It’s been difficult this season to believe in any teams, but the Seahawks are making that a bit easier. Despite an awful blown cover to the Titans two weeks ago, they have covered 9 of 11 games, their only failures against offenses that could match them. This is a long trip for Seattle, but Atlanta is depleted as a team with little motivation in this game. The Seahawks are getting healthier, and this line has come down a full point from open when it was not playable at -7.5. Defense travels, and Seattle may well eat Kirk Cousins alive.

Atlanta will be without WR1 Drake London again, which could make things difficult for Kirk Cousins against this stingy Seattle secondary. However, I'm mostly playing this under because of Sam Darnold. The Seahawks success has masked Darnold's struggles over the past month (3 TD/5 INT). Atlanta limits explosive plays, and ranks top-five in QB pressure rate. They can make Darnold uncomfortable in the pocket, and double team JSN. The Falcons will also get back their best LB Divine Diablo, which should give them a big tackling and run-stuffing boost. Despite playing indoors, Atlanta are 3-2 to the under at home, and 4-2 to the under when playing as the dog. I see this being a competitive game that stays under the total.

Earlier in the week I gave the Atlanta Falcons an outside chance to pull off an upset Sunday if Drake London was available. With him out I have opposite views. Yes, Sam Darnold has had issues protecting the football in two out of his last three games, but Atlanta is coming off a bad stinging loss to the New York Jets. It’s the type of loss that takes away the fight on a losing season. Although each of their last four losses have been by six points or less, take Seattle to deliver in a big way.

Kenneth Walker has drawn 14 targets over the past five games, while Zach Charbonnet has been targeted twice in that span. Walker has gone Over this receiving total in four of those five games. Against a strong Atlanta pass rush, look for Sam Darnold to find Walker at least twice. I would play this up to 14.5.

The Falcons lose a lot, almost always by narrow margins. This spread is larger than narrow, but consider: Seattle has lost just once outright on the road under coach Mike Macdonald deep into his second season. The Seahawks' lone defeat in the last seven tests was by two points to the fellow Super Bowl contender Los Angeles Rams. Their points differential is a whopping plus-133, best in the league. QB Kirk Cousins relies almost entirely in short throws, all but eschewing downfield attempts, and primary target WR Drake London remains sidelined by an injury. Seattle has cashed ATS in three-fourths of its dozen games. The line ticking down from seven is too alluring to pass up.

DraftKings. There’s a lot to like about this AJ Barner under. The counting stats support it: he’s under this line in 9/12 games, including each of the last six, with an average depth of target of 5.5 yards. Of his 44 targets, only 8 have traveled more than 10 air yards. He’ll face the Falcons, who rank 10th in DVOA against tight-ends (per FTN), and are top four in targets, receptions and yards allowed to the position. Specifically against in-line tight-ends (88% of Barner’s alignment), Atlanta only allows 16.5 receiving yards per game. Barner also sees his target rate drop against both Cover 3 and single high safety coverages - Falcons run both at a top 5 rate.

Understandably so, the Seahawks are seeing the bulk of the action yet it appears the line is headed the other way. I am not crazy about backing the Falcons but notice the recent travel for Seattle. Four of their last 6 games have been on the road and other than a trip to LA, it has been to the other end of the country; DC, Tennessee, and now Atlanta. I believe this line is a bit high based on reputation and the fact that the Seahawks pitched a shutout last week. Atlanta will be ready off a loss. I do believe they could actually catch Seattle sleeping and pull off an outright win. Getting the full 7 or better, I'll take the Falcons.