lost its starting left tackle and had to bring in new linemen who have barely practiced together. This makeshift group will face Baltimore’s second- and third-string players, who have plenty of talent. With Jayden Daniels sitting out and Marcus Mariota injured, Washington must rely on inexperienced quarterbacks Athan Kaliakmanis and Sam Hartman for the entire game. Baltimore’s backup quarterbacks are reliable—Joe Fagnano has completed 77.1 percent of his passes—and the defense, led by Jesse Minter, is operating complex blitz packages and showing little concern about revealing their schemes on film. Baltimore appears eager to finish the preseason undefeated.

Taylen Green is an elite rusher with 2,405 rushing yards in 53 college games, making him dangerous late in preseason games when backup offensive lines are on the field. Cleveland’s main quarterback reps go to Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel, but Green’s late snaps add explosive potential. Miller Moss, by contrast, is a pocket passer behind Chicago’s backups and sits behind Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum. Most preseason games are decided in the fourth quarter. Cleveland’s quarterback depth and the drive of new coach Todd Monken, who served under John Harbaugh—a coach known for valuing preseason wins, give the Browns a clear advantage. Monken served as the Browns' offensive coordinator in 2019 and now returns for his second stint.

I have always liked backing rookie head coaches in their first preseason home game. While this game is not in Arizona, I prefer the Cardinals' quarterback rotation to what the Panthers will put out. Mike LaFleur’s debut as Arizona’s head coach introduces strong motivation to establish performance standards. Furthermore, Carson Beck offers starting-caliber collegiate accuracy (79% adjusted completion rate) across two to three quarters of action, giving Arizona a decisive advantage over Carolina's heavy reliance on undrafted rookie Haynes King. Carolina has already suffered several injuries, and its game plan is expected to be very vanilla. Underdogs in Canton are 8-2-1 against the spread since 2013 and have won five straight outright.

The Seahawks may have the league’s top defense, but they’ve had a tough time stopping tight ends all year, ranking near the bottom in that category. Hunter Henry is Drake Maye’s primary safety valve near the goal line. He commands a 35.5% red zone target share, which ranks 2nd among all NFL tight ends. With Seattle’s star cornerbacks taking away the outside options, Maye will have to look for Henry over the middle. At +230 odds, the betting market says Henry has about a 31% chance to score, but I think it’s closer to 40% given how Seattle has struggled in this area. That means the sportsbook’s edge (hold percentage) is smaller than usual here, making this bet even more appealing.

This is a very popular prop, but for good reason. While the Seahawks' defense is historically great, every unit has an Achilles' heel. For Seattle, it is defending the tight end position. This creates a massive schematic mismatch that favors Patriots veteran Hunter Henry. Despite ranking No. 1 in Pass Defense DVOA, the Seahawks rank a dismal 29th in the league against covering tight ends. This disparity is a function of their defensive scheme, which prioritizes shutting down perimeter wide receivers with elite cornerbacks (Woolen/Witherspoon) and stopping the run with aggressive linebackers. The line of 36.5 yards is exceptionally low for a primary target in a pass-heavy game script. Two receptions down the seam could clear this total alone.

One of the most striking findings my research has uncovered for Super Bowl LX is how the Patriots’ top-tier run defense is likely to boost Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s target volume. When Seattle’s run game stalls, they pivot to the passing attack, and Smith-Njigba soaks up targets, commanding an eye-popping 36.2% target share and a 44.4% first-read target share. The Patriots employ a defensive scheme that relies heavily on man coverage to disrupt timing. Smith-Njigba excels in this environment. He ranks second in the Next Gen Stats era with 3.6 yards per route run (YPRR), trailing only Tyreek Hill's historic 2023 season. His ability to separate instantly from slot corners makes him the "panic button" for quarterback Sam Darnold.

While Maye averaged a respectable rushing output during the 17-game season (450 yards on 103 attempts), his usage has spiked in the postseason. In the AFC Divisional Round against the Texans, Maye broke a 37-yard run , and in the AFC Championship against the Broncos, a 28-yard scramble set up the go-ahead score. The Seahawks boast the No. 1 Pass Defense DVOA. Their coverage unit, led by cornerbacks Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, is elite at blanketing receivers. When coverage is tight, play extension becomes the quarterback's only option. Coverage sacks turn into scrambles for athletic quarterbacks. Maye, at 6'4" and 225 lbs, is difficult to bring down in the open field.

With WR Stefon Diggs expected to be blanketed by CB Patrick Surtain, Drake Maye’s most reliable option could be TE Hunter Henry. The Broncos’ pass defense is tough overall, but they’ve had trouble containing tight ends, especially in the middle of the field, allowing the ninth-most yards per game (59.7) to the position. It’s common for young quarterbacks to lean on their tight ends in loud, hostile stadiums, and Henry fits that “safety valve” role perfectly. He’s been a steady presence for New England, ranking seventh among tight ends in target share (18.05%) and surpassing this yardage mark in 11 of 18 games this season. Expect Maye to look Henry’s way early and often.