Gonzaga makes their 9th straight Sweet 16 appearance. The Boilermakers won the first meeting by 10-points early in the season. Purdue may have some regression after their 106-point outburst against the Aggies, but they’ve been consistent on both ends of the court all season. The Bulldogs are playing better team basketball this time of year, but it feels like Purdue has something to prove last losing to a 16 seed last season. The Bulldogs have also struggled facing above average defenses and this Purdue defense is playing at an elite level.

If Purdue can match its second round performance (106-67 win over Utah State), they will win this game comfortably. That said, Gonzaga is a better team than Utah State, and the Bulldogs are playing their best basketball of the season at the right time. Gonzaga coach Mark Few is one of the best in the business, and with plenty of time to prepare for Purdue's Zach Edey-led attack, I expect the Zags to keep this one close. I'm going to take the points here.

Gonzaga shot 53.3 percent in blowing away Kansas after shooting 51.7 percent in destroying McNeese. The Zags will find the going tougher against Purdue, which ranks 15th nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom). The Boilermakers also have better depth, which could prove pivotal if Zach Edey gets a couple Zags into foul trouble. With Purdue leading the nation in 3-point percentage (40.9 percent), look for the Boilermakers to pull away late and cover.

Few teams were as impressive as Purdue over the opening weekend, and what the performances — wins of 28 and 39 points — highlighted the surrounding parts that make the Boilermakers a more well-rounded title contender than a year ago. The guards are older, the transfer additions have hit and the team fits well around Edey structurally on both offense and defense. Gonzaga has been playing like a different team since March 1, but Purdue has been playing a higher level all season and that will be on display on Friday night.

Pressure is mounting for Purdue as the round of 16 hits but they face a Gonzaga team they beat in the last two seasons on the road. In fact, they beat Gonzaga soundly. We've got Purdue shooting 49% on the season and we've got Gonzaga shooting 51% which is number two in the nation. Gonzaga scores 85 points a game, Purdue averages E3 points a game. Purdue was a much better team this year than Gonzaga. Purdue shoots 40.9% from three-point range. Purdue has the team to do it and go far. Purdue to cover

Why Gonzaga? 1. Mark Few 2. The Boilermakers have all the pressure and just played their A+ game v Utah State 3. Purdue doesn’t blow out good teams. When the tourney started, every time Purdue has played an NCAA tourney team in 2024, they have either lost, gone to OT or won by single digits. Take the points.

This will be a home game for Purdue with a rabid fanbase that travels (see last weekend) and a location 4 hours from campus if you drive like I do (or drive like jehu - shoutout to the ones that know). Boilers basically got last weekend off, exercised their early-round demons and cheered on their deep bench guys. Gonzaga's bigs have their hands full (they tap out at 6-10), this is Eddy's tourney and Purdue finally has the outshooting and guard play to compliment the big man. I get major UVA atonement vibes off this Purdue squad and I like this under 6.

I love both of these teams, but the number is too big on the neutral court with time to prepare. I make Purdue a -2 favorite and like betting into this number at +4.5, as I think there is a lot of variance in Purdue the rest of the way depending on how Zach Edey is able to stay out of foul trouble. I think it will be difficult for him against Graham Ike and a disciplined Gonzaga team. Take the points.