I'll be watching "A Christmas Story" loop at around kickoff; shots at "Red Ryder" and we go until we can't. May not make the first one these days. Hawaii was dominant at home this season. It's a really interesting matchup in that both QBs are local lefties (Tua) and both coaches played QB at Hawaii -- interim Cal coach Nick Rolovich (Justin Wilcox was fired) backed up Timmy Chang at UH but then got a head coaching job there first. I have not been playing bowl games because I have no clue who is playing or the motivation. This feels like the Battle for Honolulu bragging rights, so I think we should get some quality football. Half unit as both teams have lost guys.
It's a home game for Hawaii, 6-1 SU this season at the bowl venue. It's also a familiar scenario for the Rainbow Warriors, 5-4 outright in this bowl. As for Cal, how the heck is a team with the statistically worst ground game in FBS still playing? The Bears lost by a combined 55 points to San Diego State and Stanford, two opponents that Hawaii handled easily by a combined 38 points. Cal has dropped bowl games SU the past two seasons. It is comforting to have FBS' premier kicker, Kansei Matsuzawa (25 for 26 on field goals) on your side.
Hawaii’s coaching staff is steady, while Cal’s is unsettled. Timmy Chang has turned Hawaii around, going from three wins in 2022 to 8-4 this season. Against other bowl teams, Hawaii nearly matched its opponents in yardage, while Cal struggled, being outgained by 54 yards per game. Special teams is a big advantage for Hawaii: they convert 95.6% of field goals (Cal just 73.3%) and rank 26th in punting (Cal is 125th). The Rainbow Warriors are better on both lines, rank 3rd in red-zone scoring compared to Cal’s 73rd, and the strength of schedule is closer than you might think. The home team has a +3.6 point differential, while Cal is -4.7. My model has Hawaii winning 62.1% of the time, even without WR Jackson Harris.
