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Sun, Jan 2611:30 pm UTCGEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
33 F
Track OnCBS Sports
Buffalo
Bills
BUF
Last 5 ATS
W/L15-5
ATS12-8
O/U12-8-0
FINAL SCORE
29
-
32
Kansas City
Chiefs
KC
Last 5 ATS
W/L17-3
ATS8-11
O/U9-11-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
15-5
Win /Loss
17-3
12-8
Spread
8-11
12-8-0
Over / Under
9-11-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
BUF @ KC
Subscribers Only

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

MONEYLINE
BUF @ KC
Subscribers Only

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

OVER / UNDER
BUF @ KC
Subscribers Only

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

71%
PUBLIC
29%
MONEY
37%
PUBLIC
63%
MONEY
Over76%
PUBLIC
Under24%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Total Away PointsBuffalo Over 24.5 Total Pts -105
WIN
Unit1.0
+354
3-0 in Last 3 NFL Team Props Picks
Jimmie's Analysis:

Kansas City is a tough place to play, and the Chiefs' defense has been solid all season. That said, Bills QB Josh Allen has been a man on a mission this season. I see the Bills finishing with 27+ points in the AFC Championship Game.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 11:00 pm UTC on Sugar House
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsKhalil Shakir Over 58.5 Total Receiving Yards -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+442.5
35-28 in Last 63 NFL Player Props Picks
Jimmie's Analysis:

There is a lot to like about this spot for Shakir. The former Boise State standout led the Bills in receiving yards this year, and was the only player on the team to see 100 targets during the regular season. Shakir has gone over this number in both of Buffalo's playoff games thus far, and he notched 8 catches for 70 yards when these teams played in November.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 10:57 pm UTC on FanDuel
Money LineBuffalo +105
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1016.5
33-21-4 in Last 58 NFL Picks
Jimmie's Analysis:

With a point spread this small, you are essentially just picking a winner. In this case there is more value in taking Buffalo, who I think will win outright, at +105 on the moneyline, than taking them at +1.5 (-111). The Chiefs are the two-time defending champs, but the Bills are the better offensive team in this matchup, and they are strong enough defensively to limit Kansas City's offensive success enough to win the game.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 10:48 pm UTC on BetMGM
Over / UnderUnder 50 -118
LOSS
Unit1.0
+275
5-2 in Last 7 NFL Picks
+99
10-8 in Last 18 NFL O/U Picks
+237
8-5 in Last 13 KC O/U Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Wondered all week if the allure of these two QBs would get us here. And it has. So I'm jumping it even with the juice because not sure how long it's sticking around. KC defense is legit and holding teams to 20 or less at home. Spags has the answers for Josh Allen in playoffs. Patrick Mahomes is 14-5 under at home since start of last season (reg and playoffs), going under by 5.66/G (Avg close 46). He has played 5 straight home unders in playoffs and is under in 6 of his last 9 postseason games. BUF may stick with run-heavy, conservative script.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 10:04 pm UTC on BetMGM
Over / UnderUnder 50 -118
LOSS
Unit1.0
+252
6-3 in Last 9 NFL Picks
+140
8-6 in Last 14 NFL O/U Picks
+172
4-2-1 in Last 7 KC O/U Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

This is a different KC than a few years ago when the presence of Tyreek Hill along with Patrick Mahomes made the Chiefs instant big-play threats. Nowadays, it's far more methodical, with Mahomes sometimes shunning his wideouts almost entirely while working instead they Travis Kelce and his own mobility to keep the KC offense on the field...but keeping the clock moving at the same time. The Chiefs continue to trend under (three straight, six of seven, and 11-5 their last 16) as the combination of Mahomes keeping plays and drives alive, while slowly draining the clock, and Steve Spagnuolo's underrated defense creates a powerful parlay for the under wagers. Play Bills-Chiefs Under

Pick Made: Jan 26, 9:33 pm UTC on BetMGM
Money LineKansas City -122
WIN
Unit1.0
+585
7-1 in Last 8 NFL ML Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

What Josh Allen's Bills have yet to do is beat these Chiefs in the playoffs, losing three times since 2020. Buffalo also hasn't won a road playoff game in more than 30 years, since the '93 AFC title game vs. Joe Montana's Kansas City. There was a long postseason drought involved, and Josh Allen is responsible for only three of those losses (none since the 2021 playoffs). Still, we have seen too many escape acts by Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs to underestimate KC, which doesn't need a downfield passing game if Mahomes and Travis Kelce can continue to click and keep drives alive, while Steve Spagnuolo's underrated defense is a main reason the Chiefs won the Supe last February. Play Chiefs on ML

Pick Made: Jan 26, 9:31 pm UTC on Sugar House
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsMarquise Brown Over 41.5 Total Receiving Yards -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+850.5
18-8 in Last 26 NFL Player Props Picks
Todd's Analysis:

Travis Kelce will no doubt get his opportunities as he does every playoff game but there are other avenues for the Chiefs to attack as well. I'm buying low on Hollywood Brown this week after a zero catch performance on two targets. In his final 2 regular season games against the Steelers and Texans he came away with nine grabs on 15 targets for 91 yards (46,45). This Bills' secondary is banged up and down its center fielder in Taylor Rapp meaning I expect a few deep shots with Hollywood on the receiving end tonight.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 8:32 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadBuffalo +2 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1907
60-37-3 in Last 100 NFL ATS Picks
+1072
26-14-3 in Last 43 BUF ATS Picks
Mike's Analysis:

The Chiefs' favoritism seems based on the belief that they will draw on their experience in recent playoff excellence to beat Buffalo. Most of the evidence suggest that this K.C. team is inferior to the past two. Eleven of 15 wins this season were secured by one score, and a few appeared a product of luck. It outgained opponents by a paltry eight yards per game. The Bills were much better at running the ball, which is paramount in freezing weather. They stand 12-7 ATS, with the highlight a nine-point win over the Chiefs. As magical as QB Patrick Mahomes can be, Josh Allen is a worthy peer. The Bills have the better team and are receiving points. 'Nuff said.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 6:22 pm UTC on Sugar House
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsTravis Kelce Over 66.5 Total Receiving Yards -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+316
3-0 in Last 3 NFL Player Props Picks
Josh's Analysis:

This is a high number, especially for a TE, but we expect the receiving end of the iconic Kansas City duo to deliver in the AFC title game one more time. Kelce went for 7 rec/117 yards and a TD last week against Houston and against Buffalo last year he went 5/75 with 2 TDs.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 6:11 pm UTC on FanDuel
Money LineKansas City -124
WIN
Unit2.0
+241
8-5 in Last 13 NFL Picks
+212
10-6 in Last 16 NFL ML Picks
+500
4-1 in Last 5 BUF ML Picks
Josh's Analysis:

The cyclical nature of rivalries in professional sports suggests this could be a ripe time for Josh Allen and the Bills to overcome the Chiefs following 3 failed attempts. However, it's a difficult ask against the most prolific QB of this generation on his home field, with an historic Super Bowl three-peat attempt looming. Although many respected analysts are on the Bills, you'll never find a cheaper price to back this dynastic Kansas City club with the highest of stakes.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 5:56 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadBuffalo +2 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+961
33-21-4 in Last 58 NFL Picks
+524
22-15-4 in Last 41 NFL ATS Picks
+475
8-3-1 in Last 12 KC ATS Picks
Zack's Analysis:

The Buffalo Bills for the fourth time in the last five seasons will get their shot on knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs. Unlike years past Josh Allen has put an emphasis on protecting the football, which has led to a career low in interceptions. The Bills with Josh Allen have four capable runners with James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis. Expect the Bills to build on their regular season blue print which was a near ten minute time of possession advantage over the Chiefs. Grab the Bills in the AFC Championship.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 4:58 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total CarriesIsiah Pacheco Under 8.5 Total Carries -130
WIN
Unit1.0
+1150
64-45 in Last 109 NFL Player Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:

IP runs hard but he doesn’t look right. He's still not even close to back from his injury. I think KHunt gets at least as many carries if not more.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 4:24 pm UTC on Sugar House
Avatar
Total ReceptionsNoah Gray Over 1.5 Total Receptions -142
LOSS
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Bills beat up at LB and safety. Chiefs weapons on the outside have speed and will divert attention there. Oh and Kelce looks like Kelce again. Mahomes loves going to TE No. 2 in the playoffs and especially for high-percentage throws on short yardage. He's over this in 4 straight playoffs games dating back to their defeat of the Bills in Buffalo last year. Also gained more confidence and targets from Mahomes through the season as Kelce's effectiveness waned.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 3:58 pm UTC on DraftKings
1st Half Total Points1st Half Under 24.5 -122
LOSS
Unit1.0
+458
18-9 in Last 27 NFL Game Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:

Going over 24 1/2 means that you will either need four touchdowns or three TDs and 2 field goals. That’s asking a lot for teams that will be under pressure and with a KC team that is no longer playing 35-31 games.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 3:46 pm UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadKansas City -1.5 -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+1879
45-24-1 in Last 70 NFL Picks
+1779
44-24-1 in Last 69 NFL ATS Picks
+670
10-3-2 in Last 15 BUF ATS Picks
Emory's Analysis:

What makes the Chiefs such a tough opponent in games like this is that they don't beat themselves. What also gives me reservations about the Bills in this matchup is them being without S Taylor Rapp who was an integral part of the run defense and two high safety look. Expect a big day for Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco vs the Bills.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 12:20 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Anytime Touchdown ScorerTravis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer +130
LOSS
Unit1.0
+214
4-2 in Last 6 NFL Player Props Picks
Megan's Analysis:

After a mediocre regular season, Travis Kelce exploded last week in the Divisional Round for 117 receiving yards and a touchdown Saturday against the Texans. This was similar to last season, after an average regular season, he broke out for 355 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Since Patrick Mahomes has been his quarterback, Kelce has 19 postseason touchdowns in 19 postseason games. I like getting plus odds for Kelce to add to his postseason touchdown total on Sunday.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 2:33 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsPatrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Total Rushing Yards -113
WIN
Unit1.0
+214
4-2 in Last 6 NFL Player Props Picks
Megan's Analysis:

Patrick Mahomes takes off and runs more in the postseason when everything is on the line. Through 19 postseason games in his career, Mahomes averages 28.3 rushing yards per game. Sunday should be a competitive game against the Bills and I like Mahomes to take off and put the team on his back if needed. Unless we get major negative yards kneel downs, I like Mahomes to clear this number Sunday.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 2:26 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Passing TouchdownsJosh Allen Over 1.5 Total Passing Touchdowns +136
WIN
Unit1.0
+214
4-2 in Last 6 NFL Player Props Picks
Megan's Analysis:

While the Bills have been more run-heavy this season, I believe they'll put the ball in Josh Allen's hands when it matters most. Allen has historically played the Chiefs well, as he's thrown for seven touchdown passes in three playoff matchups against the Chiefs. Allen threw for two or more touchdown passes in 11 games this season. I like getting plus odds and this price for something Allen has done two of three times against the Chiefs in the playoffs.

Pick Made: Jan 26, 2:10 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsXavier Worthy Over 3.5 Total Rushing Yards -113
WIN
Unit0.5
+850.5
18-8 in Last 26 NFL Player Props Picks
Todd's Analysis:

I don't see a massive edge here but do see upside in banking on Worthy to have a positive rush or two on Sunday. Worthy had one rushing attempt vs Houston and was gobbled up in the backfield for an eight yard loss. Prior to that Worthy had at least 1 rushing attempt in 6 of 7 games and finished with five or more receiving yards. I'll look for KC to get inventive with their speedster in the AFC title game

Pick Made: Jan 25, 6:47 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsJames Cook Over 55.5 Total Rushing Yards -113
WIN
Unit1.0
+1464
40-22 in Last 62 NFL Player Props Picks
Sia's Analysis:

James Cook has cruised past this number in 4 of his last 6 games. More importantly, the Chiefs have shown themselves to be vulnerable against the run down the stretch of the season, and that includes last week against Joe Mixon and the Texans. Cook is projected to get 14 carries and he only requires 4 YPC to attain this number on that volume. I suspect he'll do much better than that. Expect a heavy dose of Josh Allen and James Cook and look for them both to have success.

Pick Made: Jan 25, 4:26 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total CarriesJames Cook Over 13.5 Total Carries -128
LOSS
Unit1.0
+147
11-8 in Last 19 NFL Player Props Picks
Thomas's Analysis:

This total feels low for Cook. He's carried the ball 17 and 23 times in Buffalo's two playoff games. Last season, Cook had 18 carries in both of his postseason games. The only way I don't see Cook being a big part of the Bills' offense is if they are getting blown out. I'm not expecting that to happen, so I'll take Cook over 13.5 carries. I won't be surprised if this closes at 15.5 on Sunday.

Pick Made: Jan 25, 3:59 am UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Anytime Touchdown ScorerJosh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+147
11-8 in Last 19 NFL Player Props Picks
Thomas's Analysis:

Allen is -115 to score a touchdown on Sunday. I think those are pretty good odds considering if the Bills get close, they will use their version of the "Tush Push." Allen has scored 11 rushing touchdowns in his last 10 games and I think he's a good bet to score again in the AFC Championship Game.

Pick Made: Jan 25, 2:58 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsJosh Allen Over 47.5 Total Rushing Yards -111
LOSS
Unit1.0
+147
11-8 in Last 19 NFL Player Props Picks
Thomas's Analysis:

This number is inflated but I don't see any scenario where Allen doesn't use his legs whenever possible with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Allen went for 55 in the first meeting and the Chiefs defense allowed the eighth most rushing yards to quarterbacks during the regular season. I think Allen can get to 50 here. Me, and the rest of the civilized world.

Pick Made: Jan 25, 2:54 am UTC on BetMGM
Point SpreadKansas City -1.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+2577
84-53-4 in Last 141 NFL ATS Picks
+725
16-8 in Last 24 BUF ATS Picks
Adam's Analysis:

To be the man, you gotta beat the man. And the Chiefs, most definitely, are the man. Here are the splits: Buffalo is 4-0 against Kansas City in the regular season, 0-3 in the playoffs since 2021. KC covered each time. Patrick Mahomes is dominant ATS when getting a second shot playing the same defense, and this Bills unit is down a couple key players. (He is also dominant in the postseason, of course.) Buffalo is 5-4 ATS on the road this season, while Kansas City is 6-1 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or less (or underdog). The Chiefs have gotten healthy with extra rest coming at the most opportune time for the two-time reigning champions. Update: Take this as pick 'em -115.

Pick Made: Jan 25, 1:00 am UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsJames Cook Over 55.5 Total Rushing Yards -114
WIN
Unit1.0
+112
4-3 in Last 7 NFL Player Props Picks
Alex's Analysis:

James Cook has been the Bills best skill position player and eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his 3 year career. Cook has capped off his regular with two good playoff games and totaled just under 200 yards on 4.7 YPC versus a pair of excellent run defenses in Baltimore and Denver. Now he’s facing a KC defense that has struggled recently. Look for the Bills to continue to ride their star RB.

Pick Made: Jan 24, 8:22 pm UTC on FanDuel
Money LineKansas City -125
WIN
Unit1.5
+96
4-2 in Last 6 NFL Picks
+120
2-1 in Last 3 KC ML Picks
Daniel's Analysis:

Josh Allen is 4-1 SU/ATS against Mahomes in the regular season. In the playoffs, it’s been a different story. Allen is 0-3 SU/ATS against the Chiefs in the postseason, and this will be the 2nd meeting between KC & Buffalo this season. Mahomes is 24-7 SU in the “revenge spot” after losing to the same opponent in the previous matchup. He’s been incredible in Jan/Feb, going 15-2 SU at home or on a neutral site. When Mahomes has been listed as an underdog or a favorite of a FG or less, he is 27-9-1 ATS. The Chiefs are going for the first “Three-Peat” in NFL history, and I’m not going to stand in front of that train. Chiefs find a way. Mahomes is a wizard.

Pick Made: Jan 24, 7:30 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total CarriesKareem Hunt Over 8.5 Total Carries -102
WIN
Unit1.0
+192
10-7 in Last 17 NFL Player Props Picks
Dave's Analysis:

Hunt's been the better Chiefs RB over their past four games, averaging 4.0 yards per rush to Pacheco's 2.8. Hunt's also had at least nine carries in 3 of his past 4. Hunt has played more and done more than Pacheco: More snaps and carries in the red zone, and more than twice as many snaps and carries than Pacheco in the second halves of their past four games with at least six carries then in each game. Hunt seems to be the best option to give them some semblance of a rushing presence against a Bills squad that's let up 4.6 yards per rush and an 18.4% 10-yard rush rate in their past five games with their starters.

Pick Made: Jan 24, 3:35 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total ReceptionsDeAndre Hopkins Under 2.5 Total Receptions -135
WIN
Unit1.0
+378
151-121 in Last 272 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

DeAndre Hopkins ran a season-low 13 routes in the divisional round win over Houston. He was targeted once without a catch. With Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and others soaking up targets, look for Hopkins to fall below this prop total for the third straight game.

Pick Made: Jan 24, 3:14 am UTC on Sugar House
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsDalton Kincaid Over 31.5 Total Receiving Yards -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+378
151-121 in Last 272 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

Dalton Kincaid has had a disappointing season, but this is the best possible matchup. The Chiefs allow an NFL-high 69.8 receiving yards to opposing tight ends and also have allowed the most yards per target to the position. Kincaid did not play in the regular-season meeting. In his absence, Dawson Knox caught four of six targets for 40 yards and two backup tight ends each received a target.

Pick Made: Jan 24, 3:04 am UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsKhalil Shakir Over 55.5 Total Receiving Yards -114
LOSS
Unit1.0
+90
2-1 in Last 3 NFL Player Props Picks
Micah's Analysis:

The last time Khalil Shakir faced the Chiefs in November he had 12 targets for eight catches and 70 yards. And the two games of the playoffs so far he's been an integral part with six receptions in each game and over 60 yards. When the Bills are looking for immediate success they go to Shakir. They know it. So do the Chiefs. But they can't stop it. Over in the yardage.

Pick Made: Jan 24, 2:19 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsDawson Knox Over 13.5 Total Receiving Yards -125
LOSS
Unit1.0
+330.5
16-11 in Last 27 NFL Player Props Picks
Eric's Analysis:

We're getting a 20+ yard discount with Dawson Knox compared to his teammate Dalton Kincaid. Both had two targets last week but Knox ran more routes. Knox had 40 yards on four catches vs. the Chiefs in Week 11 and two grabs for 38 yards vs. Denver in the Wild Card round. All we need is one catch to get this done in the AFC Championship Game and I like our chances.

Pick Made: Jan 24, 12:46 am UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsTravis Kelce Over 67.5 Total Receiving Yards -114
LOSS
Unit1.5
+330.5
16-11 in Last 27 NFL Player Props Picks
Eric's Analysis:

Travis Kelce continues to up his game in the playoffs, having topped 70 yards in 14 straight playoff games dating back to 2020. In 13 of those 14 games, he has 75 or more yards. I just don't know how the books continue to make his lines so low. Meanwhile, Buffalo surrendered nine catches and 134 yards to Baltimore's tight ends last week. I'm playing this up to 75 on Sunday.

Pick Made: Jan 24, 12:44 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total CarriesIsiah Pacheco Under 8.5 Total Carries -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+378
151-121 in Last 272 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

In their last three meaningful games, the Chiefs have thrown the ball about 70 percent of the time. Look for another pass-heavy game script Sunday, as Patrick Mahomes has all his weapons healthy. That doesn't leave a ton of running back carries. Lately, Kareem Hunt has been more effective than Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco has received nine, six and five carries in his last three outings -- all of which had a positive game script. He has not averaged better than 3.9 yards per carry in a game since late November.

Pick Made: Jan 23, 7:38 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total CarriesPatrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Total Carries -104
WIN
Unit1.5
+1498.5
68-49 in Last 117 NFL Player Props Picks
Daniel's Analysis:

We cashed this prop last week with ease. Mahomes logged 7 carries, 3 of which came on QB kneels. He was also forced to run when flushed out of the pocket by Texans DE’s Will Anderson & Danielle Hunter. Mahomes’ sneaky elusiveness always seems to shine in January. I expect him to take off against Bills vaunted pass rushers Greg Rousseau & Von Miller, who have been getting consistent QB pressure all season long. Look for Mahomes to use his pump fake, and then use his legs. Once again, I prefer Mahomes’ rush attempts prop over his rushing yards prop, in case of a positive game script for the Chiefs that includes kneels for negative yardage to close the game.

Pick Made: Jan 23, 5:18 pm UTC on Sugar House
Point SpreadBuffalo +2 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+858
52-39-2 in Last 93 NFL ATS Picks
+125
8-6 in Last 14 BUF ATS Picks
Micah's Analysis:

I have a legitimate reason to have the Buffalo Bills selected to win on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs and my first point is that the team has a plus-24 turnover margin which is 8 more than the next closest team. They only have eight turnovers on the entire season. Contrast that with the Chiefs their turnover margin is plus-six and they had 14 turnovers. I've been wrong with KC but this time I'm right. I saw on November 17th that the Chiefs showed some of their demise against the Bills that day the Bills won 30-21. It's not the playoffs where the Bills usually lose to the Chiefs but it's the most recent meeting and the Bills had that game in control. Bills.

Pick Made: Jan 22, 11:21 pm UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Anytime Touchdown ScorerJosh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer +100
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1150
64-45 in Last 109 NFL Player Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:

And watching the bills against Baltimore, one of the things that stood out to me Was that Josh Allen was clearly the Bills’ best option inside the five. And he is undeniably their best option inside the one. Thus, in anything but a wild nontraditional game script I think Josh Allen will find his way into the end zone on a short run. And there is no way this is a plus money prop on Sunday. Grab now.

Pick Made: Jan 22, 9:46 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadBuffalo +2 -110
LOSS
Unit0.5
+180
3-2 in Last 5 NFL Picks
+90
2-1-1 in Last 4 NFL ATS Picks
+437
16-11-2 in Last 29 BUF ATS Picks
Larry's Analysis:

The Bills are dealing with at least two key injuries, but I'm hopeful Christian Benford and Taylor Rapp will play. Either way, I have to back the Bills and their fully healthy offense to outscore Kansas City's disappointing attack -- or at least cover. While the Chiefs averaged 4.2 yards per play in their home win over Houston, the Bills just put up 31 and 27 points against a pair of elite defenses. K.C.'s run defense has shown cracks lately; the Bills have a strong O-line, multiple talented backs and Josh Allen to exploit that vulnerability and control the clock.

Pick Made: Jan 22, 4:28 am UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsJames Cook Over 53.5 Total Rushing Yards -118
WIN
Unit1.5
+378
151-121 in Last 272 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

James Cook averaged 3.9 yards per carry against a Ravens defense that had allowed 3.0 yards per carry over its previous three games. In the Wild Card round, Cook ripped a strong Broncos' run defense for 120 yards (5.2 ypc). Now he faces a Chiefs' run defense that's weakened lately. Since Week 12 (excluding the meaningless Week 18 game), K.C. has allowed the sixth-most explosive rushes. In that same span, K.C. has allowed 4.95 yards per carry to opposing running backs. The Texans averaged a whopping 3.48 yards before contact, enabling Joe Mixon to surprisingly gash K.C. for 88 yards on 18 carries (4.9 ypc). The Bills already have given Cook 40 carries in these playoffs.

Pick Made: Jan 22, 3:11 am UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total ReceptionsKeon Coleman Under 1.5 Total Receptions -114
WIN
Unit1.0
+1198
34-20 in Last 54 NFL Player Props Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

The Bills have a lot of options in the passing game for the Chiefs to defend, and nailing down who is going to get looks on a game-to-game basis can be tough. Keon Coleman, despite being on the field plenty as a rookie, just has not been that guy catching Josh Allen's eye. Throwing out the Week 18 game where many players rested and Coleman saw 10 targets (but caught only two), he's had one catch in five of his previous six games, and with Kansas City's talent at cornerback, I expect he's not going to have many chances in this game either.

Pick Made: Jan 22, 3:02 am UTC on Sugar House
Avatar
Anytime Touchdown ScorerTravis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer +130
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1198
34-20 in Last 54 NFL Player Props Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

Travis Kelce was in vintage form last week against the Texans, putting up his highest yardage total in a playoff game since the Super Bowl loss to the Bucs four years ago. He also scored a touchdown, which he's done in 14 of 19 playoff games since Patrick Mahomes took over the offense. The Bills had major issues against Ravens tight ends last week, and that should be a matchup Andy Reid exploits in this matchup. I'm surprised these odds aren't closer to even despite Kelce's limited trips to the end zone in the regular season.

Pick Made: Jan 22, 2:30 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Anytime Touchdown ScorerJosh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer +100
LOSS
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

The Bills love to empty it out in goal-to-go situations this time of year and let Allen pick his spot or bulldoze his way into the endzone. Used to be he could throw the ball all over Steve Spagnuolo's defense but the last 3 meetings Allen has a 79.3 rating vs this D with just 3 passing TDs and 2 INTs. But he's run at least 10 times in all of those games and has a rushing TD in all 3 and 2 in one game. Joe Brady calling things very conservatively. I see Allen keeping it in his own hands to finish drives.

Pick Made: Jan 22, 12:26 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsJosh Allen Over 47.5 Total Rushing Yards -116
LOSS
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

He's played three road playoff games - where protection gets dicey and things break down and running for your life happens - and gone over 67 yards rushing in all of them, including two at Arrowhead. If Spags blitzes him, he'll be looking to run with the DBs having their back to the play. For all the hoopla about their running game vs the Ravens, it was hardly dynamic and this will be difficult assignment for designed runs. Allen didn't have to run between the 20s last week but I see a lot more of it coming here. This is still well under his career playoff average (52.4 rushing yards per game).

Pick Made: Jan 21, 9:47 pm UTC on Sugar House
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Longest RushPatrick Mahomes Over 12.5 Longest Rush -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Mahomes has a rush of 15 yards or more in 6 straight playoff games. The Bills won't be playing nearly as much zone defense as they did last week in what was a anomaly for them to try to stop the run, but Mahomes on third-and-forever has an inane knack for getting 15 when he needs 14. The officials are giving him every call, he's looking to embellish to get more calls. He knows his legs are frustrating defenses. I expect at least one long, back-breaking scamper in this must-win game.

Pick Made: Jan 21, 4:30 pm UTC on BetMGM
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Longest Passing CompletionPatrick Mahomes Over 34.5 Longest Passing Completion -108
LOSS
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Mahomes is going to watch the tape of Baltimore vs Buffalo and lick his chops. Even despite Zay Flowers not playing and Rashaad Bateman being in and out with injuries, Lamar lit up Buffalo's middling safeties in the middle of the field. And with Taylor Rapp ailing, communications issues could loom larger. KC has more weapons to worry about and I expect a very different approach from Andy Reid vs this defense. He's hit this in 6 of his last 9 games and with the INT issue no longer festering I see him letting it hang out more here. Depth of Bills secondary should be a concern here.

Pick Made: Jan 21, 4:25 pm UTC on FanDuel
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Total ReceptionsJames Cook Over 2.5 Total Receptions +172
WIN
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

We liked this prop a lot last week, and prefer it on road here. The Bills have a stout OL but on the road is a different ask. KC will blitz more (Ravens almost never did) and Chris Jones and George Karlaftis are going to put heat on Josh Allen. Early-down checkdowns and screens will be in order and Joe Brady called a ridiculously conservative game last week, despite being at home vs a rookie defensive coordinator who is extremely risk averse. How do you think Spags is going to play it? Cook has faced KC three times as a starter (twice in playoffs and has 5-7, 4-12 and 5-83 receiving vs them. Crowded backfield, yes, but not so much on early downs.

Pick Made: Jan 21, 4:12 pm UTC on FanDuel
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Total Passing TouchdownsPatrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Total Passing Touchdowns -152
LOSS
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Back in the day, you might have to catch this at 2.5 TDs. Sure, the Chiefs offense has become far more pedestrian in recent years, but this is still the postseason GOAT. This will be Mahomes's 20th playoff game - he has never gone 2 straight without hitting this (1 last week). He has 42 passing TDs in 10 playoff games. This is his time and his running game is still kinda janky. Against this Bills D, there will be way more deep shots vs a tepid pass rush (unlike Texans) and the WRs will be way more involved. Mahomes has gone over this total13 times in his first 19 playoff games.

Pick Made: Jan 21, 4:03 pm UTC on Sugar House
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Anytime Touchdown ScorerTravis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer +130
LOSS
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

We ride this in the playoffs and the longer the week goes, the less value you get. It's now 20 TDs in the last 20 playoff games for Kelce. Mediocre regular season by his standards and facing a team with a top defense? Didn't matter last week and won't here. Patrick Mahomes feeds him in playoffs. Matt Milano and Co. might do a decent job on him between the 20s but RZ will be tough. Mahomes so adept at buying time with legs before he hits his main man. This number opened +175 last week but knew it wouldn't last long.

Pick Made: Jan 21, 3:57 pm UTC on FanDuel
Over / UnderOver 47.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+1421
39-23 in Last 62 NFL Picks
+180
4-2 in Last 6 NFL O/U Picks
+735
14-6 in Last 20 KC O/U Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

Both these offenses had trouble getting on track despite wins in the divisional round, as the pair combined for less than 500 yards and both sat well below 5.0 yards per play. I believe they'll have more success against each other. The Bills are dealing with key injuries in the secondary, and if No. 1 corner Christian Benford isn't cleared then Patrick Mahomes shouldn't have much issue in the passing game, especially with pressure not likely to be as big an issue. Buffalo was the only team to score 30 on Kansas City (excluding Week 18), and the Bills' depth at receiver makes them tougher to defend for a Chiefs defense that wasn't that impressive despite the score last week. Both teams score 24 here.

Pick Made: Jan 21, 2:33 pm UTC on DraftKings
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Total Receiving YardsNoah Gray Over 11.5 Total Receiving Yards -120
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1198
34-20 in Last 54 NFL Player Props Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

The return of Marquise Brown in Week 16 bumped Noah Gray from the starting lineup, and he saw just one target in each of the last three regular-season games while playing less than 50% of the snaps in each. But his usage was back to 57% against the Texans in a game where he caught three passes for 14 yards, a similar line to what he did against the Bills in the postseason last year. This is a great matchup for Chiefs tight ends after the Ravens threw it to their TE duo 12 times for 134 yards, and Gray could hit this Over on just one catch.

Pick Made: Jan 20, 7:34 pm UTC on BetMGM
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Total Receiving YardsTravis Kelce Over 68.5 Total Receiving Yards -114
LOSS
Unit0.5
+141.5
12-7 in Last 19 NFL Player Props Picks
Jeff's Analysis:

Travis Kelce has participated in 23 postseason games, including the Super Bowls. He has exceeded this number in 19 of those 23 contests, with an impressive streak of 14 consecutive games. That's hard to ignore. His postseason average is significantly higher in the playoffs, demonstrating that he performs best in January and February. Again.

Pick Made: Jan 20, 7:06 pm UTC on FanDuel
Money LineKansas City -114
WIN
Unit1.0
+493
9-7 in Last 16 NFL ML Picks
+155
3-2 in Last 5 BUF ML Picks
Jason's Analysis:

No way I am picking against Patrick Mahomes (16-3 in playoffs) here. Mahomes has lost one time since Christmas of 2024 and I don't think the same team is getting him twice. The Chiefs are geniuses at managing games and understanding how to ebb and flow and be in position to win late. The Bills' D has significant flaws and is overly reliant on turnovers (allowed 7.3/play to Ravens); KC, like Buffalo, isn't turning it over. The Bills lack of pass rush will be a major problem as will their lack of size. Watch Andy Reid get a 6th OL involved in the power run game. KC has dominant special teams as well. The Chiefs are on a mission for a threepeat.

Pick Made: Jan 20, 2:35 pm UTC on Sugar House

Team Injuries

Buffalo Bills
Monday, Feb 10, 2025
Avatar
OT
Tommy Doyle
KneeQuestionable
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FS
Taylor Rapp
HipQuestionable
Avatar
QB
Shane Buechele
NeckQuestionable
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LB
Baylon Spector
CalfQuestionable
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CB
Christian Benford
ConcussionQuestionable
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OT
Travis Clayton
ShoulderQuestionable
Kansas City Chiefs
Tuesday, Feb 11, 2025
Avatar
DT
Chris Jones
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Mecole Hardman
KneeIr
Avatar
DT
Marlon Tuipulotu
UndisclosedIr
Avatar
LB
Jack Cochrane
AnkleIr
Avatar
DE
BJ Thompson
ChestNfi-r
Avatar
TE
Jody Fortson
Knee - ACLIr
Avatar
TE
Jared Wiley
Knee - ACLIr
Avatar
WR
Rashee Rice
KneeIr
Avatar
WR
Skyy Moore
AbdomenIr
Avatar
K
Spencer Shrader
HamstringIr
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