The Texans are being bet up after a 10-point win over the Chiefs, but this is less about Houston’s run of success and more about Arizona. It appears as if the Cardinals have been fighting all season with close losses, but that’s been against poor teams. They have lost by double digits to the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks -- all since the start of November and all games in which they were healthier than they are Sunday. Teams do not necessarily need to have a letdown after a big win. Perhaps the Texans’ offense does not deserve a spread this large, but its defense (which has more interceptions than passing TDs allowed) does. Turnovers will create short fields and more scoring opportunities.

Houston wins a lot, to be sure, but not by hefty margins. The biggest during its current five-game streak is 10. With RB Nick Chubb scratched, the Texans could lack the offensive oomph to cover a double-digit spread. As for Arizona's offense, it has barely missed a beat with Jacoby Brissett filling in for Kyler Murray. The prob is on defense. If the Cardinals can shore it up, an encouraging trend will continue. They are 5-1 ATS on the road.

Sometimes we get a bit gun-shy when all of the trends seem to point in one direction. On the other hand, the eye test is always best. So maybe we shouldn't be afraid to buck the Cards, who are 0-5 SU (1-4 vs. the line) since the move to Jacoby Brissett at QB became official after the Nov. 3 win over Dallas. Arizona has also allowed 40+ points three times in the last five. For the Texans, they haven't lost since the same weekend Arizona last won (Nov. 2-3), and the five-game win streak has seen CJ Stroud return to active duty and the defense continue to excel. Allowing only 16 ppg, Houston looks like a blockade in front of the Big Red. Play Texans

Arizona has been very competitive outside of its division, but there's a reason this spread is rising. The Cardinals have ruled out eight players, including left tackle Paris Johnson, left guard Evan Brown, wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., strong safety Jalen Thompson and corner Max Melton. The Texans' elite defense, which is better at home, just held the Bills, Colts and Chiefs to a total of 35 points. Look for a 24-10 type of game and lay the points.

The Texans have a five-game winning streak going as they're hot at the right time, and the Cardinals have lost five straight, which is why we have a -9.5 point spread in this game. The win streak is led by their No. 1-ranked defense that allows only 266 yards per game. They're No. 3 against the run and No. 3 against the pass. The Cardinals have been held together by Band-Aids all season, and everyone, including the fans, wants the 3-10 season to end. Just think when Houston starts getting their offense together, because they've been very mediocre at best. This might be the week. Texans to cover.

I was surprised to see Houston receiving elite status as a double-digit favorite (This has moved to 10 in many spots). The Texans' offense kept KC in the game last week and it will again here. AZ tends to play very close games and we're getting a bonus here because they were blown out last week by LA. Houston is not the Rams - and they have played 3 extremely high-profile games in a row, beating Buffalo, Indy, and then slaying their dragon, KC last week on the road. This is a big flat spot off of all that and now we're asking them to win by a big margin? I make Houston a 4-6 point favorite. 10 is too many.

Jacoby Brissett has been a garbage time super star and if one were to look his raw passing yards, it would be fair to assume he will once again cruise over this fairly low yardage line. However, garbage time production is fragile, and very difficult to count on as the likelihood increases that Brissett will put up a dud, rather than continue to benefit from circumstances. This week he faces an excellent Texans coverage unit paired with an elite pass rush. Moreover the game has a low total and the Texans don’t typically blow their opponents out. While Brissett has greatly benefitted from garbage time, I think there’s a strong chance this is where the bottom falls out.

The Texans are coming off a huge win in Kansas City, and this is a clear letdown spot against a team they're supposed to dominate. NFC West rivals have beaten up the Cardinals, but Jacoby Brissett hasn't lost any of his other five starts by more than four points despite facing no teams with losing records. Houston's offense hasn't looked that good in recent weeks either, averaging about 20 points in their last four games. The lookahead was Texans -6.5, and they do not deserve this much inflation based on one week of results.