It has been 1,800+ days since Philip Rivers played. He’s 44. Rivers is a fun story, but what is going to happen when he gets hit by one of the NFL's most ferocious defenses? It doesn’t matter how tough he is; he’s been sitting on the couch, not active and preparing. Perhaps if Rivers had been through a training camp, a case could be made, but he’s had one week of practice. Jonathan Taylor may break a run. Indianapolis may step up defensively. Seattle should win this going away. Its defense has allowed nine combined points in two games with four wins of 14+ over the last six weeks. The Colts haven’t beaten a winning team since Oct. 19. Plus, Sauce Gardner is still out.

The Colts would love to get ahead early and keep Jonathan Taylor as the focal point of their offense, but at some point Philip Rivers is going to have to throw some passes. I expect his primary weapon to be Warren, who has been a key weapon for Indy most of the year but disappeared a bit the last two weeks, though one was against a tough Houston defense and the other featured a QB in Riley Leonard just trying to keep his head above water. The Seahawks allow the second most yards per game to tight ends, so this is a great matchup for Warren to shine.

This will be a fascinating game with Philip Rivers on the field for the first time in five years, and the market certainly expects the Seahawks to run away with it. If that's the case, there's a good chance the ball is taken out of Darnold's hands. In the five of his 13 starts where he's been over this attempts number, two were losses and two saw the Seahawks tied or behind at the half. Conversely, in the two recent games where the Seahawks were also double digit favorites, Darnold had 26 pass attempts in each. I think that's around where he finishes again in this one.

The Seattle Seahawks continue to win in blowout fashion. A concern in the prop market are weak opponents taking away the need to move the football in second halves. Sam Darnold’s last three home starts he is averaging just 173 yards passing. Take the under on Barner’s receiving yards.

The Colts might cover but, with Philip Rivers poised to start at QB despite carrying more rust than an antique car garaged for decades, it's hard to envision Indy scoring much. They probably will overwork RB Jonathan Taylor, yet he has tailed off the past three weeks after an MVP-like performance for the season's first half. The Seahawks have yielded just nine points in the latest two games. Indy's defense has been dreadful of late. However, if Taylor's carries keep the clock moving, Seattle might not find enough snaps to score a lot.

I'm smashing everything under on Indy this week. Hey, if Philip Rivers can get up off his baby-making couch and light up a terrific defense on the road, I am completely fine losing this. I just can't believe that is a possibility short of some backdoor nonsense. And yes, an offshore book has a prop on Over Rivers' longest completion yardage vs. number of kids (10.5). Also an O/U of how many will be there: 4.5. Not sure how that is graded (major max limit) but I still love it.

DraftKings. This is a line I’d have considered betting even if Daniel Jones was starting. Michael Pittman Jr. has failed to clear this line in seven of 13 games, and the matchup is brutal. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest receiving yards to outside pass catchers, at the lowest yards per reception (10.31) and yards per route run (1.36). Pittman runs 71% of his routes out wide, and when he does venture into the slot, his average depth of target is only 5.4 yards. And oh yeah, the Colts are starting 44-year old Philip Rivers, whose arm strength was below average back in 2020. I have Pittman’s long reception projected around 14 yards. I’d bet this down to under 15.5.

There's a QB change coming for the Colts. It will either be Riley Leonard (threw to Michael Pittman on 35.7% of his throws last week) or Philip Rivers (threw at Pittman 46 times in their final nine games together when Pittman was a rookie in 2020). Either passer should find Pittman as a suitable short-area target against a tough Seahawks pass defense. Here's the pattern: Jonathan Taylor has had under 21 carries in 8 games this year, and Pittman has caught at least five passes in all eight. If you think the Colts will play with the lead, don't bother taking this prop, but given the correlation and the expected game script, not to mention the odds, this is a risk worth taking.