The Chiefs have been through it this season, and now, Sunday night stands as a potential AFC West elimination game should they lose. Kansas City’s defense is normally much more successful at home, and Houston enters as winners of four straight – all units it has been able to overpower. The Texans defense is immense, but they are playing their second straight on the road, this one outdoors, in the cold in front of a tremendous crowd. With three OL out, the Chiefs will be forced to run and work their quick passing game, which is generally where they thrive. This just feels like a backs-against-the-wall Andy Reid special.

Rashee Rice has been a target hog lately and he has the best matchup among Chiefs’ receivers Sunday night. That’s because he operates a lot out of the slot, where Houston is vulnerable. Look for Patrick Mahomes to rely on Rice against the Texans’ zone-heavy scheme.

Kansas City has beaten Houston in 5 straight meetings, and held C.J Stroud and the Texans offense to fewer than 20 points in their last two. This will be the Texans 2nd straight road game, and they’ll face a tough test in Arrowhead against a desperate KC team. The Chiefs injured O-line is concerning against this vaunted Texans pass rush, but I trust Spagnuolo and the Chiefs defense to give C.J Stroud fits and force mistakes. Chiefs find a way on Sunday night.

Four SU wins in a row and receiving 4-plus points? Sounds like a good deal on Houston. The Texans' defense is supreme for points and yards allowed, while Kansas City's offense, though still formidable, no longer intimidates. Unders are 9-3 in Texans' games, which suggests a low-scoring affair. The line has inched up from 3.5 at many books, leaping the significant margin of four points. Stir in weather that should dip into the low 20s, and a moderate score looms that improves the chances of an underdog covering.

Since the Chiefs bye week, Hunt has 11+ rush attempts in 4 straight games and is over this mark in 3 straight. The Texans have the #1 ranked pass defense DVOA, and have an excellent pass rush. The Chiefs will need to balance their offense, and could look to play conservative with a lead in a game they must have. Isiah Pacheco got just 3 carries last week. Hunt is the lead back, and the goal line back. I like him to go over his rush attempts and rushing yards, but prefer the attempts at plus odds.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown 34 or more passes in six straight games. On Sunday Night Football, the Chiefs’ best chance at offensive success will come via the quick passing game. That’s because their already weak run game is likely to struggle behind a makeshift O-line. Look for at least 35 attempts.

Two top-tier defenses will square off in Primetime. These are two of the best teams to the under in the league (Texans 9-3, Chiefs 8-4). Despite more than 70% of the public bets on the Over, this total isn’t budging. The Texans are the league’s best defense, and Steve Spagnuolo & the Chiefs are familiar with C.J Stroud. Since 2023, Kansas City is 17-6 to the under at home. Final score prediction Chiefs win 23-16.

The Chiefs offensive line is ravaged by injury, and that's a problem against one of the best defensive fronts in the league. Mahomes had thrown an interception in four straight games before escaping the Dallas loss without a pick, and he had 3+ sacks in all of those games after hitting that mark just once previously. With Houston at 12 interceptions on the season, I think a pick here is more likely than not, so I love being able to get plus odds at FanDuel.

The buy signal flashes for the Texans, now with CJ Stroud back at QB and looking quite menacing as they bring a four-game win streak into Arrowhead. The DeMeco Ryans defense has been ornery all season and has dealt with Patrick Mahomes before, and has allowed 19 or fewer points in five of the last six games. But it's the upside of the offense that intrigues with Stroud back in the lineup last week for the first time since getting KO'd vs. the Broncos on November 1. For the Chiefs, it's been one close game after another this season, with KC mostly losing in those games (1-6 in one-score games), and now leaving itself no room for error to qualify for the playoffs. Play Texans

DraftKings. CJ Stroud has cleared this line in six of eight full games this season. Scrambling at a 7% rate (13th highest of 39 qualified quarterbacks), he’ll face a Chiefs defense that’s allowing 2.3 scrambles per game (7th most) and 17.8 scramble yards per game (10th most). Stroud should be able to clear this line with just two scrambles, but I have him closer to three. I’d bet this up to over 13.5 yards.

It's going to be tough for the Chiefs to move the ball on the Texans defense, but I think the preferred method will be via the pass (as it usually is for KC). While I do expect volume I don't expect efficiency from Mahomes especially with a banged up offensive line. Look for Mahomes to try to pepper the short area for a large portion of this game. There are still 34.5s at MGM and FD but MGM is currently offering the better price between the two.

The Chiefs' offensive line is in a bad state with Josh Simmons out and both Jawaan Taylor and Trey Smith in doubt. It seems like Taylor is tracking toward missing the game because Jaylon Moore is prepping to play right tackle, which puts Wanya Morris at left tackle. His struggles last year was one reason why the Chiefs reconfigured their line to put guard Joe Thuney on the blind side, and I have zero confidence he holds up against this elite Texans defensive front. With the Chiefs' defense not playing at an elite level over the last four games and with C.J. Stroud looking solid in his return last week, this line can't be more than 3 and probably should be a bit lower.