Buy it down to 103.5 like I did. That's what the three game at OKC in the finals landed at (103). Pacers road games in the playoffs are averaging 109 int the first half ... and OKC home games are averaging 109. Expect a torrid pace from the Thunder who play at the fastest tempo in NBA in playoffs at home in playoffs. They shoot 41% from 3 in the first half at home and just 26% on the road in that half. True shooting % of 59%. We should see their best here from the jump after another disaster on the road in Game 6.

We've ridden this prevailing trend the entire postseason and aren't stopping now. OKC is winning the first half in the finals by 14.7 points. They had a ridiculous first half net rating of +30.8 at home for the playoffs. Of their 12 home games, they have led 11 by at least 8 points at the half. They are winning the first half in playoffs by an average score of 62-47. Pacers have a _4.8 net rating on road in first half in playoffs and have been slow starters away from home throughout and can't score 45 in the first half at OKC.

My favorite play here is alt line over 112.5 (-150). Maybe you don't need it, but I have been skewing that way in these markets all postseason with ample success. Both games in IND soared over this; Pacers play faster and shoot more at home and OKC can follow. Pure desperation from the Pacers should bring more early points. These games tend to settle down after the half. The Pacers averaging 62/first half at home and OKC's first half defensive rating on the road in the playoffs has been below average. OKC averages 59/first half on the road despite only making 3.5 threes. This number is right at the average of OKC on the road and IND at home, but this is no ordinary game.

The Pacers had their shot in Game 4. They will regret that for a long time. OKC getting that road win - and finally covering away from home too - gives me great confidence they can do it again now. OKC going back to its original starting lineup has balanced out their scoring and the Haliburton injury situation is a legit concern for me. Indy's bench can't keep playing Superman role.

The Thunder have played 11 games at home and they have led 10 of them at the half by 8 points or more. We are not getting off this play now. OKC's defense is ridiculous in the first half at home and they average 62 points in those halves. Their first half home playoff net rating of +31.3 is ridiculous. the Pacers have a first half road +/- of -3.9. They couldn't get past 45 first-half points in the first 2 games at OKC. Their turnovers soar early in games on the road and its going to be nuts in the Thunderdome for Game 5.

The Pacers have proven they can play with these guys and especially at home. IND is a bear at home in the first half - their 120.9 offensive rating at home in the playoffs in that half is identical to OKC's. OKC has just a -9.2 net rating on road in first half with major defensive issues allowing 60/half. IND is a +16.1 at home in that spot! IND +8.1 in first half at home in the playoffs and OKC -4.8 on the road. Expect another faster start from Indiana. I took this up to +5.5 in alt markets to make it two possessions in 24 mins to beat me. IND ML in the first half probably worth a sprinkle.

Both teams had the fast start I expected in Game 3. But OKC only took 79 shots and just 22 attempted threes. The pace slowed in the second half. I don't anticipate that again. The Pacers will be looking to run, OKC will adjust to being back on the road and wont give away 20 possessions with turnovers. Scoring soared for Game 2 after both teams got a taste of OKC crowd and I project it again for the second game in IND. OKC not nearly as sharp defensively on the road and know they'll likely need at least 120 points in Game 4.

Thunder games are averaging 113 per first half on the road in playoffs ... and Pacers are averaging 113 at home. Pacers play are frenetic pace at home, more than most, and they won't have as slow of the starts they did in OKC. The PG has to get it going, right? OKC allowing 59/first half on the road and IND won't be held below 50 in the first half again. I love this over 109.5 in alt markets just in case Halliburton is actually hurt and the scoring still slips some. Both these teams can score and score quickly. IND has a +16.9 net rating at home in first half in playoffs; can't forget how significant that's been this postseason.

OKC is battle tested and after going the distance with the Nuggets I expect to see an A road game from them here. They have built up massive late leads in both games in this series and the Thunder can exhale a bit after getting their first finals win. Too much SGA and too many scoring options among the starters and on the bench. The Pacers' PG has been all out of sorts and was better on the road than at home for the postseason on the whole. OKC still hasn't played its best game.

The Thunder slowed down and tried to bleed the clock in the final 5 minutes of Game 1. That won't happen again. They average 122/G in the playoffs at home. This is desperation time which means 48 minutes of high-pace hoops. OKC went 3/17 in the paint (non restricted) in Game 1 after a long layoff. They average 19 PIP in the playoffs. Also show just 29% from catch and shoot spots in Game 1 for 21 points; they average 34/G in C&S spots. Positive regression to the mean is coming here and a return to their normal lineup with real size will help with offensive rebounding and more second-chance shots.

You pay a premium for playing the first half for good reason. OKC has won the first half by 8 points or more in 9 of 10 home playoff games. The Thunder have a ridiculous 30.5 net rating int he first half at home in postseason (nearly twice as good as any other team). They are +15.2 in first half at home in the playoffs and the Pacers are slow starters, -2.3 on road. Maybe OKC blows another big lead but with their season on the line I project them to win the first half by 12 or more. We keep riding this bet.

Long layoffs didn't cause problems for the Thunder before when it came to fast starts - led by 10 at the half of game 1 vs DEN and led by 32 at half of Game 1 vs MEM. They have a ridiculous +31.7 net rating at home in first half of playoff games, playing at fastest pace in playoffs with the best D rating as well. An AST/TO ratio just under 3 with a 60.1 TS%. Another level than what the Pacers have seen in the East. OKC is +15.6 in first half at home and IND have been slower starters on the road at -1.1 in first half. The Pacers have made second-half runs but this should be a shock to their system.

I expect much of this series to be played in the 230s. The Pacers are not going to score enough in a half court to win these games and they have to run. OKC loves to run. OKC has been far mor proficient offensively at home in playoffs, with a 121.8 offensive rating, averaging 123.3/G. Pacers offense far more efficient on the road in playoffs, averaging 116.4/G. Defensive adjustments will be made as series progresses. Thunder are over in 5 of last 7. Pacers are over in 10 of last 14 on the road. IND have some defensive warts.

Jalen Brunson and KAT have been good all series long and I certainly expect a major bounceback from the Pacers starters after a Game 5 letdown. IND has forgot to run and push the tempo twice in this series and it bit them both times. I expect a far greater intention to get to the rim here. This is the lowest total of the series thus far. The Pacers are averaging 117/G in playoffs and Knicks 110. Pacers rarely have two poor shooting outings in a row. Expect a faster start here as well with the crowd behind them in a possible knockout game.

We get the best of the Pacers here, who got a good look at the Knicks cross switching and defensive adjustments and will get back to running at Jalen Brunson and KAT and we will get a far more aggressive version of the IND backcourt. Pacers are 5-2 a home in playoffs and one of those losses came when they stopped pushing pace vs NYK with a big lead. I don't see that happening again.