Iowa is coming off a thrilling, last-second victory over Michigan but some of the same concerns reared its ugly head that could spell doom vs Ohio State. Firstly, the passing game of the Wolverines gave the Hawkeyes fits. Now when you insert an excellent passer and elite WR to the mix, you can see the Buckeyes having their way with this secondary.
After eying totals, team totals and quarter/half spreads, the most correct pick for this pivotal Big Ten showdown seems to be the most obvious. While Kinnick Stadium can be a house of horrors for some, this Ohio State team is well-stocked to avoid some of those disasters that lead to road losses at Iowa. The Hawkeyes defense gave up 429 yards of offense to Michigan, and Ohio State is objectively an upgrade in terms of the challenge to limit their production. While special teams or turnovers are lurking around every corn-filled corner, the connection between Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith can stave off an upset alert.
Neither the Ohio State or Iowa defenses have played as well this season as we typically expect. Ohio State's defense ranks 85th nationally in pressure rate. Iowa just got picked apart by a Michigan passing offense that had struggled all year. It won't be a shootout, but it'll be higher-scoring than you expect.
Ohio State plays its first Big Ten road game of the season at Iowa City on Saturday. The Buckeyes first road game didn't go so well at Texas, losing 24-23. The last time the Buckeyes were in Iowa City was 2017, and Iowa won 55-24 as 21-point underdogs. The spread is only 14.5 right now. Kinnick Stadium is going to be rocking starting Friday night, all the way through Saturday morning into kickoff and throughout the game. The Hawkeyes have won seven straight and four straight this season, and a win against Ohio State sets up unlimited possibilities for the season. I think Iowa will play a tough game with a chance of winning outright.
I was a little greedy on this one. Instead of grabbing 13.5 early, I waited to see if money would come in on the home dog. I'm going to hit Ohio State now at -14. This is an awful matchup for Iowa. They can stay with teams like Michigan because the Wolverines don't score. Plus, Iowa did Iowa and returned a kick for a TD. Michigan racked up 429 total yards, including 153 on the ground. If the Buckeyes can run the football on Saturday, it's game over. I just can't see the Hawkeyes scoring much here, and I like the fact that Ohio State has already lost a game. I think this one could get ugly. Lay it with the Buckeyes.
The Hawkeyes playing at home against ranked opponents has been a winning ATS formula. Iowa covered in defeats to sixth-rated Oregon and 11th-rated Indiana last season. Its last ATS setback to a visitor in the top 25 came four years ago. Overall, the Hawkeyes have failed to cover once in the past seven outings when spotted points. The defense is yielding an FBS-low eight points per game. The Buckeyes are potent, but they will find scoring more difficult than usual.
GameDay is at Iowa for the first time in 20 years while CBS has the game, and it's one of the Hawkeyes' biggest matchups in that time even though they have played many. Win here/super-close loss and Iowa is looking good for its first playoff. Iowa City is such a tough place to visit, and that great defense can keep Jeremiah Smith in check. Wish I had grabbed when 14.5 was briefly available as I don't see a more than two-TD home loss in the Nuts' first visit to Kinnick in nine years. That will be such a fun atmosphere and a rare time in my life I could say "wish I was in Iowa for a day." The model has OSU by 12.
