I'm doing it. I've picked the Thunder all along and I still think they'll pull this game out, but not by this many points. I'm pretty much all in on Indiana. If you're not by this point, that's on you.

Williams crushed this number in Games 3-5 as the Thunder discovered the Pacers have little in the way of help defense or a rim protector once he gets past the first defender. He had 16 in the first half of Game 6 and would have hit this milestone easily had the game remained competitive. Williams' drives result in high-percentage looks that should be somewhat immune from any potential Game 7 nerves. We're taking this prop and also playing Williams at +400 (Caesars) to be the game's leading scorer.

NBA Finals Game 7 tonight with both teams covering three games apiece. This is exactly what NBA executives wanted to see happen. I think the refs will call this one like it is and just look for a great Game 7, no edge. And to me, that opens the window for Indiana to win. Game 6 was a precursor to what's going to happen tonight. Oklahoma City sleepwalked through the second and third quarters in Game 6, and that showed a lot about them. They were exposed. They shot 42% from the field and turned the ball over 21 times. Who feels the pressure more? Indiana to win.

Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren has only had two quarters of effective offense in the entire NBA Finals. Game two’s first quarter he put in nine points and game three’s first quarter he put in thirteen points. Outside of that he has been held in check and has shot below twenty seven percent in consecutive games. With offense expected to be limited in the deciding game seven, look for Holmgren to get some putback and alley oop opportunities to get his offense going. Play his points over.

Tyrese Haliburton continues to play through his calf injury, but he could still be limited for Game 7. When he suffered the injury in Game 5, T.J. McConnell stepped up to score 18 points over 22 minutes off the bench. In Game 6, McConnell scored 12 points over 24 minutes. He has scored at least 10 points in four of the six games against the Thunder. In the other two games, he had eight and nine points. The Pacers will likely ask for more from him again in Game 7, leaving him with a favorable opportunity to hit this over.

Jalen Williams scored 16 points in Game 6, all of which came in the first half. He was limited to 27 minutes because of the lopsided score, which broke his streak of three straight games in which he scored at least 26 points. During the regular season, Williams shot 50.4% from the field at home, compared to 46.4% on the road. In what should be a close game, look for Williams to bounce back and hit this over.

The public reacted rather quickly to the original 8.5 spread posted for Game 7, almost immediately betting it down to 7.5. This despite a couple of playoff trends suggesting otherwise, such as the venerable NBA "zig zag" which is +25 in this postseason, and already 4-1 in this series. OKC has also won SU after each of its six previous losses in these playoffs. Still, the Pacers have proven themselves, too, in these playoffs, already winning ten times outright as an underdog, and various options are at Rick Carlisle's disposal. The Thunder need SGA to shake off his poor effort from Game 6, but can they get Jalen Williams back on course after he posted a -40 in Game 6? We'll see. Play Pacers

It's worth wondering if the masses have overreacted a bit much to the Game 6 scoreline by posting Sunday's total roughly seven points lower than any previous game in the Finals. OKC was out of sorts on Thursday, with an uncharacteristic 21 turnovers, and it wasn't until garbage time with deep reserves that the Thunder's normally-reliable offense functioned with any consistency. Earlier in the series, games that landed under (one-three-four) all at times seemed to be pacing over before late-game slowdowns. Game Six was also the first time in the series that either landed beneath 100 in the Finals, and both had been trending over most of the postseason. There's enough established firepower both ways to suggest this scoreline handily clears 214.5. Play Pacers-Thunder Over

Buy it down to 103.5 like I did. That's what the three game at OKC in the finals landed at (103). Pacers road games in the playoffs are averaging 109 int the first half ... and OKC home games are averaging 109. Expect a torrid pace from the Thunder who play at the fastest tempo in NBA in playoffs at home in playoffs. They shoot 41% from 3 in the first half at home and just 26% on the road in that half. True shooting % of 59%. We should see their best here from the jump after another disaster on the road in Game 6.

We've ridden this prevailing trend the entire postseason and aren't stopping now. OKC is winning the first half in the finals by 14.7 points. They had a ridiculous first half net rating of +30.8 at home for the playoffs. Of their 12 home games, they have led 11 by at least 8 points at the half. They are winning the first half in playoffs by an average score of 62-47. Pacers have a _4.8 net rating on road in first half in playoffs and have been slow starters away from home throughout and can't score 45 in the first half at OKC.

We hit on his under in Game 3 because the line was 47.5 but now that the line has adjusted down this much due to 4 straight unders (36, 38, 43 and 27 PRA), we will jump on this over. This season, SGA has averaged 44.5 at home (+2.5 more than on the road) and his over 43.5 rate is 56.6% (+22% higher than on the road). He is projected for 46.1 PRA off of 33.6 points (o32.5 -112), 5.7 rebounds (o4.5 -146) and 6.8 assists (o5.5 -148)... slight value across the board. SGA has averaged nearly 40 min per game prior to sitting the 4th quarter of the Game 6 blowout and he went over this line 20-12 when playing 38+ minutes this season.

The model has virtually the same projection for Indiana as their 102.5 to 103.5 team total, so the value we have on OKC vs the spread is entirely based on OKC going over their team total (projected score OKC 117, IND 103). The road/home splits offensively for the Thunder were significant during the regular season (OKC averaged +6 more at home and shot +3% better from 3pt range) but they have gotten ridiculously pronounced in the playoffs with OKC averaging 122 at home (vs just 107 on the road) and shooting 38% from 3pt range at home (vs 30% on the road). We have over 100 regular season and playoff games 'proving' OKC is a great bet to go over this total at home.

Before that horrific performance in Game 6, the model favored OKC by -17.5 at home vs IND, but that stinker took them down 3 full points. But even with 'just' an OKC -14.5 projection the Thunder are a good value to cover. The Thunder showed their youth in Game 6 and played as poorly as they can possibly play shooting under 10% from 3pt range most of the game and turning it over more than 2x what they forced from Indiana. OKC should be able to flip the turnover margin and 3pt shooting script at home in Game 7 the same way they did vs Denver.

Last play of the NBA season. Been pretty, pretty good (Larry David) profit-wise. Didn't start great but about after the AS break, did decent. I'm a TJ McConnell fan. Might be because he reminds me of me -- slow white dude with not huge talent, can't jump over a piece of Dunder Mifflin letter stock but plays hard and can shoot. And McConnell has obliterated this number in back-to-back games as perhaps Indiana's best player in both of them. Maybe Rick Carlisle found some weird matchup that works. See you around Oct. 21 for next season. (I'm sure I pick an exhibition game or two beforehand to get ready.)