The Green Bay offense has hit the skids. With QB Jordan Love fighting off minor injuries, the offense did not reach 300 yards gained in the past three outings. The Lions, ranked fourth in offense and second in points scored, towers over it. Detroit's O has been clicking (with one exception) since a clunker on openng day against Green Bay. The Lions got more favorable injury news with several players questionable and/or out in recent weeks cleared for action.

I grew up watching the Lions on Turkey Day and it's their biggest home game of the year annually. Both teams are a bit beaten up on a mega-short turnaround. Green Bay QB Jordan Love reportedly has the same injury Baker Mayfield has but is playing through it. Love handed off with his right hand exclusively against the Vikings because of that left shoulder injury. One big hit there. I'm not that concerned with Detroit's play on Sunday as it pretty clearly was overlooking the Giants. And it will be early awaiting payback for a Week 1 loss at Lambeau. All those questionable Lions O-Linemen are active. Matthew Golden and Quay Walker are not for Green Bay.

The Packers’ last six losses, dating to last season, have come by two or three points. Their defense will keep them in the game against a banged-up Lions offense. Look for Jordan Love to hit some big throws against Detroit’s man coverage and for Green Bay to potentially win outright.

The Lions come into this game with five players ruled out, including Brock Wright. With Sam LaPorta on IR, that leaves them incredibly shorthanded at tight end, a position I don't think they'll abandon in the passing game. Dwelley has been the TE3 on the team, and he'll likely split time with Anthony Firkser and Zach Horton, but the latter two are more fullback/TE hybrids. Wright received 11 targets in the last two games with LaPorta sidelined, and while I'm not counting on Dwelley getting 5-6 targets, he probably just needs two to hit this number. Let's hope the snap share read is correct and play the lower Over on Dwelley vs. Firkser, who has been back with the team for 16 days.

The Lions’ struggles to put away the Giants last week likely created some value against the Packers, but let’s not forget that Green Bay was rough against New York two weeks ago, too, and Detroit has largely been dominant at home outside of a loss to Minnesota. The Lions defense is certainly a concern, as is the offensive line against Micah Parsons, but the Packers haven’t seen an offense this potent in 6-8 weeks. Green Bay has given up 27 points per game in its last four on the road, and Detroit is 7-1 this season when it scores at least 21 points.

Since head coach Dan Campbell has taken over offensive play-calling duties, Jahmyr Gibbs has seen an uptick in his target share and targets per routes run. In the last three weeks, Gibbs has averaged a 22.1% target share. Also, with Sam LaPorta now out for the Lions, Gibbs has really helped fill those vacated targets underneath. No matter the game script for the Lions, I like Gibbs to exceed this receiving line.

The Lions have been giving Jahmyr Gibbs a massive target share since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. It has gone from 11.4 percent to 21.6 percent to 28.6 percent, per Fantasy Points. In fact, over the past two games, Gibbs has a 60 percent route share. Detroit won't have Sam LaPorta or Khalif Raymond as secondary targets behind the two starting wideouts. In the first meeting with Green Bay, Jared Goff connected with Gibbs 10 times. Given Green Bay's vaunted pass rush, Goff will be looking to get rid of the ball quickly again.

B365 at -110. Since returning from injury, Christian Watson has emerged as a lead target. While he’s only cleared this line in two of five games, he has 45 receiving yards in all five. Last week, he led the Packers in first read share (33%) and routes run. Schematically, it’s a terrific matchup for Watson, who thrives against both man and single-high safety coverages, which the Lions run at the highest and third highest rates respectively (per FantasyPoints Data). The Packers have three questionable receivers, but I’m not too concerned about it on a short week. Plus, the Packers should be forced into throwing more, as the Lions run defense ranks 9th in DVOA (per FTN). I’d bet this up to over 54.5.