Texas Tech has won and covered seven straight meetings with Houston, including last year’s 35-11 win, and I like them Friday night. I really like Houston’s 5th-year senior quarterback Connor Weigman. I remember him at Texas A&M, but the strength of this Houston offense is their running game so far in the season, and that's also the strength of Texas Tech, which only allows 65 yards per game rushing. Texas Tech has last year's backup at QB, junior Will Hammond, learning on the job, and he’s doing quite well. Texas Tech to win.
I said before the season that I liked this Houston team and have a +850 playoff ticket. Coming off a 10-win season and returned 12 starts, including QB Conner Weigman. The Oregon State opener was not as close as the score looked as Weigman through a pick in the end zone and the Cougars extended a late drive with a 4th-down offsides. However, Texas Tech's game vs. the same Oregon State team last week was close. In fact, the Beavers outgained them by 120 yards. The Red Raiders also looked awful the week before against Abilene Christian.
The Fightin' Cody Campbells haven't exactly looked like the world beaters they were expected to be so far this season in wins over overmatched Abilene Christian (33-10) and Oregon State (35-24). And now both Will Hammond and Thomas Castellanos are seeing snaps at quarterback, which tells me the staff is not happy with the play at the position. On Thursday, the level of competition steps up with Houston (2-0), which entered the 2026 season with much more continuity on both side of the ball than the Red Raiders. Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman has been in big games before. Houston should make this a competitive game, and I don't hate a money line sprinkle either.
I'm too afraid to take the Coogs straight up, but I like them catching this many touchdowns. Texas Tech looks far more vulnerable than the Tech of last season, and Houston has improved along the offensive line. Also, Houston has been great in close games under Willie Fritz, and Tech simply hasn't played many in a while.
Last season the Cougars were entering this game undefeated at 4-0 and ended up getting spanked 35-11 at home. Now, they are much better on offense and they're facing a Texas Tech squad coming off of a sloppy victory against Oregon State. To me, last week was the wake up call for the Red Raiders and this point spread also is showing a tip of the cap to Houston's improvement.
Houston’s offensive efficiency makes me believe the Cougars will keep it within a touchdown. The Cougars rank 27th in PPA/play, 22nd in success rate, and 18th on third downs, while generating 0.41 PPA/pass. It's early, but I haven't been impressed with Tech's defense. They rank 91st in PPA/play allowed, 73rd against the pass, and 135th in explosiveness. Their offense has been fine, but far from dominant, ranking 43rd in PPA/play and 69th in success rate. Houston's run defense looks improved and should make Tech have to beat them through the air. An upset could be brewing.
