B365/MGM. I will fall on my sword if we get tanked into a loss here, but Tyrone Tracy is running really well for the Giants, and this should serve as a quality spot for the running back. He’s cleared this line in four of the last five games, and should be set up for success against a below average rush defense (18th in FTN’s DVOA) that probably isn’t trying. Again, both teams will probably manage this game unconventionally, but I think Tracy is less likely to be kept off the field, given how the Giants are bubble-wrapping Jaxson Dart. Play it to over 62.5 (but again, proceed with caution).

I just posted the model's favorite plays for today in my Discord sub-room, and it has Ashton Jeanty as the No. 2 most likely RB to score at 84% behind only Christian McCaffrey at 85% -- but also priced an unplayable -240. This is extremely good value on the surface anyways. Not that I trust the Raiders offense all that much. But hence the price. I'm sure it's also baked in that Vegas might just flat-out tank in the second half. So yeah we need an early one.

The Raiders have seemingly packed it in by shutting down Maxx Crosby, so this is a good spot for Dart to gain confidence heading into the offseason. The Raiders have already surrendered this many passing yards in all but two games, and before last week's dud, Dart had been held under 190 yards in just one of his starts. In an indoor environment and with concerns about him rushing and taking unnecessary hits, I expect he'll sit back in a clean pocket and pick apart this Raiders defense.

This is a hideous late season matchup between teams potentially tanking for the #1 pick. Both the Giants & Raiders will be without their starting left tackle, safety, and tight end. The Raiders O-line has been awful, but the Giants are also in big trouble without Andrew Thomas. Betting on the Raiders without Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers is a scary prospect, but they showed some life last week against an elite Texans defense. Ashton Jeanty could be in for another big game against New York’s league-worst run defense. I’m also betting on Pete Carroll to out-coach Mike Kafka. I like the Raiders to keep their momentum going from last week. Pete Carroll isn’t a tanker, and will have his guys playing hard.

Rarely do we see teams on dueling nine-game losing streaks, with the likely top pick in the draft to the loser. Still, as long as first-stringers are playing, don't expect anyone to take it easy...after all, it's the livelihood for these players. Though Maxx Crosby is out for the defense, and now Brock Bowers out for the offense, the Raiders looked better last week at Houston, especially as OC Greg Olson looks like he has figured out how to best use Ashton Jeanty, including as a receiver, and getting him isolated on DBs who can't bring him down without help. Meanwhile, Jaxson Dart's progress stalled about a month ago for the G-Men, and would simply rather count on Geno Smith. Play Raiders

Brock Bowers is out, and wideout Jack Bech (back) is questionable. Backup running back Raheem Mostert (ankle/knee) also is questionable. That sets up Ashton Jeanty for a big workload, both as a rusher and receiver. Jeanty has cleared this prop total in four of his last six games, including last week when he caught a 60-yard touchdown at Houston.

This is the game that will likely decide the No. 1 overall pick, and the Raiders are pulling out all the stops to get it by shutting down Maxx Crosby against his will. That's the type of decision that can have a ripple effect in the locker room, and I don't know that we'll see great effort from a Raiders team that has had a problem with effort at times this year. With Brock Bowers on IR, this is set up to be a game where the Giants do everything they can to defend Ashton Jeanty as Jaxson Dart builds confidence on the offensive side of the ball heading into the offseason. Mike Kafka has every reason to go all-out to win this game.

This game apparently means a lot to Las Vegas, but not in the normal fashion. The Raiders are going to great lengths to close in on the first overall draft pick next April with a defeat. DE Maxx Crosby, their premier player, likely would solider through a knee injury but is being held out. Crosby's absence is a relief to scrambling rookie QB Jaxson Dart. Crosby joins Vegas' second most impactful player, TE Brock Bowers, and S Jeremy Chinn in spectator mode. Without Bowers, the Raiders' offense could be begging for scraps after an improved showing by New York's D last Sunday (16 points permitted).

There's a battle for last place brewing in Vegas on Sunday, but my guess is that they'll be more 'give up' on the Giants side. That's good news for Ashton Jeanty going up against a very poor rush defense. With the exception of last week, Jeanty has looked very rough, but the reality is that the Raiders schedule versus the run has been absolutely awful for the last couple of months. That changes dramatically this week. It's notable that the Raiders may be getting some reinforcements back on the offensive line, but either way, I think Jeanty gets over this number against NYG.

The Raiders surprised me with an extremely competitive effort in Houston. Geno Smith returned from injury and put up a 107.3 passer rating against the league's top defense. Ashton Jeanty had a breakout game, and now gets to face the NFL's worst run defense. New York gives up 5.5 yards per carry. The Raiders also are expected to activate left tackle Kolton Miller, who is coming back from a high ankle sprain. The Giants just put up 13 net passing yards in losing at home to Minnesota, which had to finish the game with Max Brosmer at quarterback. Look for the Giants to fall to 0-9 on the road.