Alex's Picks (2 Live)
Jalen Suggs has been playing good basketball and the Magic are markedly better with him on the court. That being said, this is a large combination line that I would argue is slightly inflated coupled with a brutal matchup against the leagues best defense. The Magic are also 9.5 home underdogs which presents significant blowout risk as well. Suggs has been held under this line in 59% of his starts this season.
It’s been nothing short of impressive watching the development of Jalen Johnson who has flourished into one of the best wings in the NBA. Johnson’s playmaking and court vision have been particularly impressive and he’s second in the NBA with 12 triple doubles this season. With that being said, this is as massive combination line against an above average defense in a game that could be paced down. Johnson has also struggled against the Magic both throughout his career and this season. I’d play this combination line down to 40.5.
We’re getting a discount on this combination line for Deni Avdija who is set to take on the Utah Jazz. This is a plus matchup considering the Jazz play at the 2nd fastest Pace in the league coupled with ranking dead last in Total Defense. Avdija previously missed six games with a lower back injury but has returned to the lineup and looks to be playing without any limitations. This looks like a potential ceiling game.
RJ Barrett is in the midst of arguably his best stretch of the season, however this is an extremely large combo line, especially considering Barrett averages approximately under 27 combined PRA on the season. Barrett isn’t getting much in the way of peripheral stats (rebs and assists) and I don’t think he’s likely to sustain his current shooting splits, or shot volume. I expect Barrett to come back down to earth, sooner than later.
It looked like Austin Reaves was shot out of a cannon to begin the season and he thrived in a high usage role, while playing like a potential MVP candidate over the first 10 games of the year. Fast forward to mid March and Reaves production has tailed off a great deal playing in a loaded Lakers offense featuring two of the highest usage players in the league in Luka and Lebron. Reaves is still capable of posting gaudy stat lines, however he is the third option whenever sharing the court with Luka and LeBron and possesses some drastic splits.
Dyson Daniels had a true breakout season last year that saw the 3rd year guard lead the Association in steals, by a massive margin, en route to winning the Most Improved Player hardware. Daniels hasn’t been able to replicate the same offensive success and has seen his scoring dip. This is a large combo line for Daniels who has eclipsed this in four consecutive games, however he has been held under this line in 61% of his appearances this season. The Hawks are also healthy and deploying a deep rotation. There is also some additional blowout risk with Atlanta checking in as nearly double digit favorites at home.
Kevin Durant has been playing very heavy minutes for the Houston Rockets and this was before being on the back half of a B2B set after playing a whopping 41 minutes in an OT game last night. In addition to not wanting to overload KD, the Rockets take on a short handed Blazers team where they are favored 6.5 points, thus providing some blowout potential. Both of these teams play at a sluggish pace and it wouldn’t surprise me if KD plays a few less minutes tonight. This game has a low projected total and I expect it be paced down.
Watching Collin Gillespie go from an undrafted undersized PG to a strong rotational player on a Suns team in the thick of the playoff chase has been nothing short of spectacular. With that being said this is a big combo line for Gillespie who has failed to eclipse this number in 14 of his last 18 appearances. The Suns are double digit favorites at home which could also lead to a couple less minutes if this game is a blowout.
RJ Barrett has quietly been solid for a Raptors team that has taken strides while subsequently developing what is a deep and young roster. Barrett has seen his efficiency improve compared to previous seasons, however this is a large number for the former Duke Blue Devil. The Raptors lack no shortage of high usage players capable of stuffing the stat sheet. Brandon Ingram is questionable but it sounds like he is more likely than unlikely to play, however if you want to cautious you could wait until lineups are announced, however there is a risk that this combo line could come down a notch or two.
Getting this line out ASAP as it’s only available on one major book. I’d play this down to 16.5. I would jump on this spot quickly. With Cooper Flagg set to return to the lineup, Marshall is likely to see a significantly less usage.
Brandon Podziemski has been rolling for a short handed Golden State team that’s been without Steph Curry since the end of January. Podz is a versatile combo guard, however we’re fading an inflated combo line as a result of some recent big performances. Podz has benefitted from some paced up matchups which is unlikely to be the case tonight against a sluggish Clippers team in a game environment that’s projected to be low scoring. I’d play this down to 26.5.
The Grizzlies are in in full tank mode as they look to position themselves for the future. Scottie Pippen Jr. is currently their starting PG, however he’s on a strict minutes cap as a result of coming back from an injury. Considering he’s unlikely to see more than 24 minutes, this is a super lofty combo line for a player that typically doesn’t shoot a ton.
The Spurs are absolutely rolling right now having failed to lose a game in the month of February. They’re getting a myriad of a contributions and are deep with a very balanced starting five. Devin Vassell has quietly been playing very well and has eclipsed 12 points in four of his previous five appearances, while averaging 16.6 PPG over that sample. I’ve also been very encouraged by his playing time. Vassell should handle 30+ minutes in a game that projects to be competitive.