FanDuel. Christian Braun has been the unsung hero for the Nuggets in these playoffs. Playing upwards of 38 minutes per night in the tight Denver rotation, Braun has cleared this line in four of the last five playoff games, and 19 of the last 27 overall games with a fully healthy Nuggets starting five. He’s also exceeded this line in all five games against the Nuggets this season. Jamal Murray has a brutal individual matchup, and I do expect the Thunder to adjust their coverages towards Nikola Jokic. With Michael Porter Jr. clearly less than 100% health-wise, I love Braun to be the beneficiary of Jokic’s playmaking.

Overs (17-6 the last 23) continue on their hot playoff roll; if we eliminate Golden State's last two molasses-paced games, overs would be on a 17-4 postseason run into tonight. Denver and OKC had no trouble clearing 225 on Monday, hence the bump up in tonight's total for Game 2 . OKC of course couldn't hold a lead late in Game 1, perhaps to do a bit with rust from the nine-day layoff after the conclusion of the Memphis series. The Thunder has scored at a brisk 124 ppg clip the last four vs. the Nuggets, and expect a bit more efficiency from Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren (a combined 10 for 31 FGs in Game 1) in support of SGA. Play Nuggets-Thunder Over

Jalen Williams arguably cost the Thunder Game 1, as he shot 5 of 20. That included 2 of 9 from deep. I like Williams to bounce back overall and also to make at least two 3-pointers against the Nuggets' deep drop defense. Williams shot 42.4 percent on 3-pointers post-All Star Break, and he has cleared this prop total in four straight playoff games after only playing 26 minutes in the Game 1 massacre of Memphis. Denver gives up the fourth-most made 3-pointers to the small forward position.

Russell Westbrook is the only player that the Nuggets can rely on off the bench right now. He scored 18 points and played 30 minutes in Game 1. The only other bench players to take the floor were Peyton Watson (15 minutes) and Julian Strawther (six minutes). Those two combined to score five points. Westbrook has played six full playoff games and he scored at least 14 points in each of them. This line is two points higher than when I took the over in Game 1, but I still like the over to hit.

The Nuggets got their shocking Game 1 win in OKC to steal home-court advantage with Nikola Jokic putting up a PRA of 70. But I tend to think the Nugs will be out of gas tonight and half-punt on the game if they get down big early in order to give Joker some rare rest ahead of Game 3 in Denver. As it is, our model has Jokic with a PRA of 46.9.

Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort combined for 34 points and nine three-pointers in Game 1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 33 points and fell two assists shy of a triple-double. The Nuggets shot just 10-for-32 from behind the arc. Still, the Thunder lost. Nikola Jokic is going to dominate this series and Russell Westbrook has finally given the Nuggets a reliable member of their second unit. I expect the Thunder to win Game 2, but look for the Nuggets to keep it close enough to cover this big number.

Isaiah Hartenstein is going to play a key role in this series against Nikola Jokic. While he couldn’t slow down Jokic in Game 1, Hartenstein played 29 minutes. That was more than he played in any of the previous four games against the Grizzlies. He turned his increased role into 12 points and nine rebounds. He played at least 26 minutes both times he faced the Nuggets during the regular season and finished with at least 21 combined points and rebounds in both games. With a key role in hand, I like him to hit this over.

Alex Caruso was huge off the bench in Game 1 and as a result saw additional minutes. With that being said, we’re getting an inflated line and my projections have a significant edge on the under on his AR line, PRA, and Points in that order. This is also available on Kambi/BetRivers at (-130).

In simulations the under is hitting over 70% of the time with an average model total of 217. I’m not sure if I’m THAT confident but this line is up significantly from the early lookahead total (221.5) and the closing line of 228.5 from Game 1 (opened 225.5). Pending success in the playoffs, this season’s OKC team could go down as one of the 5 best defensive teams of all time. As projected they forced a ton of turnovers while also holding Denver to 44% shooting (just 31% from three). Getting the defensive rebound is part of finishing the defensive possession and if OKC does that they should limit Denver’s offense and not have to score more than 120 themselves to win.

I am basically going all in on Chet Holmgren as the key to OKC covering the first quarter, getting defensive rebounds to limit Denver’s scoring. His home trend is not good with just a 13.8 average (7-13 over 14.5) compared to his 17.1 avg (12-5 over) on the road. But this unusual split is due to how dominant OKC was in the regular season at home, but no one expects Game 2 of the playoffs vs a championship team to be like smashing the Hornets at home in December. When he has 30+ minutes the over is 12-2. Our projection of 16.1 is in 31 minutes

Christian Braun is playing huge minutes and is coming off a 40 minute performance where he combined for 27 PRA. Braun is a consistently playing 40 minutes a night in the playoffs and I don’t expect that to change considering Michael Porter Jr. has become unplayable. We’re getting a nice discount here as Braun averaged over 23 PRA during the regular season with that number increasing to 26 PRA post All-Star break. Braun should continue to benefit from playing alongside the GOAT offensive player.