Critical injuries to leading rusher Kevorian Barnes and safety Bud Clark hamper TCU. Cincinnati enters full strength with an offense averaging a dominant 6.6 yards per play (vs. TCU’s 5.8). The biggest mismatch is the Red Zone. Cincinnati is elite at finishing drives (89% scoring rate) and forcing stops (77% allowed), while TCU ranks 115th offensively and allows points on 85% of defensive trips. The Bearcats own the better offensive and defensive lines, as Cincinnati has a +1.2 sack differential (#1 in pressure rate allowed) while TCU is at 0.0. They are on a mission to end their losing skid in this revenge game, where they outgained TCU last year. My model has the wrong team favored.
