Mike's Picks (2 Live)
This spread has flipped, with Oklahoma opening at -1.5. Evidently, the betting public compared the teams' opening wins in the Crown and rightfully decided Baylor's was more impressive overall. However, Oklahoma did awaken late to dispose of depleted Colorado in overtime as apparent rust that can plague Crown entrants came into play. Keep in mind that the Sooners closed their season on a 9-3 SU run, quite a contrast to Baylor stumbling home 4-7. The Sooners are slightly better on offense and defense. The original line seems more appropriate than this one.
For two teams whose offenses function patiently, this total came up a tad high. Rutgers ranks 262nd in Division 1 for possessions per game, while Creighton stands 201st. The Bluejays often score a lot, owing to their proclivity for shooting threes, but the accuracy may dip in an unfamiliar arena. Guard Austin Swartz, who averages a fracton under 11 ppg, is an injury scratch. Tariq Francis, the Scarlet Knights' top scorer at just under 17 ppg, is dealing with a recent practice injury and could be slowed. Rutgers is hardly a points machine with him at optimum health.
Auburn arrives at the NIT Final Four after three less-than-dazzling wins at home, none in which the Tigers covered. The margins of victory were six, 11 and six points against lesser lights. Illinois State, by contrast, opened with a 21-point win in friendly confines, then knocked off the ACC's Wake Forest by three and NCAA Tournament-worthy Dayton by six on the road. The Redbirds' offense functions on the slow side; the team's games average 261st in possessions. A relatively slow pace makes the 7.5-point spot especially attractive, even though Auburn will strive to speed things up.
In a lower-level postseason tournament with little on the line, the faster-paced team is usually preferably to the slo-mo one. West Virginia operates as the third-slowest squad in Division 1, and Stanford has been afforded plenty of time to prepare. The Cardinal are comfortable playing on the road, having gone 8-6 SU and 3-3 on neutral hardwood. The Mountainers have dropped six in a row SU in impartial settings. They closed the season on a 3-6 SU slide. For extra incentive, Stanford coach Kyle Smith aims for his 300th career victory. His players should be driven to deliver it.
New Mexico blitzed through three opponents enroute to the NIT semifinals. All were home games -- same for Tulsa -- so the Lobos could be expected to cool off from their torrid scoring pace. The Golden Hurricane have been less impressive in part because of the absence of injured David Green (15.7 ppg). He returned for part-time duty in the latest game and might be ready to resume his usual minutes after a long break in the schedule. Tulsa has covered about two of every three games as an underdog. It will feel right at home with the Lobos' quick pace. The original spread has inched up, which makes the Golden Hurricane a fetching play.
The bottom line with a largely hard-to-handicap matchup in the Crown Invitational is this: Minnesota is 2-13 SU away from home, including losses in the last 10. Baylor was no road killer but at least went 5-10 outright. The Bears' KenPom rating is five points higher than Minnesota's, and they have covered in four of the last five. They must adjust to Minnesota's slow pace on offense, but let's count on coach Scott Drew figuring out a way to turn up the heat. Minnesota's roster remains on the small side after injuries thinned the available players, making Baylor's depth another advantage.
This spread has climbed three points with the news that Colorado has three defections to the transfer portal. Perhaps it should have shifted even more. The Buffaloes are missing three of their top four scorers -- Isaiah Johnson, Sebastian Rancik and Bangot Dak. (Apparently, the NIL money promised to players was not enough to persuade them to hang.) Oklahoma's motivation is iffy, given that the Sooners were the last team to miss the NCAA Tournament cut. They finished strong, knocking off five Big Dance teams down the stretch, and are clearly superior to the stripped-down Buffaloes. Perhaps they have something to prove.
The betting public is enamored with Duke, perhaps too much. The Blue Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings. At the same time, the public seemed to sour late in the season on UConn, which has covered in four of the last six. The Devils were rescued Friday by Caleb Foster, who returned almost overnight from foot surgery with a stellar game. He was back in a boot and on a scooter Saturday, and a repeat performance seems unlikely. The Huskies rank ninth for adjusted defense efficieny and have a big body in Tarris Reed Jr. to bang with Duke, the nation's second tallest team. Given that it would be no shocker if UConn wins outright, receiving this many points is welcome.
Illinois' defense has been stifling, with its last two opponents topping out at 55 points. Iowa's offense has been leisurely, with its last three opponents enduring games that had the fewest possessions in their seasons. Those are the primary ingredients for an Under. Iowa sharpshooter Bennett Stirtz has been frigid in the tournament on threes, nailing just six of 28, and the Illini held him to a dozen points and 2-for-8 from afar in their regular season clash. As for Iowa, it paced the Big Ten in turnovers forced, which can limit Illini baskets.
Given Tennessee's No. 11 ranking for adjusted defense efficiency, the points are worth taking. Iowa State star Joshua Jefferson is listed as questionable, which suggests he will be limited even if he plays. Few teams are more physical than the Volunteers. They can impede the smooth Cyclones from scoring. The Vols easily covered in their first two NCAA Tournament outings and enter this matchup with momentum. Points could be hard to come by, which makes the spread appealing.
Auburn has not come close to covering two hefty spreads in the NIT. While this number is lower than the earlier pair, it still flirts with double digits. Nevada has been as impressive as the Tigers with a couple of double-digit wins. Auburn has been hurt by the absence of big man KeShawn Murphy, who opted out of the tourney. The Tigers play substandard defense, and the modest crowds at the two games do not provide the edge to which they are accustomed.
Both teams operate on the slow slide offensively, but that hasn't prevented a decent amount of points scored in their games. Dayton's averaged 144, Illinois State's 143. In the NIT, while the slower-paced Redbirds opened with a 137-point game, it followed with a 153. Meantime, the Flyers' two outings wound up with 144 and 143. The Redbirds piled up 78 points last weekend at Wake Forest, so scoring on the road appears to be no concern.
We must take a deep breath when alloting double digits in a second-tier postseason tournament game. Yet there are several reasons for comfort in doing so. New Mexico has rung up wins of 24 and 25 points in the NIT with sizable, enthusiastic crowds. The Lobos are awarded a third home game, and the atmosphere favors them. The elements could work against St. Joseph's, playing at high elevation in its third straight NIT roadie. The Hawks have spent more than a week out west, far away from home. They spent considerable energy rallying from a deep deficit to nip California on Sunday. New Mexico stands 16-3 straight-up at home, with the majority of wins by 10-plus points. Another one is there for the taking.
