Prime time road chalk! What could go wrong?!!? Honestly, the only thing that could go wrong here is Ben Johnson magically manufacturing 17+ points for this Chicago offense with either a banged up Tyler Bagent or a 38-year-old Case Keenum. I don't think the Eagles are anything remotely close to a juggernaut on offense, but defensively they're elite. The Eagles really, really should score 21 points at bare minimum here against a Bears defense that can't stop anyone without hefty wind and rain conditions in play. So to cover this, in my mind, the Bears need to score 17 points. I think Ben Johnson is a genius but without Caleb Williams I don't see that happening so we back the Eagles.

This is a big number but two things make me love The King in this matchup. One, we have a weird field scenario in Brazil where we don't know how it will affect these two offenses. Two, we have a huge total. So the expectation for points is there. Maybe the field is a problem and the points don't come. But the total speaks to the defenses in play here and what they'll give up scoring wise. As such, I think there's a good chance after not letting Henry run in the second half last week we see the Ravens lean heavy on him here and he rips off a couple big runs to cruise past this. Definitely a ladder situation.

If the Chargers upset the Bills -- or give the Bills a game -- I won't be entirely surprised. It's a classic "they suck the Bills are awesome, we just have to take the Bills" situation. But if the Chargers are in the mix here, it's because they get better on offense, not better on defense. Which means the Bills will also have to throw the ball quite frequently. The Chargers defense gave up multiple deep balls to the Raiders and you can paint shades of Tre Tucker with Josh Palmer, particularly the way he's been involved this year down the field. At this price I am very interested.

In a pass-heavy gamscript against the Bears in Week 1, the Bryce Young targeted his running backs five times. In an *extremely* non-pass-heavy gamescript in Week 2 against the Falcons, Bryce Young targeted his running backs three times. The Browns can limit the run a bit and gave up seven catches to Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell last week. Now the Panthers don't have Jonathan Brooks, so Chubb is going to see a ton of reps and should mess around with five targets. I think he can catch three.

I think the Lions will "comfortably" win this game and by "comfortably" I mean "get up big early at home after a loss with a ton of rest, cook on offense for the whole first half and let Geno Smith and a surprisingly competent Jets offense storm through the back door in the second half." Frank Reich is a good coach! He had one bad year in Charlotte and he's elevating the key skill position guys. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson look like new men this year and I expect big games from both of them this week as they finagle a cover against a good Lions team that lacks any firepower on the back end of its defense.

This price dipped a lot closer to the weekend and, yes, I continue to pound the Jets on anytime touchdown scorer props. But that's because they have two studs who score, the offense is heavily condensed to some key players and Breece has been a monster this year. He should be more like -135 to me in this matchup against a Lions team that is more than willing to give up points and is heavily favored. Even in passing scripts Breece will get plenty of work and the high-value carries.

If you read anything I write, you are probably sick of me hyping up Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown every week. But we're hitting on a 50 percent clip now and I really think the Chiefs know Worthy is key to their season and will use this chance in Miami to scheme up some specific plays for the former first-round pick. He remains undervalued because of Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce but he's going to be a big factor for Kansas City this year so we'll keep buying low.

I've been a huge fan of Dexter Lawrence since high school (shoutout Wake Forest!) and it's between him and Julius Peppers for best North Carolina high school prospect ever. But even I didn't imagine the impact he could have on this Bengals defense. He's a difference maker. Normally, Steelers in a home divisional game catching more than three points is an auto bet because of how these AFC North games play out. But the Bengals found their groove on offense last week and I do believe what my eyes are telling me about the Steelers offense: it's not very good. Dex will destroy the interior, Rodgers will be pressured and the Bengals are able to score 25+ points leaving the Steelers in the dust.

The Seahawks remain surprisingly underrated by the market. We have the defending champions, with an elite defense, a decent run game, a reigning OPOY on absolute fire going against a backup quarterback behind an offensive line that got thinner last week. The Seahawks could legitimately be laying double digits here. Don't sleep on two other factors in this game: 1) the Commanders and their home crowd being completely demoralized by the loss of Jayden Daniels to a dislocated left elbow for the second-straight year and 2) the possibility of Sam Darnold coming back for this game. If Darnold returns, the flat touchdown will look like good value.

This number continues to dip on the injury news coming out Wednesday afternoon and maybe the most significant news is Tua being healthy along with Michael Penix. That gives the Falcons a backup option if injury occurs and should invigorate their offense significantly. The Packers are banged up, aren't great on defense and get a desperate Atlanta team whose season is far from over if they win this game. This could end up closing closer to three the way things are moving so we will happily gobble up the last of the 5.5's remaining.

We're double dipping on London here, as we've also got his over with receiving yards. I'm perfectly fine with both: the Packers defense hasn't been scary this year at all and while the Falcons haven't been in the red zone once this year, they get a massive upgrade at quarterback in Michael Penix. That should bode well for a dangerous red-zone threat in London.

The Falcons have been a disaster this season, almost entirely a result of the quarterback situation. In terms of fantasy production, I'm not sure anyone's been worse than Drake London, who was taken as a second-round pick and has been non-existent with Cooper Rush and Jack Strand under center. It'll take a leap of faith for backers here, but it's important to remember with Michael Penix under center, London's target share skyrockets. Penix might not be an elite QB but he's fighting for his job and his future and he's a massive upgrade. London should eat Thursday night.

Grabbing this before it possibly moves across the key number of seven, although I presume there will be buy back there if it does. The Giants look much improved after one week, but they're still in a different weight class from the Rams, who people are sour on after the Australia debacle. We're getting a little discount as a result here and I think the Rams take care of business in NYC, coming in a little ticked off about the embarrassment of Week 1 Down Under.

We're going to eat some chalk here on the Rams and Davante Adams. He's -125ish across the market so it's not an insane price and McVay will want to make his star wide receiver happy. Plus, this isn't really pricing this as if Puka Nakua isn't playing -- I'd think Adams would close closer to -140 once we know that Puka is out. And even if Puka plays, it's fine, because Adams is such a lethal goal line weapon. There's no way they can keep him off the field around the goal line again after the disaster in Australia.

I don't really understand this price? Isaiah Likely scored twice last week, is clearly a breakout candidate this season without having to share targets at the tight end position, he's got a coaching staff that loves to draw up plays for him, a quarterback who trusts him and there's a decent chance the Giants are throwing a lot in the second half and Likely is coming off an eight-target, eight-catch game. I guess the argument is the spread and the team total, but the Giants are expected to score close to three touchdowns. I'll happily take almost 3-1 on this.