Atlanta
Falcons
ATL
Last 5 ATS
W/L8-8
ATS8-8
O/U8-9-0
FINAL SCORE
25
-
31
Indianapolis
Colts
IND
Last 5 ATS
W/L7-9
ATS9-7
O/U9-8-0
Last 5 ATS
8-8
Win /Loss
7-9
8-8
Spread
9-7
8-9-0
Over / Under
9-8-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Richardson remains on the 53-man roster for the Colts.
Shrader has won Indianapolis' kicking job after the Colts cut Blake Grupe on Sunday, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.
Hand has missed most of training camp due to a leg injury, Marc Raimondi of ESPN.com reports.
Dexter (hamstring) was traded to the Falcons on Sunday, NFL reporter Jordan Schultz.
Allen was arrested early Sunday morning and charged with DUI, FOX59 reports.
Allen caught his only target for 24 yards in Saturday's 25-16 preseason loss to the Lions.
McGowan carried the ball four times for 20 yards and caught his only target for five yards in Saturday's 25-16 preseason loss to the Lions.
Richardson completed seven of 10 passes for 80 yards without a touchdown or an interception in Saturday's 25-16 preseason loss to the Lions. He gained zero yards on his only carry.
Branch returned a punt for 18 yards during the Falcons' 17-12 preseason win over the Dolphins on Friday.
Leonard completed three of seven passes for 48 yards and an interception in Saturday's 25-16 preseason loss to the Lions. He added three yards on three carries.
This is a great bounce-back spot for the Colts, which added Sauce Gardner to their solid secondary while fuming from a turnover-led loss to the Steelers. The Falcons have struggled against the run all season, and they may get dominated in the trenches. While Daniel Jones was abhorrent last week, Shane Steichen will utilize his dual-threat abilities to keep Atlanta guessing. Put an eye on his rushing prop. The Colts are an excellent teaser leg with the Lions, too. Favorites have fared quite well in European games, and you never know what you’re going to get from the Falcons.
It feels like the market is a little slow to catch up to Pierce's production over the last three games. During that stretch, Pierce has 13 receptions for 282 yards on 28 targets. Overall, Pierce has gone over this total in five of seven games this season. I think he keeps it rolling against the Falcons in Berlin.
Alec Pierce has shattered this prop total in five of his last six games. He particularly excels against single-high safety coverage, which the Falcons play more than any other team. Look for Pierce to get loose again in Germany.
So here's the thing: Alec Pierce is just ... good. The fourth year wideout is enjoying a legitimate breakout and now we get a little narrative boost with his college teammate and old sparring partner/presumed good friend Sauce Gardner joining him on the roster. Atlanta's given up 199 yards to Pop Douglas and Jaylen Waddle the last two weeks. Pierce profiles as someone who can get loose on this secondary while not being the primary focus of the defense. Would play this up to 59.5 if it steams.
After last week's loss at Pittsburgh, Colts coach Shane Steichen expressed remorse in how he prepped his O-line and lamented not being more balanced on offense. His chance at redemption comes this week against a Falcons pass rush ranked first in blitz rate but has had issues stopping the run. A combination of Jonathan Taylor runs and quick throws from Daniel Jones would work here -- dink-and-dunk throws from Jones aren't anything new, and he could easily follow the footsteps of Tua Tagovailoa from two weeks ago against Atlanta. Tagovailoa had a great game but just 205 yards. I expect a low volume pass game for Jones without a lot of deep shots.
Kyle Pitts has run 32 or more routes in four straight games. He has been targeted 26 times over the past three. Now he faces a Colts' defense that's given up an incredible 441 receiving yards to opposing tight ends the past four games. Atlanta has a condensed group of targets -- Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Pitts each has 52 or more targets, and the next closest is Darnell Mooney with 27. Look for Pitts, in potentially a trailing game script, to clear this number for the third time in four games.
This line is way too low for Tyler Warren even in a difficult matchup against a very stingy Atlanta pass defense that excels covering Tight Ends. Warren is a rare player to begin with and I love the way he’s utilized in Shane Steichen’s RPO scheme. Warren is a matchup nightmare and schemed touches in a way that makes him very difficult to prepare for. The Colts also have a bevy of receiving talent around Warren as well making it difficult to key on him. This is a rare multi unit wager for me.
DraftKings. Even though this line has crept up into the 50s, I’m riding the hot hand with Alec Pierce. The third-year wideout has now cleared this line in five of his last six games. The deep threat is poised to cash in against the Falcons defensive scheme, which features the league’s highest rate of both Cover 3 and single high safety coverages (similar to last week’s smash spot against the Steelers). Against both cover 3 and single-high safety looks Pierce leads the Colts in targets and yards, with a 30% first read rate (per Fantasy Points Data). The Falcons defense is better than Pittsburgh’s, but they have been more susceptible deep lately. I’d bet this up to over 57.5 receiving yards.
