The Vikings are in a world of hurt on the offensive line with three players out, and as such we should see more two TE or two RB sets as added protection becomes key. With Jordan Addison returning from suspension last week, Thielen's role in the offense dipped to just 12 offensive snaps, and while he was still targeted twice and caught both passes, neither went for longer than six yards. This is the type of prop we'll be sweating all game as it could more easily be ruined in one play than many Unders, but I'm going to bank on a lack of playing time combined with potential inaccuracy from a QB under siege to fade Thielen topping this number.

Vikings safety Josh Metellus racked up nine combined stops last week vs. the Steelers, and this projects as another good matchup versus a run-heavy Browns' attack. Metellus has played 68 snaps near the line of scrimmage and 30 more defending the slot (98 of 228 total). Harrison Smith is being eased back in (17 snaps last week), so I like Metellus to come through again.

The Vikings are down their starting QB, three starting offensive linemen and top pass-rusher Andrew Van Ginkel. That they are still favored in London tells you how sorry the Browns are. But this might well end in a Tottenham Hotspur-type soccer score, so I'll take that top-rated Cleveland defense getting the hook past a key number of +4 (21-17, etc.). I rather like Dillon Gabriel even if he struggles Sunday against a blitz-happy team.

Rookie Dillon Gabriel steps in for the struggling Joe Flacco, coming off an FBS-record 63 career starts. We saw Jaxson Dart get a win in his NFL debut for the Giants... why not Gabriel to keep it close? Let's be clear though -- this is about the defense. The Browns rank #2 in DVOA and pressure rate, which could spell trouble for a battered Vikings offensive line that surrendered six sacks last week. While Wentz faces heavy pressure, Cleveland’s defense might keep things close, and Gabriel’s debut could provide an offensive spark after Flacco ranked dead last in passer rating, completion %, and EPA per dropback ... on top of having the second most picks. Let's back the dogs in London.

I'm surprised to see 4.5 available as I like Cleveland at +3.5 too - anything better than a field goal. For the second straight week, I am happy to fade Carson Wentz. Dillon Gabriel will face a tough defense in his first NFL start but the offense can't be any worse than it has been. The Browns have the best defense in the league and I believe they keep this game close and will have an excellent shot to win it outright.

B365 at -120. Jordan Mason has remained under this line in three of four games this season. While excelling as a runner, he hasn’t shown much as a receiver in his career (he was under this line in 5/8 starts last season). Plus, Zavier Scott, a converted wide receiver, was featured much more in the passing game last week, running 23 routes to Mason’s 20. I expect Scott (43 yards on 7 targets) to continue to see third down and two-minute work. And this is a brutal matchup for whomever is at running back. The Browns have only allowed one running game back catch of more than 8 yards this season, holding the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs, Justice Hill and Chase Brown under this line.

QB Dillon Gabriel not only must make his NFL starting debut for Cleveland but in an overseas setting. That heightens the challenge for the rookie, who was not exactly an early-round pick (94th overall). He assumes the reins of a team averaging a measly 14 ppg. An unknown is how the Vikings will fare in the second of an unprecendented two consecutive games in Europe. (Here's thinking they will adjust fine.) Whereas Minnesota is managing a number of injuries, that is overshadowed by the uncertain status of one Brown -- DE Myles Garrett. His absence would reduce Cleveland's five-star defense to a cut above average.

Whether or not the Browns go with Joe Flacco or one of the rookie QBs, the results will still be the same vs this Vikings defense: struggle. This is a defense that's doing a really good job of getting to the QB and turning the ball over. Offensively, right now I can trust Carson Wentz over Joe Flacco or Dillon Gabriel.

The Vikings had no answers for the Steelers in Dublin, falling behind 24-6 before a late rally made the score respectable. The offense has another tough matchup this week, but it's hard to see the defense surrendering anywhere near 5.9 yards per play to the Browns offense. Kevin Stefanski was noncommittal to Joe Flacco remaining starter, and with the Browns' season already looking over it may be time to start auditioning the rookie quarterbacks. No matter who starts, it's unlikely the passing game has any success against this Vikings unit. Staying in Europe an entire week seemed to benefit the Jaguars each of the last two years as well, and since I doubt this falls to -3, I'm jumping on it now.