Drake Maye is third in MVP odds, as he should be. He's leading the league in completion % and passer rating with over 91% completion percentage last week against the Titans. He his first in catchable air yards, has the best % on 20+ yard plays and leads the NFL in DVOA against man coverage -- which Cleveland schemes at the 11th highest rate.

We seem to see it every year, a team leaving a vapor trail into midseason. For 2025, that looks like New England. Evidence is mounting that Mike Vrabel has the recipe to get the Patriots back to the playoffs for the first time since 2021, as four wins and covers on the spin would suggest. Included was the rousing 23-20 Sunday night win at Buffalo which firmly established New England as a threat in the AFC East as second-year QB Drake Maye continues to be well-ahead of the NFL learning curve. The Browns will battle for Kevin Stefasnki but falling behind could be a big problem for rookie QB Dillon Gabriel as was the case in Cleveland's last road game at Pittsburgh. Play Patriots

New England has played excellent defense so far this season and will get a chance to throw the kitchen sink at rookie Dillon Gabriel. With Gabriel's inability to push the ball downfield, expect the Pats to load up to stop the Browns run game and render Cleveland an inefficient one-dimensional offense.

DraftKings. Stefon Diggs has cleared this receptions line in three of his last four games, and four of seven games overall. Against man coverage, Diggs has a 28% target share and 35% catch share this season (he’s caught all 12 targets) - pertinent for Sunday, as the Browns employ the most man coverage in the NFL. It should be tough sledding for the Pats ground game to get going, as Cleveland ranks second in run defense EPA (per FTN). So despite the 7-point spread, I do think Drake Maye will need to air it out, and I like Diggs to cash in. I’d bet this up to -145.

While on the surface this appears to be a very difficult matchup for the Patriots passing game against a tough Browns defense featuring an elite pass rush, this looks like a matchup Stefon Diggs could thrive in. It’s highly unlikely the Patriots are going to be able to run on what has been the best run defense in the league so I anticipate the Patriots attacking Cleveland through the air. This bodes well for Diggs who has seen his route participation increase. The Browns also play man coverage at the highest rate in the league which is also a positive for Diggs considering leads the NFL with a 4.65 YPRR against man this season. I also like Diggs reception line here at 4.5 as well.

The Patriots are heavy favorites to secure their fifth straight win, but it won't come easy against a Browns team that brings a tough ground game led by Quinshon Judkins and ranks third in yards per play allowed (4.5). Initially I liked New England to clear their team total of 23.5 points, but based on the injury reports, that could be a struggle. This is easily the best defense Drake Maye has faced this season. New England is a solid playoff contender but it's worth noting the Pats have already played four of the NFL's five worst teams.

New England is on a roll. They have won 4-straight and most notably, 3-straight on the road. Now they return home and I believe they exhale after three straight weeks away from Foxboro and a lot of back-and-forth. The stock could not be much higher on this team right now and I feel the line is inflated. We have already seen 6.5 show up in the market and I believe that is where we will close, if not 6. Cleveland can make NE one dimensional with its ability to stop the run. If they can defend Drake Maye and the passing game, they could win this game outright. I'll take the full 7 points.

FanDuel. Jerry Jeudy has yet to establish a connection with quarterback Dillon Gabriel. In the rookie’s three starts under center, Jeudy’s long catch has gone for only 16 yards. Gabriel only has attempted four deep passes (20+ air yards) out of his 121 dropbacks, and his 6.1 aDOT is the lowest in the NFL amongst qualified quarterbacks. Jeudy will have a tough matchup against the Patriots secondary (namely, Christian Gonzalez).

I grabbed the spread in this game at a number that I didn't think would last, but this is probably my preferred play. Dillion Gabriel had two TDs and four FGs in his first two starts before the Browns exploded for 31 points against the Dolphins last week, but that included two free TDs (one pick-six, one on a 2-yard drive following a turnover) with five drives starting in Miami territory. The Patriots offense is unlikely to give them similar breaks, which makes it seem like 17 is again the ceiling for Cleveland. With Dillon Gabriel on the road and the Patriots having a top-tier rush defense, I think reaching that ceiling will be a challenge.

The Cleveland Browns have a great rush defense and will likely force the Patriots to be more one-dimensional than they prefer. This is in spite of the fact that the Patriots will be playing from the lead. Look for the Browns to stymie the run and create their typical great pass rush, which will lead to Maye getting the ball out quickly in the short area. Don't expect Rhamondre Stevenson and company to be effective in this one and look for an already very accurate quarterback to pepper his targets as an extension of the run game.

The Browns are coming off a blowout win against the Dolphins, but they benefitted heavily from turnovers and didn't look as good running the ball as I expected when I backed them last week. With just 206 yards gained and 3.9 yards per play, I'm still making them one of the lowest teams in my power ratings. As such, they need to be catching at least a touchdown against a Pats team and quarterback that is playing well. I don't see this 6.5 lasting at DraftKings and wouldn't be surprised if this closed on the other side of 7.