Beyond the Broncos being undefeated at home and the elevation being difficult, Denver's defensive front should be all over Trevor Lawrence on Sunday. This will be his toughest test of the season right when Jacksonville is feeling itself the most. Whereas the Jaguars have mostly beaten up bad teams, the Broncos can win games in a variety of ways behind Bo Nix. The added hook is tough to stomach as Denver has played so many mind-boggling close games this year, but this should be a TD game by the time the final whistle sounds. Wait until kickoff and take this at -3.

Really feels like the books truly disrespect the Broncos weekly. I would say that fortune seems to be smiling on them in every close game -- like the Bears, to be honest -- and that's usually not super-sustainable. Jacksonville seems to be peaking. I do wish it would be snowing and freezing cold in Denver for a Florida team in town, but the Jags own maybe one quality away win (San Francisco). The Broncos could clinch the AFC West and conference's top seed with a win and some other results going their way. I might have worried in past years about them looking ahead a bit to a Christmas game in Kansas City, but the Chiefs are no longer relevant this year.

The Jaguars continue to impress in their first year under Liam Coen, and can play the Broncos close in this matchup. Denver just keeps walking the tightrope and winning close games with clutch play, and some fortunate calls/bounces of the ball. The Broncos are on an 11-game win streak, which feels daunting to bet against. However, teams on 11+ game win streaks are 14-36-2 ATS since 1990! The Broncos beat the Commanders, Chiefs, Raiders, Texans, Giants & Jets all by 3 points or less. Jacksonville’s Top-5 run defense can force Bo Nix to beat their zone coverage-heavy scheme. Nix has been impressive, but he got away with a few dropped interceptions last week. The Jags are live to win this game outright.

Two of the hottest teams in the league square off in Denver, where the Broncos have one of the best home-field advantages in football. They're undefeated at home this year, and the offense has clicked since the bye. The Jaguars have gotten to play some easy opponents on the road and really only shined in Tennessee, going to overtime against bad Raiders and Cardinals teams. I have the Broncos as clearly better and I give them three for home field, so I have no problem laying the hook here.

Sean Payton lets nothing slip thru the cracks, noting this week that the Jags' cornerbacks create extra problems because of their "ball skills." Payton went on to clarify, noting that "their cornerbacks can catch the ball, which a lot of corners in this league don't do very well. It creates more risk to throw their way." Though a basic observation, it was put succinctly, and Payton's ability to do just that is one reason the Broncos have won 11 straight. Payton also took time to note the Jags "are doing a lot of things really well," especially Trevor Lawrence, off of his 5 TDP last week, though he'll have perhaps his toughest test of the season vs. Denver's voracious pass rush. Play Broncos

Initially I leaned toward the Broncos, who have yet to lose a home game. But this spread has gone too far. Jacksonville's offense has been completely different since Jakobi Meyers arrived, Brenton Strange returned and Brian Thomas Jr. got healthy. The Jags have won and covered five straight and are capable of getting the backdoor cover even if they fall down 10.

B365/MGM/Caesars. Coming off a big time performance against the Packers, I’m looking for Courtland Sutton to find similar success against the Jaguars. Sutton has cleared this line in 10 of his last 14 games, and Bo Nix has been peppering him with targets of late: 34 over the last four contests. The matchup is sound, as the Jaguars allow the third most receiving yards per game to outside pass catchers (122.3) at the highest target rate (46.1%; data per FantasyPoints). In an important game for playoff seeding, I expect Nix to continue to lean on his leading receiver. I’d bet this up to over 61.5 yards.

Travis Etienne has performed well for the Jaguars, however like much of his career he’s been inconsistent. Etienne has been held in check by every rush defense that ranks in the top 10 in EPA and has failed to crack 60+ yards. This bodes poorly for him considering Denver’s defense ranks 11th in EPA allowed per rush, in addition to ranking 6th in Success Rate. Etienne has just one game in his last where he’s rushed for over 4.0 YPC as well.