Players that continue to be borderline on their over/unders can be difficult to tab the breakout game. For the Saints their success has been tied to keeping the offense simple for rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. Even in a favorable matchup against the New York Jets, I expect the big pass play connections to be minimal. Fade Juwan Johnson who has had a receiving yardage dip in three straight games.

Upfront: It is risky to go Under at this number when one of the defenses -- we're talking to you, Jets -- has allowed more points (41 ppg) in the past two outings larger than this number. Supportive factors overshadow that concern. The Jets, looking to the future, send out QB Brady Cook for his third start. His sorry stat line from them includes five interceptions against one TD pass. The Saints average a mere 16.1 ppg and, while the offense has picked up lately under rookie QB Tyler Slough, it remains pedestrian and will be without three playmakers. Their mini-surge is mostly about defense. New York changed its D-coordinator this week, so better things loom on that side of the ball.

The Saints are down their top three RBs for this matchup, but they should still be able to run the ball against a poor Jets defense in a matchup where they're favored by nearly a touchdown. Audric Estime is expected to start, but I see Hull mixing in enough to get over his total. Estime saw more snaps last week but only by a 25-22 margin, and it's unlikely Kellen Moore is going to lean on Estime like a workhorse here. I wouldn't be surprised if Hull gets 8+ rush attempts in this game.

FanDuel. Adonai Mitchell has become the number one target for the depleted Jets receiving corps. With at least six targets in each game as a Jet, he’s cleared this receiving yards line in three of his last four games. Coming off a solid 58-yard showing with quarterback Brady Cook, I like Mitchell to continue to produce against the Saints. I’d bet this up to over 43.5 yards.

Three of the Saints' top five players in targets drawn won't be on the field Sunday (Rashid Shaheed, Devaugh Vele, Alvin Kamara). That leaves Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson to soak up most of the targets in an appetizing matchup. Olave has 78 targets in seven home games. He should feast on a Jets defense that just gave up 330 passing yards in Jacksonville.

The New Orleans Saints have suddenly become one of the more appealing teams ATS this week. They have covered in four out of their last five games, and won consecutive games for the first time this season. Shifting from an underdog to a favorite is certainly worthy against a Jets team that has lost four of five games by double digits. Yet, this number has jumped to much from the original market number. Take the Jets.

Shough is over this rushing yards mark in 4 of his last 5 games, and has been taking off frequently. Shough had 6+ rush attempts in each of those games, and now faces a Jets defense that is allowing over 21 QB scramble yards per game. Shough had 32 rushing yards last week, and I think he continues to use his legs against the Jets.

Tyler Shough is coming off his best performance of his career where he led the Saints to an impressive victory against a motivated Panthers team en route to 24/32 for 272 yards. When Shough has struggled it has been when facing a strong pass rush, however fortunately for him the Jets have a weak pass rush combined with poor coverage. The Saints are also going to be without Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal. This matchup sets up very nicely for the Saints passing offense and I expect Tyler Shough to be effective.

When the Saints get anywhere near the end zone, Tyler Shough looks for Chris Olave. New Orleans' No. 1 receiver has scored three times in the past five games and now faces a Jets defense that just gave up five touchdown passes in Jacksonville. I love the payout on Olave to score and would play this down to +160.