The Golden State Warriors have the daunting task of going back on the road after just defeating the Rockets forty eight hours ago. Jimmy Butler during the Rockets series did not make more then seven field goals from game two on. That makes it hard to clear a points prop, but Butler also has had a knack for setting the tone in a new series in game one. He also gets the edge as Minnesota has not seen him in a Warriors uniform. All four regular season matchups were played before January 15th, when he was a Miami Heat. Take his prop over in game one.

The Warriors had one day of rest after finishing off the Rockets in a seven-game series The Timberwolves had five days of rest after beating the Lakers in five games. The Warriors "Big 3" of Steph, Butler and Draymond all played 200+ minutes last series, only the 4th trio aged 34 or older to do that in the last half century. Look for the fresher Timberwolves to roll in Game 1.

Buddy Hield has started four straight games for the Warriors. His best performance came in Game 7 against the Rockets when he scored 33 points. He logged at least 29 minutes in three games against the Rockets and he scored at least 15 points in each of those games. While the Timberwolves are a good defensive team, Hield scored at least 11 points in three of four games against them during the regular season. The Warriors are working with a tight rotation right now, so with the expectation that Hield plays around 25 minutes in Game 1, he has a favorable opportunity to score at least 10 points.

Naz Reid was mostly an afterthought in Game 5 against the Lakers, as Rudy Gobert dominated. I'm expecting Reid to be pivotal in this series, though. The undersized Warriors will force Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle to give up the ball, and other Wolves will have to make catch-and-shoot 3s. That fits Reid's game perfectly. He cleared this prop total in all four regular-season matchups with Golden State, and also went Over this number in three of five first-round playoff games. Coming off an unusually quiet performance, look for Reid to show up big in Game 1.

The OT helped in the Knicks-Celtics game last night, as overs continued their recent hot run in the playoffs, now 16-5 the last 21 after the unders showed good early foot in the first week of the postseason. The Warriors got an unexpected 33 points from Buddy Hield in Sunday's close-out win over the Rockets, which was the one playoff under since the weekend, but the previous three vs. Houston landed over, and the last three regular-season meetings vs. the Wolves all landed 216 or higher (Steph Curry 31 pg in those three clashes). Meanwhile Minny enters Round 2 having hit 116 points or higher in six of its last eight, after scoring nearly 123 pg across their last seventeen regular-season games. Play Warriors-Wolves Over

This bet is based on Anthony Edwards continues to play very unselfish basketball and giving maximum defensive effort. He averaged 4.6 assists per game this season but in the MIN wins vs LA he averaged 7.8 assists. He averaged 5.9 rebounds per game but averaged 9 in the MIN wins vs LA. The 41.5 PRA line is based on his season average of 38 with a bump up for extra usage in the playoffs, but in these playoffs Edwards is emphasizing rebounds and assists which obviously count as 1 vs a bucket that counts for 2 or 3. The Under is 29-12, 70.7% at home this season (66.7% overall). He only averaged 37.3 PRA (5-2 Under) vs Golden State the last 2 seasons.

This looks like another tough match-up for the Warriors to me. Another team with ample length to give them issues. Minnesota has superior depth, a more playoff-hardened coach and a true athletic, two-way superstar in Anthony Edwards. Steph was not good in the first round. Jimmy Butler still seems beat up to me. The Wolves have evolved offensively and defensively since the teams last met Jan 15. The Warriors will struggle to score 95 points in some of thee games. Minnesota has covered 6 of the last 7 at home. Warriors covered 4 of last 10 overall. Obvious massive rest advantage here. Golden State is 9-12-2 ATS with less rest.