While Maye averaged a respectable rushing output during the 17-game season (450 yards on 103 attempts), his usage has spiked in the postseason. In the AFC Divisional Round against the Texans, Maye broke a 37-yard run , and in the AFC Championship against the Broncos, a 28-yard scramble set up the go-ahead score. The Seahawks boast the No. 1 Pass Defense DVOA. Their coverage unit, led by cornerbacks Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, is elite at blanketing receivers. When coverage is tight, play extension becomes the quarterback's only option. Coverage sacks turn into scrambles for athletic quarterbacks. Maye, at 6'4" and 225 lbs, is difficult to bring down in the open field.
One of the most striking findings my research has uncovered for Super Bowl LX is how the Patriots’ top-tier run defense is likely to boost Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s target volume. When Seattle’s run game stalls, they pivot to the passing attack, and Smith-Njigba soaks up targets, commanding an eye-popping 36.2% target share and a 44.4% first-read target share. The Patriots employ a defensive scheme that relies heavily on man coverage to disrupt timing. Smith-Njigba excels in this environment. He ranks second in the Next Gen Stats era with 3.6 yards per route run (YPRR), trailing only Tyreek Hill's historic 2023 season. His ability to separate instantly from slot corners makes him the "panic button" for quarterback Sam Darnold.
This is a very popular prop, but for good reason. While the Seahawks' defense is historically great, every unit has an Achilles' heel. For Seattle, it is defending the tight end position. This creates a massive schematic mismatch that favors Patriots veteran Hunter Henry. Despite ranking No. 1 in Pass Defense DVOA, the Seahawks rank a dismal 29th in the league against covering tight ends. This disparity is a function of their defensive scheme, which prioritizes shutting down perimeter wide receivers with elite cornerbacks (Woolen/Witherspoon) and stopping the run with aggressive linebackers. The line of 36.5 yards is exceptionally low for a primary target in a pass-heavy game script. Two receptions down the seam could clear this total alone.
The Seahawks may have the league’s top defense, but they’ve had a tough time stopping tight ends all year, ranking near the bottom in that category. Hunter Henry is Drake Maye’s primary safety valve near the goal line. He commands a 35.5% red zone target share, which ranks 2nd among all NFL tight ends. With Seattle’s star cornerbacks taking away the outside options, Maye will have to look for Henry over the middle. At +230 odds, the betting market says Henry has about a 31% chance to score, but I think it’s closer to 40% given how Seattle has struggled in this area. That means the sportsbook’s edge (hold percentage) is smaller than usual here, making this bet even more appealing.
With WR Stefon Diggs expected to be blanketed by CB Patrick Surtain, Drake Maye’s most reliable option could be TE Hunter Henry. The Broncos’ pass defense is tough overall, but they’ve had trouble containing tight ends, especially in the middle of the field, allowing the ninth-most yards per game (59.7) to the position. It’s common for young quarterbacks to lean on their tight ends in loud, hostile stadiums, and Henry fits that “safety valve” role perfectly. He’s been a steady presence for New England, ranking seventh among tight ends in target share (18.05%) and surpassing this yardage mark in 11 of 18 games this season. Expect Maye to look Henry’s way early and often.
The Texans are built for speed and thrive in the controlled environment of NRG Stadium. However, traveling to Pittsburgh presents a stark contrast, with freezing temperatures and possible precipitation in the forecast. These harsh conditions slow down Houston’s quick receivers and diminish their athletic advantage. Since Week 10, the Pittsburgh Steelers possess elite offensive efficiency (12.4 Yards per point—best among AFC teams except Jacksonville) combined with solid defensive performance (16.0 OPP YPP—SUPERIOR to Houston's 15.5). The Steelers' AFC North championship victory over Baltimore creates a significant matchup with Houston at the #5 seed, where the Steelers' elite offense (12.4 YPP) and better defense (16.0 vs. 15.5 OPP YPP) create a +3.04 yard-per-point combined efficiency edge. My model makes Houston a -1.7 favorite. Grab the hook.
New England benefited from one of the NFL’s softest schedules and posted a 3–2 record against playoff teams. Since Week 12, the Patriots’ run defense has dropped to 30th in EPA/play. Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman are masters at crafting a productive run game, even with injuries up front. Meanwhile, the Chargers lead the league in opponent passer rating; New England sits at 21st. Since 2002, first-time playoff QBs (Maye) are just 25-40 ATS (35.4% outright wins), a notable system for this spot. Justin Herbert’s postseason experience and elite processing give the Chargers a clear advantage. The Ravens recently played the Patriots—look for Jim Harbaugh to pick up valuable tips from his brother. Fade the Drake and grab the crucial hook at a discount.
The Patriots enter this matchup riding a 10-game win streak with an 8-2 ATS record, coming off a bye week. In their first meeting, Buffalo fell 23-20 on a last-second field goal despite committing three turnovers, sacking Drake Maye four times, and committing 11 penalties. Buffalo has this game circled. New England handed the Bills their first loss of the season. New England’s schedule has been the NFL’s easiest, facing a laughable list of quarterbacks with a -3.6 strength of schedule rating (Miami’s -1.8 is next-worst). Teams coming off 10-game win streaks followed by a bye week often struggle. Rest equals rust. Josh Allen thrives in revenge scenarios, posting a perfect 4-0 record in regular season rematches, including 2-0 against the Patriots since 2021.
Aaron Rodgers should be the starter heading into a pivotal matchup against the Ravens, but he's now gone four straight games with one or zero touchdowns and three consecutive games with under 165 passing yards. I typically play the underdog when these two teams meet. This matchup feels different. Pittsburgh's defense was on the field for 74 plays, totaling 41 minutes and 59 seconds. Baltimore owns a +0.2 net yards per play while the Steelers are -0.2. Lamar Jackson and several key defensive players missed multiple games due to injuries. After his three-turnover performance, Jackson and company will deliver a strong showing. John Harbaugh has 10 days to prepare after the team committed five turnovers last Thursday.
This matchup exemplifies a classic betting trap. It features a winning team facing an inferior opponent, and the spread seems too easy. The Titans lost both meetings against the Jags last season, both by one possession, with a much weaker QB under center. Tennessee has not won a home game and will be motivated to secure a victory for its dedicated fans. This will be the Jaguars' fourth road game in five weeks and their first outdoor road game in over two months. That's an advantage for Tennessee that isn't reflected in the betting line. My model has Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite. Grab the 6.5 and sprinkle some money line action.
The San Francisco 49ers will be playing at 10:00 AM (body clock) on a short week. The weather forecast looks wet and cold, which the home team is more accustomed to playing in. Cleveland's defense ranks among the league's most fearsome pass-rushing units. Myles Garrett leads the NFL in quarterback pressures, and the Browns' secondary features elite cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr. The Browns rank 3rd in sack percentage (10.31%) and 3rd overall in defensive pressure, creating problems for any quarterback. This system from weeks 10 to 15 has achieved a success rate of just under 58% across a large sample, focusing on underdogs of 6.5 points or more with an over/under of 42 points or fewer.
This is not a great spot for the Atlanta Falcons after playing two straight overtime losses. Their defense was on the field for a total of 149 plays, and they are now basically playing their third consecutive road game. Atlanta had an early bye in Week 5 and is now playing its seventh consecutive week. New Orleans ranks 13th in consistency, while the Falcons rank 32nd and will be missing key starters on both sides of the ball. The Saints have two weeks to practice and install game plans. Kellen Moore's squad will be well-prepared following the bye week, during which teams are 14-8 this season.
I always like backing the Browns as home underdogs, especially in division games with the better stop unit. Cleveland has a point differential of -15.3 in unfamiliar territory, while at home, they post a +9.0 point differential in the Dawg Pound. The Ravens crushed the Browns 41-17 as 12.5-point home chalk despite getting outgained 322-242 back in Week 2 with Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland achieved more first downs and ran 19 more plays than Baltimore. A minus two turnover differential was costly. Myles Garrett called out his team after last week's loss, and the Browns will be highly motivated in this division matchup. With 15-25 mph winds and a 50% chance of light rain, we have the makings of a closer-than-expected low-scoring contest.
Justin Herbert has cleared this number in 7 of 9 games, including five times when playing indoors. He's averaging 43.2 rushing yards per game indoors this season. With a banged-up offensive line, Herbert is expected to use his legs quite often to avoid the Steelers' pass rush. The only quarterbacks that Pittsburgh has faced who is considered elusive is Justin Fields and Drake Maye, who had 48 and 45 rushing yards respectively. The Steelers haven't had to contend with a running quarterback until now, but that is likely to change in this game. The crowd should be pro-Steelers, which will fuel Herbert's performance.
John Harbaugh and Jim Harbaugh are close brothers who talk on the phone. They discuss whether they might have an Apple Pie or Sweet Potato Pie for dessert on Thanksgiving, and ask how the kids are doing. But they really talk about football, and being the great coaches they are, each brother looks for every edge possible. The Chargers played the Vikings two weeks ago. You don't think John will ask his brother, Hey, what did you see here, etc? They share insights. We know Lamar Jackson is outstanding against the NFC, going 24-3. Minnesota hasn't played Baltimore since 2021, and it didn't go well. The Ravens are well-rested and still in desperation mode.