Bryce Young has struggled in his short career against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with an 0-4 record. If the Panthers have any shot at ending that, they need to get Bryce Young out of the predictable passing offense we tend to see at times with Carolina. Tampa Bay has shown their vulnerability with their pass defense all season long, and rookie Tet McMillan I expect to break out in a big way. I would not be shocked if he is a top five to eight receiver on the week, and may even surpass his total yards of the last three games which is 103 yards.

Evans and Mayfield immediately got their rhythm back in Evans’ first game back from injury, going for 100+ receiving yards. This week, I like Evans to score against a vulnerable Carolina secondary. The Panthers have given up TDs to opposing WR1s in 4 of their last 5 games. Evans & Mayfield have connected for a score in more than half of the games they’ve played together in their careers, so getting nice plus odds on an Evans TD almost always feels worth a sprinkle.

Mayfield soared over this passing yards total last game for the first time in 5 games. The Bucs WR room is finally healthy, and Tampa is just a different team with Mike Evans on the field. Mayfield’s numbers fell off a cliff without him. The Panthers rank 24th in defensive pass DVOA, and Mayfield needs to put this Bucs team on his back in this crucial divisional clash for first place. I expect Tampa Bay to get back to their explosive ways. Mayfield throws for 250+ today.

It didn't seem like we had much of a race in the NFC South...but now, we do! Though we continued to think the Bucs were the team to beat in the division, we're not so sure now after watching Tampa Bay drop five of its last six. injuries along the OL have scaled back the ground game that was more effective earlier this season and a season ago. Without a reliable infantry diversion, Baker Mayfield has been less effective. Meanwhile, the Panthers are kicking themselves for losing twice to the Saints, but they also beat the Rams at home and have pulled out their last six wins in one-score game, as Bryce Young & Co have fared well in close decisions. Play Panthers

B365 at +115. Tre’Von Moehrig has only cleared this line in six of thirteen games this season, but this should be a solid opportunity to rack up the tackles. In nine of the last ten Bucs games, an opposing box safety has cleared this line - and Moehrig spends more than 50% of his snaps around the line of scrimmage. He’s the Panthers leading tackler on pass plays, and third best against the run - so he should be involved no matter the gamescript. And I do believe this game should see a close split in time of possession, at the worst. I’d bet this up to -135.

FanDuel. Jalen Coker has come on strong for the Panthers, clearing this line in three of the last four games, including 60 and 74 yards the last two weeks. With Tet McMillan not playing at 100%, Coker has lead the Panthers in targets each of the last two weeks. Despite a lower volume passing attack typically. The Panthers should struggle to run against the Bucs rush defense with ranks 3rd in EPA per attempt (per FTN). The Bucs defense has struggled against the slot of late, and I like Coker to capitalize. I’d bet this up to 41.5 yards.

The winner of this NFC South clash will claim first place in the division. Simply put, I’m backing the better team here. I’ll put my trust in Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense over Bryce Young’s Panthers. Carolina’s offense has thrived behind Rico Dowdle and the run game, but his efficiency is way down over the past few weeks. The Bucs finally have a healthy WR room, and should exploit a Panthers secondary that ranks bottom-10 in pass defense DVOA.

Mike Evans came back last Thursday night in a big way after being out since October. He had a 38% first-read target share in his first game back and caught six passes for 132 yards. In a key divisional battle that is a must-win, expect Evans' routes and target share to continue to rise on Sunday. The Panthers deploy a high rate of Cover 3, and Evans feasts vs. Cover 3 defense. I love attacking this line for Evans, and I'll likely ladder Evans up to 100+ receiving yards.

This looks like a good spot to back Baker Mayfield and Tampa’s passing offense. The Bucs pass catchers are as healthy as they’ve been all season and with Cade Otton set to rejoin the lineup along with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and Jalen McMillan. This looks like a very strong group in what would certainly qualify as a plus matchup against a Carolina defense that hasn’t been good, particularly recently as they rank 21st in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in success rate since Week 10. Coming off a couple bad losses, in what is now a must win game with massive stakes, Tampa needs to make a big statement.

Carolina's Rico Dowdle has seven total touchdowns this season, one shy of earning a $250K bonus for an eighth. You don't think his coaches and teammates know that and want to get it ASAP? Dowdle isn't making a bundle this year on a one-year deal. I will share in the Discord room at some point an excellent CBS Sports research document showing all relevant contract incentives that could be hit in Week 16. The Bucs have allowed 16 rushing TDs, among the most in the NFL.

The Bucs offense is as healthy as its been all season, leading to a quality game against the Falcons last week. Of course, the defense did enough to lose the game once again, and that unit continues to struggle with offenses that can throw the ball effectively. Bryce Young proved he can do that at home in the upset of the Rams two weeks ago, so I expect the Panthers to have success on offense. The Carolina defense has played better since getting destroyed by the Bills, and the Panthers are healthy on both sides of the ball. I like them to win this game and I'll definitely take the full field goal.