This Bucs defense isn't as stingy against the run as they were earlier in the season and they're down a couple of pieces on defense. I expect the Falcons to control the clock early with Bijan and I'm not expecting a Bucs offensive explosion early as Baker has been off and he's been particularly bad against the blitz. Yes, Baker has his receiver group back, but I'm not certain they'll be operating on all cylinders right away and the offensive line is still down their starting guards. I prefer this 1st half line as I fear the thought of Kirk Cousins playing comeback ball in the 2nd half without his leading receiver. This line is at DK.

The Falcons and Buccaneers looked to be vying for a playoff spot to start the season, but over the last 7 weeks, both have been awful. Welcome to Thursday night's Ugly Bowl on Amazon Sports. The Falcons have lost seven of their last eight, with their only win coming against the Saints. The Buccaneers have lost five of their last seven and haven't covered a spread in their last five games. The Falcons' defense was number one at one point in the season, and now they're 14th. The Falcons are also third in sacks, something they've maintained while losing games. The bottom line to me is that the Buccaneers shouldn't be giving anybody more than five points. I'm on the Falcons to get the cover.

Mayfield is over this rushing yards mark in 7/13 games this season, and may be forced to take off in this matchup. Atlanta’s defense has ranked top-10 in pressure rate all season, and could give a banged up Bucs O-line problems. Mayfield has regressed as a passer since his elite play to start the season, with the 2nd lowest EPA per play among QBs since Week 7. He has dealt with injuries to himself and his WRs, but remains a mentally tough QB who scrambles effectively. The Falcons have a talented secondary, so I envision Mayfield using his legs to pick up some key first downs in this game.

I can see Bijan having a big role in the passing game on Thursday night. Tampa is tough to run against, but will happily (well, not happily but you get the point) concede receiving yards to running backs. James Cook went for 66 yards against them and Zonovan Knight/Michael Carter combined for 80+ in recent weeks. Bijan had 100 (!) receiving yards in Week 1 against a much healthier version of this defense as well. The Falcons aren't dummies and will let Kirk Cousins alleviate pressure by dumping it off to Bijan early and often.

The Falcons are coming off one of their worst losses of the season, but it was also the first time since October they lost by more than three in regulation, and the game was close at halftime before a kickoff return TD. The Bucs have two wins by more than three all year, and the Saints blowout was deceiving with a pick-six and three FG drives under 20 yards. Perhaps the shifting injury landscape makes the Bucs a little bit stronger in this matchup, but with the team at -0.7 yards per play on the year, I think it's tough to make them this much of a favorite unless they're facing a legit bottom-feeder, and Atlanta doesn't qualify with its run prior to last week.

Godwin will be the primary underneath guy for the Bucs in this one. Baker might need to get the ball out quick to avoid contact from a dangerous Falcons defensive front and with Mike Evans (possibly back!) and Emeka Egbuka drawing coverage, Godwin should be open underneath. If there's any kind of need to pass whatsoever, Godwin should get here and it looks like they might be slowly ramping up his snaps, so we're hoping to get something in the range of 72 to 75 percent of the offensive plays for the crafty veteran. He had three in his first game back and five last week, but should have had one more that he dropped in the end zone against New Orleans.

We've seen the expected big increases in Chris Godwin's snap share over the last three weeks as he has been ramped up coming off significant injury. He's now fully back and will likely get even more opportunities in the middle of the field due to Cade Otton potentially being out for this game. The Falcons will send a lot of pressure and blitz packages in Baker Mayfield's direction and I like the idea of Baker finding Godwin in the middle of the field to move the chains.

Baker is all kinds of banged up which would generally lead you to believe he *won't* run in this game. But it's actually the opposite -- see: Justin Herbert on Monday -- as quarterbacks who are hurt are more willing to take off and run to avoid massive shots in the pocket when they can dictate when/how they get contacted out in the open field. This is also a late-season, prime-time game at home (it's not quite must-win, but it's close for the stumbling Bucs) and I'd expect Baker to lay it on the line. Mayfield has cleared this number fairly easily in each of his last four games and I don't see him staying stationary in this matchup.

Both teams come into this short week off ugly losses. I don’t expect this to be a very exciting game. Tampa Bay lost their RG Ben Bredeson to injury, and TE Cade Otton’s status is ‘doubtful.’ The Falcons remain without WR1 Drake London, which really hinders this offense with Kirk Cousins under center. Both defenses take away what the opposing offenses do well. The Bucs are a top-tier run-stuffing unit, while the Falcons secondary limits explosive pass plays. Bucs WRs Mike Evans & Jalen McMillan were activated from the IR this week, but their action may be limited. The field at Raymond James Stadium got torn up in the rain last week, so beware of the turf monster in this one.

FanDuel. While it’s looking like Mike Evans will return, I still like Chris Godwin to reel in four catches. With Evans sliding in on the outside, opposite the struggling Emeka Egbuka, I expect Godwin to assume the majority of the snaps in the slot - and that’s where the Falcons have been burned of late. Atlanta has allowed 22 receptions out of the slot the last three weeks, coinciding with Dee Alford assuming that role in coverage (18 receptions have been in his coverage, per PFF). With Evans back in the fold, Godwin’s 4.7 average depth of target on his seven targets last week is likely to translate over. And with Cade Otton doubtful, I do like Godwin to serve as a security blanket.

The Bucs' leading tackler (Tykee Smith) and third-leading tackler (SirVocea Dennis) did not practice Tuesday. That would only help the receiving matchup for Bijan Robinson, who caught six passes for 100 yards in the season opener vs. Tampa Bay. Drake London (who had 15 targets in the opener) is trending toward missing another game, while Kyle Pitts is playing through a knee injury. The Bucs give up an NFL-high 10.4 yards per pass attempt to players lined up in the backfield, per Fantasy Points Data. After not being a factor in the receiving game last week, Robinson should be targeted heavily in this matchup.