Jake's Picks (3 Live)
Jake's Past Picks
Seattle has the pitching edge in this matchup with Luis Castillo on the mound. While the Mariners lost his last start, they had won the previous three with him pitching. Castillo has a strong 3.13 ERA at home since last season, compared to a 4.67 ERA on the road. The Yankees are just 3-5 in Will Warren's starts and may be looking ahead to getting back home from the west coast and facing the Mets in the Subway Series. With the Mariners at home and holding the pitching advantage, our model would price them as -115 favorites, making -102 a solid play.
The Brewers are looking to avoid a sweep after being shut out in the first two games of the series. While backing a rookie like Logan Henderson can be risky, he impressed in his MLB debut and has a 5-1 record in the minors this season. The Guardians' SP Gavin Williams has been solid at home this year but really struggled last season when pitching at home (0-8 SU and ATS). This is likely a big reason for the model leaning towards Milwaukee avoiding the sweep. We give Milwaukee a slight edge (51%) to win, and at +104, there is solid value on an upset play here.
Erick Fedde is coming off a complete game shutout in his last start and has only allowed 3 HRs all season, but whenever you can get Schwarber at this price with the way he's been swinging the bat, you have to consider playing it. Schwarber is tied for the MLB lead with 14 home runs and is currently riding a 45-game on-base streak. While Schwarber has historically crushed right-handed pitching, he's actually been more effective against lefties since last season. This may explain the slightly generous odds. Schwarber is also 3-for-7 with a home run in his career against Fedde. Our model sets the line at +330, making +425 a strong value play.
The Royals have been red-hot, winning 17 of their last 21 games, but 10 of those 17 wins during that streak came at home. On the road, they're just 9-11 to start the season. Kris Bubic has been excellent in his last two starts (14 scoreless innings), but he gave up four earned runs in five innings the last time he faced Houston. Framber Valdez, despite a 1-2 home record this season, remains a strong play at home where the Astros went 11-5. We set the line at around -160 for the Astros to win today.
Juan Soto is 3-for-8 in his career against Mitch Keller, though he has yet to take him deep. Despite Soto's stronger numbers against left-handed pitching, seven of his eight home runs this season have come against right-handers. He's heating up in May with a 1.067 OPS after a sluggish April (.704 OPS). While Keller has been stingy with home runs this year, left-handed hitters are batting .318 against him and have accounted for all three of the homers he's allowed. Given these trends, there's value in Soto at +425, especially since we set the line closer to +380.
Jonathan Aranda may not be a household name, but he's been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball this season, ranking fourth in batting average among qualified hitters. He's also had great success against Jose Berrios, going 4-for-8 with two home runs. Berrios has surrendered 93 home runs since 2022—more than any other pitcher in the majors. With Aranda's track record against Berrios and the latter's home run issues, the +500 line offers strong value compared to a our line of +350.
Despite a rough season at the plate (.186 average), Luis Robert is in a favorable matchup against lefty Andrew Abbott. Robert has an .863 OPS against left-handed pitching this year, compared to just .534 against righties. Abbott has allowed 39 of his 44 career home runs to right-handed hitters, who also post an OPS nearly 200 points better than lefties do against him. With this platoon advantage and Abbott's vulnerability, Robert's +400 odds are enticing, especially since we set the line for Robert to homer below +300 (+295).
The Reds are in a prime bounce-back spot at home with Andrew Abbott on the mound. Abbott hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts and performs better at home, where the Reds are 9-5 in his outings since last season. The White Sox, meanwhile, are just 1-6 in games started by Jonathan Cannon and 0-4 in his road starts. While the Reds have struggled recently (2-8 in their last 10), they're still competitive at 20-22 and face a White Sox team that's just 3-17 on the road. The current line undervalues Cincinnati, which we would set closer to -250.
Cal Raleigh is due for a breakout after going homerless in his last eight games after hitting 12 in his first 31. He's still seeing the ball well, evidenced by a high walk rate over the past week. Raleigh thrives against right-handed pitching, boasting a 1.008 OPS compared to just .721 against lefties. He'll face Clarke Schmidt, who has been vulnerable to left-handed bats this season, allowing a .318 average and 1.052 OPS. We project a fair line of +315, so there's solid value at +340.
The Mariners are looking to bounce back after a surprising sweep at home by the Blue Jays. Prior to that, they were 12-6 at home. Despite Emerson Hancock not putting up gaudy numbers the Mariners have been good when he pitches, winning 7 of his last 8 starts. The Yankees have been just okay on the road, going 10-9 straight up and 8-11 against the spread. Our simulations show the Mariners covering the spread about 65% of the time, suggesting the line should be closer to -180. At -134, this is a strong value play.
Seattle's home games have shifted from an under trend last year to an over trend this season, going 12-7 to the over. This is largely due to the absence of top pitchers like George Kirby. Mariners games overall are 24-13 to the over, while Yankees road games are averaging nearly 10 runs. While Clarke Schmidt has typically been an under pitcher, he has been dealing with injuries and 2 of his last 3 starts have totaled 10+ runs scored. We project 9.3 total runs in this game, with the over hitting or pushing in 60% of simulations.
Kyle Tucker has a strong history against Cal Quantrill, going 3-for-4 with a home run. While the wind is slightly blowing in, it's not enough to significantly suppress offense, as reflected by a neutral home run index of 5 out of 10. Tucker's power and past success against Quantrill make this a worthwhile play. We set the fair line at +400, so +475 offers good upside.