Concern when it comes to the Bengals lays entirely on their defense which was trending toward being arguably the worst in NFL history a few weeks ago. It has been able to somewhat right the ship over the last month, and now Cincinnati goes against an Arizona team that is 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS since the start of November with five losses by a TD or more in that span. The Cardinals are injured defensively while the Bengals are all systems go on offense behind Joe Burrow. This is a serious number to lay with an awful defense, but considering it’s a home game and Cincy may wind up taking a three-score lead, it should be safe enough to see through.

Burrow looked back to his old self in carving up the Dolphins last week, and this should be more of the same with the Cardinals defense injured and playing poorly. Arizona's one interception against the Falcons was the first by the team since Week 12, and now Budda Baker and Garrett Williams are both out, with three other DBs questionable. I'll put my trust in Burrow as a big favorite on the spread to protect the ball.

Despite being eliminated from the playoffs, Joe Burrow is still putting up numbers as he gets back to “having fun playing football.” I’m betting he’ll do just that against a vulnerable Cardinals defense. Arizona’s entire starting secondary is banged up with ‘questionable’ tags, and will be without their leader FS Budda Baker. Burrow has thrown for 260+ yards in 3/4 games since returning, and went for 300+ last week. I like him to end the season strong with a couple more big games.

I took McBride to go over his receptions line, and I’m doubling down by taking his yards prop too. The Bengals have allowed a league-high 1,362 yards to opposing tight ends, the worst mark in the NFL by a wide margin. McBride is only over this mark in 6 games this season, but has been far more productive with Jacoby Brissett as his QB. He’s over this receiving yards line in 5 of his last 7 games, and is on pace to break records this season. He should have a monster game against a very bad Cincy defense.

Simple breakdown for this play- Trey McBride needs 8 receptions to break the NFL record for most catches in a season by a TE, and I’m betting on it to happen in this game. The Bengals have been atrocious against opposing TEs all season long. The game total is set at 53.5, so expect plenty of offense. McBride has 7 games this season with 10+ targets. Jacoby Brissett should be feeding McBride all game long, and looking to help him set the record.

We are getting slightly plus money for ATD for Trey McBride, who leads all tight ends by a very wide margin of redzone targets, with 31 redzone targets. McBride is also tied for the 3rd most touchdowns by a wide receiver or tight end (10) this season. And we are still getting plus money? Oh, and the Bengals give up the most touchdowns in the NFL to the tight end position. This is a great matchup for McBride to find the endzone again on Sunday.

I often talk about getting cheap pieces in potential shootouts and this is a textbook definition of that in a game that projects to be extremely high scoring. Marvin Harrison Jr. returned to the lineup after a multi week absence and posted a healthy first read target rate, in addition 61% route participation. We’re likely to see his role grow this week and the Bengals are an A+ matchup as they rank in the bottom of nearly every defensive passing metric. We’ve seen Arizona opt to go pass heavy and with the Cardinals checking in as 7 point underdogs here, they might not have a choice. This is a great ladder opportunity as well.

This prop failed me last week, but I don't mind going back to it this week in a pretty solid matchup. The Bengals are a bad defense as we all know, but they're particularly bad against the pass and allow plenty of opposing QB TD production. While TD passes are admittedly riddled with variance, I think the game script and offensive gameplan dictate that Brissett will likely throw in the red zone area. In a game projected for 50+ points and in an undedog role, I like Brissett to return to his 2+ TD stat line (like he had in three outings prior to last week).

Arizona has lost seven straight and just lost two more key players to injury, defensive lineman Walter Nolen III and cornerback Garrett Williams. The Cardinals rank 25th in pass efficiency defense and should get carved up by Joe Burrow. Over the past two weeks, Cincy has allowed zero sacks and one QB hit. Look for the Bengals to put up 30-plus and win by double digits.