There’s no doubt that the 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL, and it’s great for San Francisco that Nick Bosa is back in the fold. But let’s not forget that T.J. Watt is back for the Steelers, an immensely well-coached team with Kenny Pickett growing in confidence this offseason entering his second year as a starter with a better run game helping him offensively. I expect San Fran’s defense to take a half step back with coordinator and personnel changes, and in what I anticipate being a low-scoring game, taking the points with the home team against a West Coast opponent makes a lot of sense.

The 49ers are easily one of the top 2 teams in the NFC and I'm not going to overthink this pick against an allegedly emerging Steelers team. The Steelers are solid all around, but they are not in the class of the 49ers. Yes, Brock Purdy does worry me a bit, but I'm fully confident that Kyle Shanahan will give him plenty of opportunities to find his elite pass catchers in space.

Although the Steelers should be improved, the 49ers are coming off a run to the NFC championship game and could easily be headed toward another. This line is a shade just too light.

Must I even explain? Fully expect a rather conservative gameplan for the Niners with QB Brock Purdy having missed so much time this offseason rehabbing from surgery and against a stellar defense. McCaffrey could get 25+ touches between rushing and receiving. Including playoffs, he has scored a TD in nine straight games.

With Nick Bosa back, the 49ers defense should hold the marginal Pittsburgh offense in check. Meanwhile, San Francisco's offense still has some questions. If either team finishes with 17 or fewer points, the Under should hit.

Pittsburgh is an average football team. San Francisco is loaded. The 49ers now have Nick Bosa in the fold and they should roll.

The 49ers' offensive line is going to be weaker this year, at least starting out, and that will be an issue in Pittsburgh. The Steelers went 8-2 with T.J. Watt in the lineup last season; he's fully healthy. Brock Purdy only faced one elite front four (Dallas) last year and the 49ers scored 19 points. Pittsburgh's first-team offense scored touchdowns on all five of its preseason possessions. The Steelers won't be that efficient Sunday, but they should cover if not win outright.

The 49ers get back Nick Bosa in some fashion after his extension Wednesday, but George Kittle is nursing a groin injury and was among the many 49ers players limited to begin the week. We'll see how Brock Purdy's elbow holds up to a full game of action, and if he can even settle in the pocket with a great Pittsburgh pass rush attacking a 49ers OL that lost Mike McGlinchey this offseason. With the hook available at multiple books, I like the Under here.

Nick Bosa is worth nearly two full points to the spread in my simulations, which brings this line to -3.5 for me despite the road matchup against another solid defensive team. I have questions about the 49ers' offense, but the combination of the skill position players and the defensive strength should be enough to win a competitive, low-scoring game. I'm laying the -2 road chalk here.

Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a career season where he eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time, in addition to posting a very respectable 1.71 yards per route run, both of which led the team. Aiyuk averaged 59 receiving yards per game and logged close to a 100% route participation with Brock Purdy under center. George Kittle has yet to practice this week and if he is unable to suit up that could funnel additional targets to Aiyuk. Either way I feel this number is closer to Aiyuk's floor and the 4th year WR is poised for a big season.

Wow, Nick Bosa signed today so he will presumably play, but what kind of football shape is he in after a 43-day holdout? SF also is breaking in a new DC. Star TE George Kittle is in question. QB Brock Purdy barely threw the ball this offseason recovering from injury. I try not to get too excited about the preseason -- see Cade McNown (McNo!!!) -- but Pittsburgh looked fantastic. The Steelers were 8-2 when T.J. Watt played last season and 1-6 when he did not. Watt is healthy now. I believe the Steelers win outright (yes, even with Bosa although my confidence level dropped a little) but I'll not turn down points and this is dropping so why not waiting.

The 49ers are considered one of the best teams in football, but they suffered more losses in the offseason than I think most people realize. The offensive line could be an issue after Mike McGlinchey's departure, and we know the Steelers have an elite pass rush. The San Francisco defense lost its DC and plenty of depth, and while Nick Bosa is back, he likely won't see his usual workload just days after reporting. Then you have Brock Purdy, who looked fine in limited preseason work but now has to do it over four quarters. It all lines up for an underrated Steelers team to get a surprise win in Week 1.