Let me say this is only a half position given that we're not getting the best of the number here (it opened 54.5). D'Andre Swift has been battling a groin injury the last few weeks but that doesn't appear to be his biggest threat right now instead it's a rookie RB from Rutgers. I can see this Bears backfield gradually morphing into the same situation Ben Johnson developed in Detroit. That's even before we factor in the match-up against a much healthier Ravens run defense coming out of the bye. Under here for a smaller bet

Derrick Henry has not been the All-World RB this season and it’s fair to wonder if he’s showing signs of decline at this stage of his career. Henry ranks 30th in Success Rate and 45th in Elusive Rating, which could prove to be challenging against a Chicago defense that has been playing better as of late. The Bears rank 6th in EPA allowed per rush and I was surprised this line didn’t drop after Lamar Jackson was unexpectedly ruled out. I’d play this down to 86.5.

With Lamar Jackson officially ruled out for this game, Ravens workhorse RB Derrick Henry will have to carry the water. Without Jackson under center last game, Henry ran for 122 yards against the Rams, despite Baltimore scoring just 3 points. The Bears have shaped up their run defense in recent weeks, but they still rank 28th in rush yards allowed per game (137.7). When Chicago is on the road, that number skyrockets to a league high 180.3 YPG. Coming out of the bye week and sitting at 1-5 in desperation mode, Henry should get 20+ carries against a beatable run defense here.

Coming off a bye, Derrick Henry will be fresh and ready for a huge workload. But he's facing an improved Bears' run defense that's allowed 4.0 and 2.6 yards per carry the past two games. Without Lamar Jackson on the field this season, Henry has yet to break off a run longer than 12 yards. In his first game with Tyler Huntley, Henry ran 24 times for 122 yards against the Rams -- but failed to break a long run.

Since their bye, the Bears are running more outside zone and it's benefitted D'Andre Swift. He's averaged 7.7 yards and 6.5 yards per carry in the two games since, racking up at least 138 yards from scrimmage in each. He's also scored in three straight games (2 rushing, 1 receiving). Although Swift is listed as questionable, I'm expecting him to play and get a normal workload.

Unfortunately, the Ravens play a different game when Lamar is under center. And while the defense may be improved, the offense is just a shell of itself without Jackson. Look for the Bears to take full advantage of the Ravens not having Lamar under center.

Lamar Jackson looks like he's trending toward missing this game, which has brought the spread down from 7 to 3.5 and will likely cause a bigger dip if he's ruled out Sunday. I couldn't pull the trigger on playing Chicago +7 Friday due to the number of injuries the Bears are dealing with, and I worry they'll struggle to score enough against a mostly healthy Ravens defense to cover if Derrick Henry can stake Baltimore to an early lead and put Caleb Williams in a passing script. The better angle for this game is the Under even with the Bears missing two corners as scoring could be a struggle for Chicago.

Baltimore is regaining its health exiting the bye week just as the Bears are regressing with theirs. QB Lamar Jackson is the lone Raven on the injury report, and he practiced fully Friday. Further, Pro Bowl FB Patrick Ricard, a master blocker, is poised to make his season debut. Chicago’s starting CBs, Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon, were ruled out, giving Jackson a soft landing. They join Pro Bowl CB Jaylon Johnson, idle since September, on the sideline. The Ravens scored at a 37-point clip in the first three games before Jackson was hurt. They have been gold in recent post-bye games, taking eight of the last nine SU.

There were some 6s earlier today but Lamar Jackson was a full participant in practice so those are gone. I never really thought he wouldn't play out of the bye (John Harbaugh's off-bye record is crazy-good), but I've also never strained a hamstring. Groin, shoulders, knees, yep, but avoided that one. Probably because I'm slow and can't jump. I will happily eat this $100 for a Chicago win, but I just don't see it on the road against a desperate team. I smell a Nagy-esque blowout.

Lamar Jackson isn't the only Ravens star expected to return from injury Sunday. The list includes Roquan Smith, Ronnie Stanley and others. Chicago enters on a four-game win streak that's been aided by an unsustainable plus-13 turnover margin. Baltimore is at home, off a bye, trying to save its season. Look for this line to climb as it becomes clearer that Jackson will start.