DraftKings. With George Kittle back in the fold, I’m going to fade Jauan Jennings on his reception line. The 49ers receiver has remained under this line in three of four games this season, and is admittedly running at less than 100% health with foot and ankle injuries. He’ll face a very tough Falcons defense that’s allowed the third fewest receiver receptions per game.

There was no value with the 49ers at open, but with the line down three points, it's worth taking the home team. Even with Mac Jones in for Brock Purdy, even with a reduced WR corps, San Francisco continues to deliver explosive plays thanks to Kyle Shanahan’s system. With George Kittle back, Jones has another weapon at his disposal. The loss of Fred Warner hurts, but I don’t see Michael Penix Jr. picking apart the Niners on the road the way Baker Mayfield did at home. Atlanta is traveling cross country in a prove-it situation. The Falcons are getting quite a boost for beating a struggling Bills team with Bijan Robinson running wild. The Niners are being underrated in this value spot.

As good as Saturday football was, not quite the success today. Let's end on a high note hopefully. Short week, trap situation (having upset Buffalo last Monday), playing outdoors and obviously cross-country travel all would seem to work against dome-team Atlanta. Still no Brock Purdy -- frankly, Mac Jones has been better in some ways -- but George Kittle is back. The Niners have won their past three SNF home games. Atlanta is 1-9 in last 10 road games vs. teams multiple games above .500.

Bijan Robinson caught six of eight targets last week vs. Buffalo, and I like him to make at least five grabs Sunday night. He's facing a 49ers' defense missing all-everything linebacker Fred Warner. The Falcons are slight underdogs. In the two games they've lost, Robinson caught six and five passes. For all games this season, Robinson has drawn a 19 percent target share.

I want to target Christian McCaffery's rush + receiving line tonight. He leads running backs with 444 receiving yards. Bijan Robinson, in this Sunday night showdown, is the next closest with receiving yards. While McCaffery hasn't been as efficient on the ground this season, he gets back George Kittle, who is an excellent run blocker. While Kittle may take some receiving yards away from McCaffery, he'll help in the run game. Betting the rush + receiving line gives us multiple outs for the game script to just get total scrimmage yards. McCaffery has 100 or more scrimmage yards in every game this season, and has gone over this line in the last four games. Look for him to go over this line again Sunday night.

The early line last week for the Week 7 game between the Falcons at the 49ers had the home team -4.5, which dropped to -3.5 on Sunday before the 49ers lost at Tampa Bay, which dropped to -3 after the loss and -2.5 following the Falcons Monday night win over the Bills. Circa sportsbook currently has the 49ers -2. The Falcons have won three of the last four meetings with the 49ers, including a 2019 win at San Francisco. There's a lot to review and go over, including the No. 1 defense of the Falcons, allowing 253 yards per game. I'm betting on the new Atlanta defensive stars making the under the play.

The 49ers have been walking wounded all year, with the offense scraping together a passing game on a weekly basis. They'll have to face the second-best defense in net yards per pass attempt. Don't expect the 49ers' 32nd-ranked run game to bail them out either. I would've still thought about playing San Francisco at home if I thought the defense could dictate this game, but with Fred Warner joining Nick Bosa on the sidelines, I don't have much hope for that unit. This will come off 3 quickly, so play it where it's available while you can. I think this should be close to pick 'em.