This feels like a natural spot to fade Alex Caruso, who has inarguably had the best series of his career, especially from a scoring standpoint against San Antonio. Caruso has never averaged 11 PPG in a single season, nor has he done that in a playoff series, so needless to say this is a lofty line for him. Role players typically struggle on the road and I expect Caruso to come back down to earth tonight.

This is a significantly discounted combination line for De’Aaron Fox who has eclipsed this in his last six postseason games, including both appearances in the Western Conference Finals. After missing the first two games of this series, Fox logged 31 minutes in consecutive games and had Game 4 not been a blowout he was set to play more, indicating he appears to be operating without limitations. I was very encouraged by how he’s played and think this combo line presents strong value.

Chet Holmgren had a very disappointing Game 1 performance against the Spurs, however I expect him to bounce back tonight. Chet is averaging 17 PPG in the playoffs and has cleared this number in 7/9 postseason games. Im betting on him having a much more inspired performance.

Donovan Mitchell has played well throughout the playoffs, however I’ll be fading him in Game 1 versus the Knicks. Mitchell is averaging 25.6 in the postseason and has largely played well but this is a big line for Mitchell who is facing an elite Knicks perimeter defense. New York held Tyrese Maxey to just 18 PPG in the conference semifinals and the combination of OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have proven to be an elite defensive tandem. This is a very tough matchup for Mitchell.

Ajay Mitchell has eclipsed this scoring prop in 7/8 Thunder playoff games, including seven consecutive games. Mitchell is essentially a rookie and has proven to be a tremendous natural scorer who has provided the Thunder with a secondary scoring option. Even with Jalen Williams back in the lineup, I still expect Mitchell to play 25-30 minutes.

We’ve unsuccessfully faded Harris twice in this series but I am not afraid to go right back to the proverbial well again. While Harris has been a reliable secondary scorer, these numbers are not sustainable and he is a regression candidate. I prefer to attack his PRA line due to his RA numbers being inflated as well.

This is a significantly discounted combination line for Julius Randle who has been mostly a non factor throughout this series. With that being said, this feels much closer to his floor considering he’s averaging 23 PRA in this series coupled with dismal shooting splits of 37%/27%. Minnesota is going to need Randle to step up tonight in a pivotal Game 5.

Tobias Harris has provided the Pistons with a reliable secondary scoring option, however I think he’s a significant regression candidate. With the Cavs down 0-2 and the series heading back to Cleveland, I expect a more inspired effort from the Cavs and I don’t think Harris can sustain his current level of output.

Tobias Harris has been sensational for the Pistons throughout the postseason and has seen his scoring average rise over 8 PPG. While he’s playing more and his usage is up, that’s simply unsustainable considering his usage rate, thus hes a regression candidate. This is a bloated line and I would fade him at 17.5 as well.

After a dismal 5 game stretch to open the Knicks series against Atlanta, Mikal Bridges was in the midst or arguably the worst slump of his career. As a result this combo line is extremely low, however I was very encouraged by his two most recent appearances where he not only played well but also logged significant minutes. Bridges is still an integral part of the team and the Knicks are at their best when he’s active on offense. I’m comfortable taking this at 17.5.

Despite an extremely impressive regular season and opening round, San Antonio finds themselves down 0-1 to a very game and dangerous Timberwolves squad. De’Aaron Fox was often passive and I expect him to be significantly immortal aggressive in a must win Game 2. We saw glimpses of his potency in the opening round and I still contend that Fox is one of the best crunch time scorers in the league and capable of eclipsing this combo line in one half if he’s aggressive. This feels like a spot he’s going to put the team on his back. I also like his points line at 17.5 if you don’t have access to his PA.

James Harden has been underwhelming so far this postseason, which has been a reoccurring theme for him throughout his career. With that being said, this is simply too low of a line for Harden who averaged just shy of 37 PRA in the regular season. Harden is playing heavy minutes and this number is much closer to his floor than his ceiling, even in a tough matchup.

This is a large number for Jaden McDaniels considering that Anthony Edwards is tentatively expected to suit up tonight. McDaniels has seen his usage surge without AD which is partially why this line is this high. There is also significant blowout risk with the Spurs checking in as double digit favorites tonight.

The Cavs are going to need all the help they can get from Evan Mobley as they look to avoid getting bounced in the 1st round. Mobley has played well in this series having eclipsed this line in 4/6 games. Considering James Harden and Donovan Mitchell have both been fairly pedestrian by their standards, I expect Mobley to once again shoulder a large load offensively. I also expect him to play upwards of 40+ minutes.

Jaylen Brown had a terrific regular season capped off by averaging just shy of 29 PPG. The Celtics will need his scoring today as Jayson Tatum was ruled out, however I think this number should be between 28.5-29.5. The Sixers are playing very good defense in this series and I expect them to make life really difficult for Brown.