It's back to the greatest year of them all, 1975, for the last time Missouri beat Bama. It was a Monday night season-opener at Legion Field in Birmingham, and behind HB Tony Galbraith, the Tigers pulled a 20-7 upset...a result that would eventual cost Bear Bryant a national title. Yet Mizzou hasn't beaten the Tide since it entered the SEC, and was a 34-0 loser in Tuscaloosa last season. Yet Eli Drinkwitz has done some deft work in the portal (Penn State QB Beau Pribula, ULM RB Ahmad Hardy) to keep the Tigers unbeaten. Wins over Kansas and South Carolina, however, might not be enough evidence to suggest the same vs. Bama, especially with Ty Simpson hitting stride at QB for the Tide. Play Alabama
I don't expect either one of these defenses to get a lot of stops. Alabama has struggled to stop the run all year and benefitted from two red zone turnovers by Vandy last week. Mizzou's secondary couldn't handle Kansas and South Carolina. What'll it do with Bama?
Missouri is averaging 45 points a game and is 5-0 on the season, covering three times. They face Alabama this week, who lost their first game at Florida State, and they’ve won and covered their last four games. They mean business, and also the fact that I've never seen Missouri beat Alabama. Missouri hasn't played anybody other than a mediocre Kansas and South Carolina this season, and they didn't cover against Massachusetts. Alabama has already won at Georgia, defeated Vanderbilt soundly, and crushed Wisconsin. Alabama also leads the nation in turnover margin at +9, turning the ball over only once. No fumbles the entire year so far. Alabama is looking to recreate past glory, and it re-establishes it against Missouri. Alabama covers.
We have been high on Missouri all year, and while we think Alabama is a top-5 team, the Crimson Tide are just 3-5 on the road since last season. Mizzou is 11-0 in FBS home games since last season, and while we would favor Alabama on a neutral field, the home field advantage is enough for us to slightly favor Missouri. We think Missouri will be able to run the ball against Alabama's defense, which has yet to live up to its preseason expectations. The 3.5 line also offers some insurance at a key number if Mizzou loses by a field goal.
With the way Ty Simpson is playing at QB, combined with a defense that continues to get healthier and more confident as the weeks roll along, Alabama enters this game looking like the Bama of old. Missouri is a very good team with a strong running game, but this will be their toughest test yet and we'll learn a lot about QB Beau Pribula in this big spot.
Alabama's road performance under head coach Kalen DeBoer has not been great. They are 2-5 away from Bryant-Denny Stadium since DeBoer took over, with four of those five losses coming against unranked opponents. The Tigers have won convincingly in all five games, including impressive victories over Kansas and South Carolina. Their bye week before this game and revenge from last year's shutout loss provide additional motivation. Quarterback Beau Pribula has been outstanding, completing 75.9% of his passes for 1,203 yards with nine touchdowns and just three interceptions. His mobility adds another dimension, contributing 121 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. The Crimson Tide is coming off two consecutive physical games. Take the points in this spot.
