This play represents value, considering the line is as high as -150 in other sportsbooks. Our model sets the line at 7.1 assists for Giannis, and he has had 7 or more assists in 7 of his last 10 games. Additionally, Giannis hit this number in both home games against the Pacers this season. While the line probably would be 7.5 if Dame Lillard was out, Giannis has been racking up assists with a high volume in recent games, making this a solid bet.

Hayden Wesneski has recorded 5+ strikeouts in 3 of his 4 starts this season, and we like the value in this play at+110. The Royals are coming off a doubleheader yesterday, and we expect some fatigue to set in aka “doubleheader hangover." Our model sets his line at 5.4 Ks, so we see good value in this play at plus money.

Ben Rice missed a start after being hit on the elbow, but it seems to have had little effect on him as he immediately hit a HR after returning to the lineup. With a 1.148 OPS vs. RHPs this season, Rice has been producing great numbers, and his 4 HRs in just 10 games at Yankee Stadium make this play stand out as well. Jose Berrios has been giving up home runs, with 6 in 5 starts this season and a total of 31 HRs allowed last year. Given Rice's hard-hit percentage of 64.2%, which leads all of MLB, we see value in the +475 line, while our model sets the line at +410 for Rice to hit a home run.

We have this play as fair value, setting his line at +380 to hit a HR. Anthony Santander has a great opportunity to do some damage today despite a poor career showing against Carrasco, going 0-7. However, several of those at-bats came in 2018 when Carrasco was a different pitcher than he is now. Santander is currently in a bit of a slump over his last three games, but a soft-throwing righty and a short porch at the stadium could be the perfect combination to get him back on track. Most of Santander's power numbers come from hitting left-handed against righties, and he has already hit both of his home runs this season from the left side against right-handed pitchers.

Mark Vientos has been streaky to start the season but has managed to hit 2 home runs in his last 5 games. Jake Irvin, despite allowing only 12 earned runs this season, has been prone to giving up home runs, with 6 allowed so far this season and 29 last year. Vientos is 0-9 in his career against Irvin, but he has made solid contact, with just 1 strikeout in those 9 at-bats. The wind is blowing out, and the weather is warm, creating a favorable environment for home runs. The game is ranked an 8 out of 10 on the home run index, so if Vientos connects, we expect it to carry. We set the line at +395 for him to hit a HR.

Jonathan Aranda is finally getting his shot in the Rays’ lineup after bouncing back and forth between AAA and ML. He’s making the most of it, slashing .404/.456/.788 with 4 home runs in just 52 ABs vs RHPs this season. He gets Brandon Pfaadt today, who has been solid overall but has shown some HR vulnerability—giving up 4 homers in his last 15 hits allowed. With the game in Arizona’s HR-friendly park and our line for Aranda closer to +370, this +450 price is a solid price for Aranda today.

Chris Bassitt has been excellent on the mound for Toronto, but his offense has let him down—failing to score more than 3 runs in any of his starts. He’s getting the Mets’ 2018-2019 Jacob DeGrom treatment when DeGrom’s record was barely over .500 despite winning two Cy Youngs because he got no run support. I expect regression from Bassitt who had a 1.46 WHIP last year and at 36 years old isn’t getting younger. Houston’s Ronel Blanco has been just okay, but this pick is more about backing an Astros team that performs better at home against a Jays team that struggled on the road last season. With value on our side at -108, this moneyline play makes sense.

Wrigley Field weather isn’t expected to be a major factor today, and recent trends support the under: 6 of the last 7 Dodgers games and 5 of the last 7 Cubs games have ended with 8 or fewer runs. Shota Imanaga has been excellent outside of one tough start and held the Dodgers in check in Japan earlier this season. Dustin May has a 1.06 ERA through 17 IP and is benefiting from extra rest due to the Dodgers’ six-man rotation. Our model gives the under a 55% chance of hitting.

This is the ultimate buy-low opportunity for Kyle Kuzma after he posted a goose egg across the board in Game 1 — 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, and no notable stats to speak of. Kuzma has averaged 7.8 combined rebounds and assists per game with Milwaukee this season, so this line is set more than two full R+A below his season average. Following what was arguably the worst game of his career, expect Kuzma to come out aggressive and engaged. Our model projects him at 7 combined rebounds and assists, giving us value at this number.

Cal Raleigh is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, tied for the league lead with 9 homers—7 of which have come in his last 9 games. While most of his power has come against righties, his solid .825 OPS against lefties this year makes him less vulnerable to late-inning matchups. Our model gives Raleigh the best HR probability today (+268 implied), making this +330 line appealing. He faces Brayan Bello, who is just coming off the IL and may not be fully sharp. Raleigh is in a strong spot to go deep again.

This is great value on a stolen base prop. Elly De La Cruz has swiped a bag in 3 of his last 6 games, and he faces Edward Cabrera—a prime SB target who’s allowed 26 stolen bases since the start of last season. Our line is +125 which is one of the lowest I’ve seen over the past few seasons. The market is sitting in the +130 to +140 range, so the +180 at BetRivers stands out as a clear value. This is a great spot for Elly to swipe a base.

Overs have been a goldmine in Miami, with a 64-26 record since the start of last season. Today’s matchup looks like another great spot. Both starting pitchers (Nick Martinez and Edward Cabrera) are coming off rough outings, and both offenses are hot. Miami has scored 10, 7, and 6 runs in its last three games, while Cincinnati has posted 7, 8, 5, 25, and 3 in its last five. Our model projects 10.2 total runs and a 65% hit rate for the over, making this a strong play.

Jose Ramirez is showing signs of heating up after launching a home run in yesterday’s game against the Yankees—his first in 16 games. With that kind of momentum and a juicy +560 price on FanDuel (compared to mid-400s elsewhere), this is great value. Ramirez historically thrives against the Yankees, with 12 homers and a .968 OPS in 61 career games. He gets a favorable matchup today against rookie Will Warren, who lasted just 1.2 innings in his MLB debut. This is a prime spot for Ramirez to stay hot.

This one might catch some by surprise, but Mike Yastrzemski offers fantastic value tonight. Our model has him priced at +420, while FanDuel is offering +600. He’s slashing .348 with a 1.082 OPS against right-handed pitching this season and has been even better at home, sporting a 1.324 OPS in a five-game sample. Though Quinn Priester has looked good so far for the Brewers, we expect regression from the former Pirate who struggled in his first two MLB seasons.

Ausar Thompson recorded 16 points + rebounds in Game 1 and his athleticism is one of the advantages that Detroit has this series. He’s cashed this line in 9 of his last 12 games (9-3), and he has notably better splits on the road, hitting this number 53% of the time compared to just 44% at home. We have him projected for 17 points + rebounds tonight.