The Colts have been one of the NFL’s best teams, but this is a go-down-with-the-ship pick for the Chiefs, who have lost two straight and are somehow fighting for a wild card spot. Kansas City returns home where it is 4-1 with its lone loss to Philadelphia. Indianapolis is off the bye, but it did not look great in its last two outings. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are the better, more experienced duo, the Chiefs match up nicely to the Colts, and it feels like there’s at least a point of value with this line. Would take this through -4, but a bad week of Mahomes is not enough to push me away from a team that has enough talent to win the AFC.

Last -3 on the board left for KC is at Bet 365. Take Daniel Jones outside of his dome environment in Indy, and he turns back into the QB us Giants fans know all too well. The Chiefs are 11th in defensive rushing DVOA, and if they can contain Colts star RB Jonathan Taylor, Jones could struggle in 3rd and longs against Steve Spagnuolo's blitz-heavy scheme. More than anything, I'm riding with KC in this "back against the wall" spot. The Chiefs were -4.5 favorites against the 8-2 Broncos last week, and disappointed in a 22-19 loss. Now they are -3.5 faves against the 8-2 Colts. Bettors may have trust issues with this 5-5 Chiefs team, but the market is standing firm on them.

Grabbing the last 50.5 I see on the board. Classic Chiefs home under spot. KC are 7-3 to the Under this season, and 4-1 to the Under when playing in Arrowhead. I imagine the Colts will want to employ the “keep Mahomes off the field” game plan, and dial up a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor. I still don’t trust Daniel Jones outside of a dome stadium, and I expect him to be under duress against Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive blitz attack. The Chiefs are still without RB1 Isiah Pacheco, and WR2 Xavier Worthy is banged up. The Colts secondary is solid now with DBs Charvarious Ward, Kenny Moore, and Sauce Gardner all healthy and playing together. 50 feels too high.

Kelce is over this receiving yards line in 5 of his last 6 games, and had 54 yards in the one game he went under during that stretch. The 5-5 Chiefs are in desperation mode, so I expect Mahomes to look for his most familiar target in this important matchup. Colts DC Lou Anarumo’s defenses have been vulnerable against tight ends. Last season, his Bengals defense gave up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and this year the Colts have given up the 5th most. Against the best TE’s they’ve faced this season, Indy gave up 71 rec yards to Trey McBride and 164 to Oronde Gadsden Jr. Play Kelce props.

Writing off the Chiefs? Not yet! Of the five KC losses, all have been in one score games, a complete flip from last season but also illustrating that any slip negligible. Last week's loss at Denver was one of the first times when possession sequenced correctly for the Chiefs deep into the 4th Q, but the Broncos defense made the plays to get Patrick Mahomes off of the field. Though at risk, the Chiefs aren't far from a turnaround. The Colts are a popular pick this week, but we're a bit concerned after watching Daniel Jones turn into his Giants version a few weeks ago at Pittsburgh. We'll be on board more with Indy if the Colts can pull out this one. Play Chiefs

Chiefs safety Chamarri Conner has cleared this prop line in six of 10 games. Sunday, he faces a Colts' team that generates a high rate of tackles for opposing safeties. While Conner has played just 37 percent of his snaps in the box, I'm expecting a higher percentage of box snaps given the matchup with Jonathan Taylor.

What's going on with Daniel Jones and Indy's passng attack? In the past two games alone: six fumbles (half of them turnovers), four interceptions and a dozen sacks for the QB. The trend suggests that the Colts will turn to RB Jonathan Taylor in the midst of a bang-up season, but Kansas City's run defense has been lights-out lately. The Chiefs' offense remains a force at times but is no longer scary. Besides, it might face a star-studded, versatile secondary that appears intact for the first time this season.

Never easy or pleasant fading a player the caliber of Jonathan Taylor, however this is a big number, even for the elite RB. Taking a volume based approach here for a variety of reasons. First, he’s only eclipsed this line in 3/10 games this season. He’s also coming off a massive 32 carry/35 touch performance last week. I also trust this KC defense and offense. I expect KC to do everything in their power to slow down Taylor and force Daniel Jones to beat them, that is the path to containing the Colts. It’s also not a surprise that the Chiefs are a pass funnel and opposing RBs have the fewest rushing attempts against KC.

Over the past three games, the Chiefs have given up 14 catches on 17 targets to opposing running backs. Daniel Jones will be looking to avoid sacks after taking 12 in the past two games. Look for Jonathan Taylor to catch at least three passes in potentially a trailing game script.

The Chiefs' corners have been getting burned outside recently. K.C. would love to sit back in two-high safety looks, but Jonathan Taylor will make that difficult. So I am going back to the well with Alec Pierce. He has 69-plus receiving yards in four straight and has become the NFL's top deep threat. Over that stretch, Daniel Jones has targeted Pierce 35 times.

Honestly I thought the Chiefs would be -4.5 here. That's no disrespect to the Colts at all, but Kansas City is 5-5 and has to win this game or else they legitimately might not make the playoffs. I'm willing to wager on Patrick Mahomes laying three points at home in a game against Daniel Jones in which, if Patrick Mahomes loses, he's staring down the likelihood of not only missing the AFC title game for the first time ever but also missing the playoffs for the first time ever. It's not a perfect matchup, but the Chiefs are coming off a bad road loss to the Broncos so the market is down. It's trying to move up and I want to get them a FG.

Last week the Chiefs came off a bye facing a must-win scenario to stay alive in the division race, and instead Patrick Mahomes looked like he body-switched with Bo Nix. I dropped KC from the top spot in my power ratings to behind the Colts, the No. 1 offense in yards per play and a team with a decent edge over the Chiefs on defense as well. Turnovers have been the only thing to trip up the Indy offense, yet the Chiefs defense managed no turnovers against five of the six top teams its faced, losing four of those games. This game should close no higher than 3 everywhere and I would probably take Indy at that number as well.