I’m a little late to the party here, but I’ve gotta get in on an Eagles TD prop. The Commanders defense has surrendered TD’s to opposing RBs in 5 straight weeks. Barkley has scored in back-to-back games, and this Eagles offense gets another soft matchup. I expect Barkley to keep his momentum rolling and punch one in today.

This is a huge step up in competition for both teams compared to their Week 15 opponents, but while the Eagles have Super Bowl aspirations and a chance to clinch the NFC East, the Commanders are simply trying to get through the season without further injury. The question is which team is more likely to replicate last week’s performance: Philadelphia against Washington’s horrid defense or the hosts against the visitors’ top-tier unit? Just don’t see how Marcus Mariota – even with Terry McLaurin playing – has enough to topple the Eagles, which should be able to stick to their ground game and win soundly.

Dallas Goedert already has nine touchdowns on the season, and I think he adds to it today. The Washington defense gives up the 3rd most touchdowns to the tight end position (9) and is 31st in touchdown rate to tight ends at 9.3%. Look for Goedert to find the endzone again today at a great price.

B365/MGM. Deebo Samuel is under this long reception line in five of seven games he’s suited up alongside Terry McLaurin (with one over in heartbreaking overtime fashion, as I know all too well). He’ll have a brutal matchup against the Eagles secondary - mainly Cooper DeJean in the slot (Deebo has a 71% slot alignment rate over the last three weeks, since Terry McLaurin’s return). I’d bet this line down to under 17.5.

What we saw last week from the Eagles can't just be chalked up to playing the Raiders. We saw them be able to operate with balance, taking what the defense was giving them. On the other side of the ball, I expect this Eagles defense to feast off of a Commanders offensive attack that lacks any true threat at the skill positions, putting QB Marcus Mariota in a bind all game long.

I made this number 4.5 in favor of the Eagles. It opened as low as 5.5 in some shops and is currently up to 7. At popular sportsbooks Draftkings and BetMGM, the Eagles are one of the very most popular bets of the week as far as ticket count. Now we have a home underdog getting a full touchdown in a division game against a team that has been averaging less than 19 points per game over the last six weeks - and if you remove last week's 31-0 blanking of the Raiders, the Eagles are only averaging 16 points over the previous five games. Their weakness on defense is stopping the run and that is what Washington does best. Commanders may win this outright.

Terry McLaurin has been a far more efficient player with Marcus Mariota. While the Commanders would love to lean on their run game, they'll need to throw to keep up with Philly. And McLaurin has the best matchup of any Washington receiver. Weather won't be a factor. Look for McLaurin to soak up targets and clear this relatively modest number.

The Eagles can wrap up the division Saturday night, and all it will take is beating a Commanders team with an awful defense and a beat-up offense. Marcus Mariota is a serviceable fill-in at QB, but with Zach Ertz done, the Washington receivers will have to win their battles against Philly's pair of excellent sophomore CBs. Mariota also won't have Laremy Tunsil at left tackle, and that's a major loss against Philly's edge rushing talent. As long as the Eagles offense shows up again this week like it did against the Raiders, they should win by at least a touchdown.

The Eagles didn't need to throw to beat the Raiders, and A.J. Brown ended up with two catches for 41 yards and a score. In the previous four games, Brown drew 46 targets and cleared 100 receiving yards three times. This is a dynamite matchup for Brown as the Commanders play Cover 3 and Cover 1 more than half the time. Look for Washington's offense, led by strong backup Marcus Mariota, to do a lot more than the Raiders and force Philly to be more aggressive.

The Eagles finally got back on track against the Raiders, and this is another good matchup for their offense. The Washington defense has allowed 3+ TDs in every game played stateside since Week 6, and giving up 21 points and 384 yards to the Giants last week represents one of their best outings in that stretch. We're used to seeing Hurts' ATD prop at much shorter odds in this type of matchup, and even if Lane Johnson isn't able to make it back this week, I think he shouldn't be plus odds to score against a defense that gives up loads of points.